Cable Update (GBPUSD)

what are your thoughts on fib 61 retracement, from here

fiuh...such a massive down move..

I relocate and still defend below this fib 50. The last fort.

141 600 potential buy back area from the low then a drop back near to the low and then a range out constant low buy back and sell again into asia and into Europe and uk time tomorrow.

Need a clear above 1.4120 and a strong support for more upside

...: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post10906040

According to ANZ analysts, the pound has a small upside potential from current levels, with the pair GBP/USD likely to exceed 1.45. "The transitional agreement developed by the EU and the UK reduced the likelihood of the worst results of trade negotiations between them. Sterling may become more receptive to the upcoming British economic data. Nevertheless, we do not believe that the agreement for the transition period justifies further reduction of the risk premium that arose after the referendum on Brexit. Therefore, the pound can stabilize around current levels.

One of the main consequences of this "risk premium" is that the sensitivity of GBP to the differentials of real yields (bonds) has sharply decreased. A recent signal from the Bank of England (BoE) suggests that if the data continues to improve, then we should expect tightening of the policy, with the possibility of raising the rate in May. And this decision has been largely appreciated. It justifies the current levels of the pound, but it is not a catalyst for further sustained strengthening of the currency. These two points together suggest that, even if the Bank of England in the coming months will follow the path of tightening monetary policy, sterling is unlikely to strongly strengthen. Our base scenario for sterling assumes that the currency will reach a maximum against the dollar around 1.45, so further growth looks unlikely.

Our analysis shows that at present the premium for risk in sterling, formed after the referendum, is unnecessarily high. It is important to note that the sensitivity of GBP to interest rates may have decreased. These structural changes are likely to continue because of the continuing uncertainty about the future international trade in goods and services of the United Kingdom. In addition, recent trends in the dynamics of capital indicate some decrease in pressure on the sterling, especially in relation to the euro. Considering all of the above, the pound sterling should reach a peak around 1.45 (and the 0.88 mark should be the lower limit for EUR/GBP), even though the Bank of England will actually raise rates, "experts said.

Well I see this morning my 20 pips did not pay. Had I not shut down and gone to bed I would have taken the trade at the 40685 and made another good profit.

Couple of things of interest this morning firstly on the 5 min chart below.

Yesterday the bears found support and took out the 41112 bear resistance only to be stopped at the 40685 bear resistance. From this point on the bulls pushed up to stop the average making the LL just in time to make the whole move was a bearish failure.

The interesting thing here is the bulls found support at exactly the same level as the previous 41112. Of all the pips it could have been I find this amazing how the market performs with such accuracy.

From this bearish failure we would now assume bullish success but I must also mention this is not always the case because both sides of the fence can fail causing the market to range for a while until it works itself out.

Fascinating stuff hey!

So here is my current 5 min chart next I will look at the 1 hour. (Just waiting for it to finish)

Ok on the 1 hour we see the bears have failed by a long way to make the LL average so here we have a situation of both bullish and bearish failures in other words we have a range we have to break free of. We should see some side movement here for a while the establish a tighter range than the averages.

The bears tried very hard but failed so there is still heaps of bullish support in this current market but we now have to sit on the fence and wait to let them slog it out so at best we are back to scalping again.

Note how even with this biggish bear move they were unable to find support and hold it.

We need to wait and see which side finds support before we have proof of direction.

Gu long term 1.45-1.47

Pound will most likely drop to around the 1.40 mark as the dollar starts to come back. Short term I'd be looking for a sell around the 1.42 to 1.425 levels.

I'm going to reap all the averaging longs at 1.4210 and preparing for shorting

Gee wiz more lines than Wigan railway station.

It must take 10 minutes just to move all the stops or do you have a special tool for this?

Why will it most likely, what is the evidence for that move?

Thanks nala for the great analysis! Most likely I'll wait for a break out to get a clearer market direction as my scalping isn't good enough. I can get 5-10pips here and there but tend to be too greedy to lose it all :/ Will learn more from you on how to be patient and calm ^^

It's unfortunate that you logged off earlier yesterday I (and some others I believe) managed to reap some nice profits to long at 40755

May I know how to get the 40685 support? I couldn't find it as the best I can to get the level is at 40745 [found ]

LOL

32 positions to paste the SL price manually.

Shorts today

Ha ha ha my heart bleeds for you

this quote makes me chuckle

"We are in a business of making mistakes. We cannot be right all the time."


absolutely right!

Looking to long on euro usd later on