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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #11,221
  • Edited 7:46pm Mar 22, 2018 8:34am | Edited 7:46pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
UJ hit 1:1 effortlessly....
Pity, woke up too late for that... Even though I *believe* UJ will start an uptrend in the next days/weeks, I would absolutely have gone short tomorrow morning.

We cannot be sure of what the market will do. Maybe I absorbed too much from Taleb (indirectly), that "black swan" stuff... I see DIBS as a great example of playing with convexity: risk small and wait for the big, without trying to foresee the unforeseeable.

"UNDERSTANDING IS A POOR SUBSTITUTE FOR CONVEXITY": https://www.edge.org/conversation/na...-antifragility

Edit: external link
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,222
  • Mar 23, 2018 4:17am Mar 23, 2018 4:17am
i like selling or buying breakouts at new lows/new highs
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Price itself it's an indicator
  • #11,223
  • Mar 23, 2018 4:25am Mar 23, 2018 4:25am
i like selling or buying breakouts at new lows/new highs because most of the time you will found very fast if it's a wrong trade or not, and if the trade its right then many people will rush to close the traade because they have stops over thern and price will continue to go further in the direection of the breakout.
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Price itself it's an indicator
  • #11,224
  • Mar 26, 2018 2:35pm Mar 26, 2018 2:35pm
I have been carrying backtests in dibs on four hour charts,I came up with an exit strategy,demo traded it for four months and forward tested it for three months in a small account.I also have three year of backtests,exit is the secret. Personal mail me if you need info and verification.
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File Type: xlsx philo TRADING (Recovered).xlsx   19 KB | 475 downloads
File Type: pdf 3month statment.pdf   44 KB | 679 downloads
  • #11,225
  • Edited 3:34am Mar 27, 2018 2:01am | Edited 3:34am
took longs in EU and GU, risking 15 on each....both trading well above last weeks closes....EU hit 1/1, so its a free trade, GU has not....tough to buy the highs, really....both looked like bull flags to me, so I went on them....also keeping an eye on UJ which is on the bull side of its weekly...


edit...GU kicked me out, done with it for today..

edit 2...stopped out of the balance on EU...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #11,226
  • Mar 27, 2018 3:03am Mar 27, 2018 3:03am
hello guys am new here where can i download the DIBS method indicator? send me the link plz
  • #11,227
  • Mar 27, 2018 7:43am Mar 27, 2018 7:43am
Quoting mutungu
hello guys am new here where can i download the DIBS method indicator? send me the link plz
check page 1, there is an indicator there
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,228
  • Mar 27, 2018 1:16pm Mar 27, 2018 1:16pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
took longs in EU and GU, risking 15 on each....both trading well above last weeks closes....EU hit 1/1, so its a free trade, GU has not....tough to buy the highs, really....both looked like bull flags to me, so I went on them....also keeping an eye on UJ which is on the bull side of its weekly...
Yes, tough. I even ignore DIBS signals if it moves further than 40 pips from the daily open. It happened to EU yesterday, it would have been stopped today anyway.

GU didn't give any signal in the last 3 days. Sometimes it's annoying to watch big moves from outside... but I prefer to keep away from any trade, as obvious as it can be, unless it's related to DIBS.

Month end + holiday: crazy mix. As much as I hate it, I already can see beautiful positions be stopped due to volatility from today till Friday - then, on Monday, a nice and strong trend will start and we will be out. As this point I must quote King Crimson (from "Epitaph"):

Quote
Confusion will be my epitaph
As I crawl a cracked and broken path
If we make it we can all sit back and laugh
But I fear tomorrow I'll be crying
LOL
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,229
  • Mar 28, 2018 5:18am Mar 28, 2018 5:18am
Quoting harvest3r
{quote} Yes, tough. I even ignore DIBS signals if it moves further than 40 pips from the daily open. It happened to EU yesterday, it would have been stopped today anyway. GU didn't give any signal in the last 3 days. Sometimes it's annoying to watch big moves from outside... but I prefer to keep away from any trade, as obvious as it can be, unless it's related to DIBS. Month end + holiday: crazy mix. As much as I hate it, I already can see beautiful positions be stopped due to volatility from today till Friday - then, on Monday, a nice and strong...

interesting about your 40 pips filter, or maybe a percentage of ATR even...

yesterday was one BE, one loss...today, long UJ at 105.65, risking 20, about to get half off, the rest will try for 106.40....good luck...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #11,230
  • Mar 28, 2018 6:58am Mar 28, 2018 6:58am
Quoting philemon123
I have been carrying backtests in dibs on four hour charts,I came up with an exit strategy,demo traded it for four months and forward tested it for three months in a small account.I also have three year of backtests,exit is the secret. Personal mail me if you need info and verification. {image} {image} {image} {file} {image}
Are you trading on H1 or H4? And do you close the entire order instead of closing half of it at 1:1, as per the original DIBS rules?
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,231
  • Edited 2:18pm Mar 28, 2018 7:15am | Edited 2:18pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} interesting about your 40 pips filter, or maybe a percentage of ATR even...
I was "born" as a counter trader, so it's still difficult for me to buy tops/sell bottoms, even though I consider m3rlin's last post (at the beginning of the page) quite interesting and worth a try. I know I might be wrong and could be missing profits. As the time goes by and the method matures, this "protection" might be removed.

Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote}yesterday was one BE, one loss...today, long UJ at 105.65, risking 20, about to get half off, the rest will try for 106.40....good luck...
Got that UJ too, it's getting nice with +50 pips. By the way, we are not only ending a month - it's a quarter end AND financial year end in Japan. If the yen buy flows start to get cut, we can see a big up move.

Missed a GU entry, but would have been stopped anyway. EU gave a sell signal @1.2386 so I left a pending order.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,232
  • Mar 28, 2018 2:34pm Mar 28, 2018 2:34pm
I'm so sorry, couldn't resist: stopped UJ @107.80 after it reached 107.95. It went up too fast (IMHO).

Some folks are talking stuff about 10-yr notes and S&P500, which usually follow the UJ movements - if they are right, stocks must recover and rally (unlikely) or UJ must go down. Anyway, I will try to enter long again at the next possible oportunity.

My EU short was taken and looks nice. Moved the stop to +60 pips. Very tight. Whatever.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,233
  • Mar 29, 2018 4:20am Mar 29, 2018 4:20am
Quoting Scchplendid
{quote} Hello, May I ask what setting you use for the Kijun-Sen? I am trying to make a living from trading double inside bars but struggling with two things: 1) Finding a decent indicator with an alert. 2) Identifying how not to get caught on false breakouts when a double inside bar occurs. Thank you Scchplendid
Ever since you pointed out to me how harsh I was I have been looking out for double inside bars for you. Here's one:
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Gone to a better place
  • #11,234
  • Apr 2, 2018 12:18pm Apr 2, 2018 12:18pm
Even though it's holiday on many markets, it's still possible that monthly trends may start today. So there is no time to rest.

Two entries were triggered on GU. The first one was a long @1.4067 - a loss. The second one was a short @1.4039 - still open.

EU had a long triggered @1.2331 but got stopped at BE. Now it's heading south without any DIBS signal. What a pity.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,235
  • Apr 3, 2018 4:13am Apr 3, 2018 4:13am
I have high hopes for this little inside bar, formed on a retest of the high of yesterday, and a few pips above the daily support level of 1.4 which recently just bounced off of:

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Gone to a better place
  • #11,236
  • Apr 3, 2018 4:11pm Apr 3, 2018 4:11pm
Quoting smikester
I have high hopes for this little inside bar, formed on a retest of the high of yesterday, and a few pips above the daily support level of 1.4 which recently just bounced off of: {image}
It was beautiful. Pity that it hit a wall and bounced back.


I made a mistake on EU: didn't put a short position on @1.2285 because I *thought* the inside bar was "too big" in comparison with the previous bar. Who would come up with such a stupid crazy nonsense? After it moved down by 20 pips, I decided, out of FOMO, to open an market short order...

Funny enough, I checked some videos from Mark Douglas during the weekend. He is the author of "Trading in the Zone", which seems to be quite recommended on the trading circles. One of the things Mark said: professional traders don't think - they know their edge, they know their methodology, so they don't have to think *if* they should enter a trade or not. More: we might be sure our "system" has an edge, but we cannot be sure which trade will be a winner or a loser, so there is no point in choosing which signal to execute or not.

Since we never know who might be reading our posts, here comes a call to the unexperienced and/or unsuccessful traders (like myself): listen to Mark Douglas.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,237
  • Apr 3, 2018 5:16pm Apr 3, 2018 5:16pm
Quoting harvest3r
{quote} . I made a mistake on EU: didn't put a short position on @1.2285 because I *thought* the inside bar was "too big" in comparison with the previous bar. Who would come up with such a stupid crazy nonsense?.
I thought the same and didn't take it. Also on EU was nice pin bar on swing high. I noticed a few times, when there was an inside bar, it was on swing high or low and price reversed and moved back good distance. But because it was against the day open price I didn't trade it. This is something I'll look for closely.
  • #11,238
  • Apr 5, 2018 7:14am Apr 5, 2018 7:14am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Ever since you pointed out to me how harsh I was I have been looking out for double inside bars for you. Here's one: {image}
There is another valid double inside bar on the Dow Jones right now.


Back to Forex: there are active DIBS trades on all four majors at the moment, all of them are long USD. Interesting.

P.S.: no, I don't trade the "hot hand" only. I still struggle with that concept
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,239
  • Apr 10, 2018 6:54am Apr 10, 2018 6:54am
Did anyone catch that?
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"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,240
  • Apr 11, 2018 6:07am Apr 11, 2018 6:07am
Quoting harvest3r
Did anyone catch that? {image}
Good work. I did it too. Considering using the 20dma to trail this one, currently at 1.2327.
Gone to a better place
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