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Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

  • #25
  • Mar 25, 2018 12:22am Mar 25, 2018 12:22am
Are you suggesting trading on major news release?
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #26
  • Mar 25, 2018 12:29am Mar 25, 2018 12:29am
Quoting AlastorFate
Are you suggesting trading on major news release?
Fundamentals isn't about trading news releases its about knowing what is driving the market which will put you in the right direction for the foreseeable term.

For example this week EUR will strengthen against the USD because the EUR came out with positive fundamentals regarding hiking and USD ultimately failed to show bullish talk in the FOMC and dismissed 4 rate hikes this year.

Trading risk events is not the same as trading fundamentals. I do trade and profit heavily from news releases but you need to pay for a professional service to do this profitably.

One of the strongest fundamental trends that can be seen in the last few weeks is GBP/CAD. GBP strong fundamental because they are hiking. CAD weak due to nafta and trade wars. GBP/CAD has sky rocket and I made some good pips of this.
  • #27
  • Mar 25, 2018 1:20am Mar 25, 2018 1:20am
This is great to see someone is appreciating the art of fundamentals, I am currently scalping with the 5 minutes and I am attempting to make a transition to the fundamentals, I have started looking at the commitment of traders reports and the next step for me is to combine it with fundamental analysis

Are there any cheaper (or free) preliminary steps I can take before subscribing to Ransqwuak?
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #28
  • Edited 2:23am Mar 25, 2018 2:04am | Edited 2:23am
Quoting forexin101
This is great to see someone is appreciating the art of fundamentals, I am currently scalping with the 5 minutes and I am attempting to make a transition to the fundamentals, I have started looking at the commitment of traders reports and the next step for me is to combine it with fundamental analysis Are there any cheaper (or free) preliminary steps I can take before subscribing to Ransqwuak?
You might find some useful material in the links here (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=623836). There's a link there to a thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=519629) of jakeparkin's; as far as I can tell, he uses a similar approach and logic to Samson85 here.

For possible alternative newsfeeds to RANsquawk, see posts #14, #16, #17, #18, #24 etc in this thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4703729#post4703729). Not sure how many of these are still operating. Some apparently have free versions that are 5 mins delayed, and paid-for versions that are live.
  • #29
  • Mar 25, 2018 2:18am Mar 25, 2018 2:18am
Surely posted equity curves should match the equity curves on the posters' home page to have any credibility, rather than having the recent droopy tail removed.

Live accounts rather than demo also show longer term confidence.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #30
  • Mar 25, 2018 2:40am Mar 25, 2018 2:40am
Quoting hanover
{quote}You might find some useful material in the links here (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=623836). There's a link there to a thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=519629) of jakeparkin's; as far as I can tell, he uses a similar approach and logic to Samson85 here. For possible alternative newsfeeds to RANsquawk, see posts #14, #16, #17, #18, #24 etc in this thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4703729#post4703729). Not sure how many of these are still operating....
Open up an FXPro demo account and you get access to Livesquawks feed. Its not delayed.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #31
  • Mar 25, 2018 3:04am Mar 25, 2018 3:04am
Quoting forexin101
This is great to see someone is appreciating the art of fundamentals, I am currently scalping with the 5 minutes and I am attempting to make a transition to the fundamentals, I have started looking at the commitment of traders reports and the next step for me is to combine it with fundamental analysis Are there any cheaper (or free) preliminary steps I can take before subscribing to Ransqwuak?

Forexlive.com will give you live instant impactful data and it will come to your phone asap.

Visit there site and it will give you the option to subscribe for free.

Ransquawk is free for 2 weeks trial.

Jarratt davis is the best for teaching fundamentals on YouTube.
  • #32
  • Mar 25, 2018 3:05am Mar 25, 2018 3:05am
Quoting hanover
{quote}You might find some useful material in the links here (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=623836). There's a link there to a thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=519629) of jakeparkin's; as far as I can tell, he uses a similar approach and logic to Samson85 here. For possible alternative newsfeeds to RANsquawk, see posts #14, #16, #17, #18, #24 etc in this thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4703729#post4703729). Not sure how many of these are still operating....
This is very useful information.

Thanks for this.
  • #33
  • Mar 25, 2018 3:13am Mar 25, 2018 3:13am
Quoting hanover
{quote}You might find some useful material in the links here (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=623836). There's a link there to a thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=519629) of jakeparkin's; as far as I can tell, he uses a similar approach and logic to Samson85 here. For possible alternative newsfeeds to RANsquawk, see posts #14, #16, #17, #18, #24 etc in this thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4703729#post4703729). Not sure how many of these are still operating....

Hahahahahahahah that private message you sent me had me rolling on the floor. That guy is such a clown it's unbelievable.

I posted this thread just so people knows what drives markets and how long the sentiment and fundamentals will last.

How's this years trading gone for you so far?
  • #34
  • Mar 25, 2018 3:50am Mar 25, 2018 3:50am
Lets apply some logical thinking to this.

We all accept the it's the institutions (Banks, market markers, Central Banks) who move and drive price. We all accept that Institutions will only buy something that they view is cheap or sell something that they view is expensive. ie They will only buy at a discount and sell at a premium.

