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  • #61
  • Mar 25, 2018 9:52am Mar 25, 2018 9:52am
Quoting KeenPips
Equating news to sole cause of market movement can be misleading. A piece of data is only important to the market to the extent of the market's perception of the data. KP

Lol cad cpi y/y was over 2% on Friday and caused the the cad to do over 80 pips. The boc will likely be forced to hike rates which will cause a 300 pip move on all cad pairs. Economic data is taken very seriously and plays a massive part in volatility
  • #62
  • Mar 25, 2018 9:56am Mar 25, 2018 9:56am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} Am I wrong are are you naive? So, where does Blomberg and the rest gets the news? Do you think the employment number counting end is the same moment it is published, or the numbers are prepared a "bit" ahead? How does GDP or CPI worked out? Fell free to disagree but money buys information, connections. And information isn't equal to all, just like nothing else is equal in the world, contrary to what you made believe. As for your Pearce example...you keep mixing retail with big money. Big money isn't scalping the news for 4k. But hey,...

Hmmm so on Monday I got a squawk in the morning saying the UK has reached a transition deal with the eu and the pound rallied more than 100 pips. Does that sound like a weak system or naive trade. I guess all them prop firms paying for ransquawk and other higher level feeds are wasting money. Bloomberg terminal is 25k per year for 1 user so the price tells u the value it adds.
  • #63
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:00am Mar 25, 2018 10:00am
Quoting RedWingFan
{quote} Maybe I'm reading this wrong but there are many examples of price cracking and showing weakness well before bad news. And the opposite where a rebound starts to happen before real news starts to find its way to the news outlets. And I'm referencing longer term trading and not short term trading. (day trading) So we might be talking apples and oranges

Its a very subjective matter when looking at fundamentals. When trading jpy pairs for example they mainly get traded as safe havens or when there is risk on sentiment.

Anybody who would trade a jpy on a swing for more than day has got big balls because expect random drawdown
  • #64
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:03am Mar 25, 2018 10:03am
Quoting ReverseFlash
RANsquawk: nice, fast, cheap, it will make your life better...
People just need to give it a chance an learn how to use it. Most of my trades are based on the sentiment I read on the opening news ransquawk release on their headline feed at 6ish am every morning. The way you can make pips on jpy pairs by reading what happened in the Asia market or over night is priceless because it tells you how much driver a currency could have.
  • #65
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:07am Mar 25, 2018 10:07am
Quoting foobar
{quote} How do you know the market was pricing in for 4 hikes this year? It's only obvious on hind sight because market sold off.
Ok so if you watched Powell's induction for the fed way before Fomc you'l see that the dollar gained serious strength because there was a mention of 4 hikes and he was very bullish. I can' remember what day it was but it' on the calendar here somewhere. Find the day and look at the chart and you'l see. It happened month end of February.

The dollar sold off beause we didn' get 4 hikes as 3 was already priced in by traders so the dollar sold off mainly for profit taking. The market didn't take him as being super dovish otherwise the eur/USD would have done 200 pips.
  • #66
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:08am Mar 25, 2018 10:08am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} People just need to give it a chance an learn how to use it. Most of my trades are based on the sentiment I read on the opening news ransquawk release on their headline feed at 6ish am every morning. The way you can make pips on jpy pairs by reading what happened in the Asia market or over night is priceless because it tells you how much driver a currency could have.
You right sir, they predicted the Swiss Unpegging, Brexit and Trump's election.
  • #67
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:14am Mar 25, 2018 10:14am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Ok so if you watched Powell's induction for the fed way before Fomc you'l see that the dollar gained serious strength because there was a mention of 4 hikes and he was very bullish. I can' remember what day it was but it' on the calendar here somewhere. Find the day and look at the chart and you'l see. It happened month end of February. The dollar sold off beause we didn' get 4 hikes as 3 was already priced in by traders so the dollar sold off mainly for profit taking. The market didn't take him as being super dovish otherwise the eur/USD...
Nope he wasn't super bullish because the USD rallied and then sold off easily and kept selling after it. Was trading it.
Why don't you make calls for next week markets ? It's not helpful to talk about the past.
Say what news you expect and how many pips move it is. Usually by the time news get released like CAD CPI the pair will have rallied so much that it makes it risky to enter.
  • #68
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:18am Mar 25, 2018 10:18am
Stocks founded:

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/first-company-issue-stock-dutch-east-india.asp
The Dutch East India Co. was the first company to offer shares of its business to the public, effectively conducting the world's first IPO (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/ipo.asp). It also played an integral role in modern history's first market crash (https://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/). The Dutch East India Co.—often called VOC, short for its Dutch name: Vereenigde Oost-Indische Compagnie—was formed in 1602 by a royal charter granting a 20-year monopoly (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/monopoly.asp) on trade with the East Indies and sovereign rights in any newly discovered territories.

When its founded, trading was NOT technical but fundamental. FA makes d direction, TA gives d nominal entry. Discussing which is better is probably d dumbest discussion of trading history
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
  • #69
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:22am Mar 25, 2018 10:22am
Quoting foobar
{quote} Nope he wasn't super bullish because the USD rallied and then sold off easily and kept selling after it. Was trading it. Why don't you make calls for next week markets ? It's not helpful to talk about the past. Say what news you expect and how many pips move it is. Usually by the time news get released like CAD CPI the pair will have rallied so much that it makes it risky to enter.

What are you talking about? On the day of his induction the dollar gained strength whislt he was speaking. It did not sell off after.

