We cannot be sure of what the market will do. Maybe I absorbed too much from Taleb (indirectly), that "black swan" stuff... I see DIBS as a great example of playing with convexity: risk small and wait for the big, without trying to foresee the unforeseeable.
"UNDERSTANDING IS A POOR SUBSTITUTE FOR CONVEXITY": https://www.edge.org/conversation/na...-antifragility
Edit: external link
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."