Now we must ask ourselves on what basis do they perceive value.

If we say its technicals then we are saying that its technical indicators that indicate value.
If that is the case then the following conversations are happening in these institutions.
Head of Strategy - Hey Guy we have $2bn to invest in the EUR. Do we buy or sell it?
Trading Guy - Ah I think we should sell it. We are in the 5th wave of a overbought move and the stochastic is red.
Or
Warren Buffett - Hey bring me the 5min chart on Google, I want to see if what the MACD is doing.

If we say its fundamentals then we accept that institutions perception of value is driven by changes, or more importantly expected changes, in the fundamental outlook of a countries economic state.
Then the following conversations are happening in the institutions
Head of Strategy - Hey Guy we have $2bn to invest in the EUR. Do we buy or sell it?
Trading Guy - I think we should sell it. The expected inflationary numbers are not coming through in the CPI, PMI numbers and we anticipate that they will need to keep the QE programme in place for longer and push out the date for any interest rate increases by another 2 years.


Which do you think is more likely?


(*NOTE - I am not saying you cannot make money just using technical analysis)
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #35
  • Mar 25, 2018 4:04am Mar 25, 2018 4:04am
Fundamental Analysis ==> Direction
Technical Analysis ==> Entry/Exit Levels
No guts, no glory
  • #36
  • Mar 25, 2018 4:09am Mar 25, 2018 4:09am
Quoting Samson85
Hi, I just thought I would share this as I find it amazing how many people purely focusing on technicals rather than finding out what sentiment is driving the market. The reason why retail traders lose money is because they are not sailing their trades in the same direction as the big institutions. The big institutions only use technicals for point of entry or to close a trade. They would never use technical indicators to run a trade as they are trading billions on behalf of their clients. I use a professional news feed called Ransquawk which lets...
I agree that the institutions are using fundamental analysis. But the commitment of traders and an ema is all you need to guage sentiment. There are no transactions that move price that can hide from a price chart.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #37
  • Mar 25, 2018 4:25am Mar 25, 2018 4:25am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Thanks. It' not a case of trying to persuade but trying to make them realise they are not trading the way the big boys are. Seeing people dissapeart of forex factory or comment on posts knowing they are losing money is shocking to me. People need to realise buying or shorting based on an indicator is not the way to trade.
Big boys trade in a way as they do because whom they are...big boys. They won't try to scalp for 5 pips with 3000 lot, not because they don't want to, but because they can't.
They trade fundamentals because they have lot better info on it than a retail trader has. That is one of the perks their money will buy.
Before you ever hear something, you can bet your ass most will have that info long before, or least a notion of it.

Conclusion:
As a retail trader you will never have same access to fundamental news.
When you are a retail trader, trade with your advantages in your side. Like the ability to be in and out, or indifferent to slippage on your small lots vs 1000s of lots to move.
Know what you are, know what you are not. Don't pretend to be something else.
Use that knowledge!

PS.
posting a trade example from last year does seem to look a bit outdated, and feels cherry picked.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #38
  • Mar 25, 2018 4:25am Mar 25, 2018 4:25am
Quoting copi88
Lets apply some logical thinking to this. We all accept the it's the institutions (Banks, market markers, Central Banks) who move and drive price. We all accept that Institutions will only buy something that they view is cheap or sell something that they view is expensive. ie They will only buy at a discount and sell at a premium. Now we must ask ourselves on what basis do they perceive value. If we say its technicals then we are saying that its technical indicators that indicate value. If that is the case then the following conversations are happening...
It's alot harder to get burnt when you are trading in the same direction as the major players. For example just before Fomc the big boys were buying dollar to position themselves as they expected 4 hikes. If we had used the same fundamentals not long after it would have been harder for us to get burnt.
  • #39
  • Mar 25, 2018 4:27am Mar 25, 2018 4:27am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I agree that the institutions are using fundamental analysis. But the commitment of traders and an ema is all you need to guage sentiment. There are no transactions that move price that can hide from a price chart.
There are traders who know how to use technicals to put them in line with the fundamentals which is an art itself. I heard there are 4 major hedge funds that are technical based only but this is some serious tech they are using.
  • #40
  • Mar 25, 2018 4:31am Mar 25, 2018 4:31am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} Big boys trade in a way as they do because whom they are...big boys. They won't try to scalp for 5 pips with 3000 lot, not because they don't want to, but because they can't. They trade fundamentals because they have lot better info on it than a retail trader has. That is one of the perks their money will buy. Before you ever hear something, you can bet your ass most will have that info long before, or least a notion of it. Conclusion: As a retail trader you will never have same access to fundamental news. When you are a retail trader, trade...
Nope you are incorrect I have to say.

Ransquawk gets the news the same time as they have Bloomberg terminal, reuters and every major news feed. They have guys who they pay to stare at Twitter all day.

As soon as the news comes they squawk it and us retail guys can weigh up whether to dive in depending on how impactful the news is.

Loads of major prop firms use ransquawk. Perfect example amplified trading make loads of money using ransquawk. You can watch the BBC documentary on them where the guy Pearce makes like 4k in seconds trading the ecb press conference.
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