The only day it sold off was for Fomc last week because we didn't get 4 hikes.

I have already said in this thread that the eur gbp will will rally vs usd. Next Friday if dollar has beaten those pairs feel free to throw egg on my face. Hopefully we don' get ground breaking news to strengthen usd.

If nafta concludes next week then the dollar is going to take a beating.
  • #70
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:24am Mar 25, 2018 10:24am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} It is not really an art. Like I suggested, use the COT and an EMA that makes sense. The EMA is the median line between bulls and bears. Above it you are paying a premium, below it, you are paying a discount. Price will revert to a mean usually in an attempt to find value. Retailers over think a lot of stuff. The institutions are run by humans, just like us.
I would actually dispute the bulls and bears notion of EMA.

My guess is that the EMA has its roots in time series analysis. Something called exponential smoothing. Its purpose is to filter out noise and only show the main trend of price.
If im not wrong its mostly just for a general sense of where price is likely to trend towards. And shouldn't be use as a trigger to buy/sell.

The EMA which trading platforms offers are kind of limited in a way. The statisticians are able to adjust something called the "alpha", which basically determines how sensitive the EMA output is to the most recent price.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #71
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:24am Mar 25, 2018 10:24am
Quoting mr.brown
Stocks founded: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/first-company-issue-stock-dutch-east-india.asp The Dutch East India Co. was the first company to offer shares of its business to the public, effectively conducting the world's first IPO (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/ipo.asp). It also played an integral role in modern history's first market crash (https://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/). The Dutch East India Co.—often called VOC, short for its Dutch name: Vereenigde Oost-Indische Compagnie—was...

Lol thank you Mr Brown

You'e usually Mr controversy but I salute you for that info.
  • #72
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:25am Mar 25, 2018 10:25am
Quoting synicz
{quote} I would actually dispute the bulls and bears notion of EMA. My guess is that the EMA has its roots in time series analysis. Something called exponential smoothing. Its purpose is to filter out noise and only show the main trend of price. If im not wrong its mostly just for a general sense of where price is likely to trend towards. And shouldn't be use as a trigger to buy/sell. The EMA which trading platforms offers are kind of limited in a way. The statisticians are able to adjust something called the "alpha", which basically determines...

Mate I'm not even a big fan of ema but they do have it's place on higher time frames but I will use them in line with fundamentals
  • #73
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:29am Mar 25, 2018 10:29am
Quoting ReverseFlash
{quote} You right sir, they predicted the Swiss Unpegging, Brexit and Trump's election.
I hope you caught the brexit news early morning on Monday which caused the rally? I managed to get the pull back on gbp/nzd and hedged the trade vs gbp/aud just in case the rbnz minutes flopped the trade.
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  • #74
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:32am Mar 25, 2018 10:32am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol thank you Mr Brown You'e usually Mr controversy but I salute you for that info.
not anymore
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
  • #75
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:33am Mar 25, 2018 10:33am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Mate I'm not even a big fan of ema but they do have it's place on higher time frames but I will use them in line with fundamentals
Neither am I haha. But then again it does have its use. Just not as massive as most people tend to make it out to be I guess.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #76
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:38am Mar 25, 2018 10:38am
Quoting mr.brown
{quote} not anymore

I hope everything is good with the Eur/USD forum haven't been in there in a while.

I hope you like this image for eur/USD.

I think eur will bully the usd this week.
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  • #77
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:44am Mar 25, 2018 10:44am
This is a fab short outlook article on the gbp/usd it's going up this week as we expect two hikes this year.

Bullish on Sterling https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-23/bullish-on-sterling
  • #78
  • Mar 25, 2018 10:59am Mar 25, 2018 10:59am
Quoting kk100
{quote} I dont understand you are using oscilator and moving averages. and your topic is opposite
This is not my image but I chose to focus on the writing on the chart as it was posted by a fundamental trader I know. I agree with the trade 100% but I don' focus on the indicators on their chart.

You'l also see it's not the same broker I use.
  • #79
  • Mar 25, 2018 11:34am Mar 25, 2018 11:34am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} It's alot harder to get burnt when you are trading in the same direction as the major players. For example just before Fomc the big boys were buying dollar to position themselves as they expected 4 hikes. If we had used the same fundamentals not long after it would have been harder for us to get burnt.
Trading in the same direction of big traders is great and all but, they can withstand 300,400 pips opposite of their direction, can you?
What i mean is they are long term, if you want to be in and out for profit its not for you.
  • #80
  • Mar 25, 2018 11:37am Mar 25, 2018 11:37am
Quoting synicz
{quote} Ahhh I see. I think what you may be referencing to is price momentum. But do correct me if im wrong! In that case I do agree that sometimes price drift a certain direction before an important news release, and the movements accelerates at the release of the news.
That's right, my friend! If you ask me what portion of fundamentals I use in my trading, i'll answer I use like "if some important event or news or NFP, etc are coming, whatever outcome will be there may be volatility as before, as after that". Examining technical side of the market is easier than fundamental one. Because no one knows how people will react to that, especially press conferences (answer-question part). But you can find an "answer" in technical side almost always. I do believe there are pretty smart economists out there with decent university degree who can anticipate some economic indicator numbers (i think that's why we have "forecast" part of its). But no one can predict what Powell, Corbin, Kuroda, Dragi and s. on will tell about economy situations. We have "checkpoints" like bank meetings in order to see which way to drift. But truth is "not every wave move the ship far away".
Think like an investor, Act as a speculator. Ferid H.
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