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Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

  • #41
  • Mar 25, 2018 4:32am Mar 25, 2018 4:32am
Quoting abokwaik
Fundamental Analysis ==> Direction Technical Analysis ==> Entry/Exit Levels

100% Agreed
  • #42
  • Mar 25, 2018 4:36am Mar 25, 2018 4:36am
To be fair, there might be some logic and support for technical analysis.
Examples would be certain technical analysis such as 50, 200 daily SMA crossovers, major support and resistance levels, 52-week high/lows.

These technical analysis could possibly work on the basis of self fufiling prophecy. Since they have been used from the early years of trading, there is a possibility that people still take them into consideration currently. This is kind of like the lindy effect.

That being said, the kind of TA the "big boys" use are not as complex and ridiculous as some technical rule based strategies I've seen on this forum. And the role they play in a trading decision is still rather small relative to the fundamental logic behind the trade. I would call them "traditional TA" for lack of a better word.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #43
  • Mar 25, 2018 4:43am Mar 25, 2018 4:43am
www.dailymotion.com/video/x4mruk6


very good documentary which tells you about trading and shows big boys using ransquawk and Bloomberg to make loads. Ransquak is only like Ģ70 a month right now and you can make thousands with it.
  • #44
  • Mar 25, 2018 5:08am Mar 25, 2018 5:08am
The real reason of pair moving in the Market is News but majority of traders are scalpers and trading according to short T/Fs unlike they say we consider Higher T/Fs .
This is the real reason for losing in the Forex Market
Another important issues regarding these years of my trading, i have found out, the style and form of trading which most of traders are using not logical because traders are using Indicators for predicting the real Trend.
First traders must follow of real procedures to find out the acceptable pair direction then using any indicator even a very simple one to confirm their analysis so we can not say Foundemantal is important or Technical beyond them is another thing which is very very critical and important without knowing it , one day you get profit 2 days get lost
  • #45
  • Mar 25, 2018 6:19am Mar 25, 2018 6:19am
Equating news to sole cause of market movement can be misleading. A piece of data is only important to the market to the extent of the market's perception of the data.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #46
  • Mar 25, 2018 6:28am Mar 25, 2018 6:28am
In other words, market perception of the News is key.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
Equating news to sole cause of market movement can be misleading. A piece of data is only important to the market to the extent of the market's perception of the data. KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #47
  • Edited 7:58am Mar 25, 2018 7:05am | Edited 7:58am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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My view is the price starts move technically fisrt which will be approved by fundamentals soon after that!
Markets are always ahead from fundamentals. If it wouldn't be so, everyone had been billionaire in this world right now!
Imagine I wait for news or other fundamental result to trade, then act upon that.
These sources are handled by people who already know what can happen once they share that information.
Moreover markets can react to circumstances based on Supply/Demand when there is no any fundamental exists.
THIS PICTURE shows markets start movement when less FUNDAMENTALISTS wait for that. They join after that trend is created!
Think like an investor, Act as a speculator. Ferid H.
  • #48
  • Mar 25, 2018 7:17am Mar 25, 2018 7:17am
"Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%"

For a scalper fundamental analysis are useless, the exception is trading news.
POW!
  • #49
  • Mar 25, 2018 7:20am Mar 25, 2018 7:20am
Quoting Feliks
{image} My view is the price starts move technically fisrt which will be approved by fundamentals soon after that! Markets are always ahead from fundamentals. If it wouldn't be so, everyone had been billionaire in this world right now! Imagine I wait for news or other fundamental result to trade, then act upon that. These sources are handled by people who already know what can happen once they share that information. Moreover markets can react to circumstances based on bid/offer when there is no any fundamental exists. THIS PICTURE shows markets...
I dont mean to be rude, but where did the notion that price moves are led by technicals first and then justified by fundamentals? That sounds rather impossible to happen no?
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #50
  • Mar 25, 2018 7:32am Mar 25, 2018 7:32am
Quoting synicz
{quote} I dont mean to be rude, but where did the notion that price moves are led by technicals first and then justified by fundamentals? That sounds rather impossible to happen no?
That's the trick! When I say technicals, I don't mean any "rosy" indicators. Besides I mean the nature of the market: Trend, Support, Resistance, Averages (Years), Low/High prices. For me in most cases fundamentals are just accelerators rather than catalyzators.
Think like an investor, Act as a speculator. Ferid H.
  • #51
  • Edited Mar 26, 2018 3:01am Mar 25, 2018 7:41am | Edited Mar 26, 2018 3:01am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Nope you are incorrect I have to say. Ransquawk gets the news the same time as they have Bloomberg terminal, reuters and every major news feed. They have guys who they pay to stare at Twitter all day. As soon as the news comes they squawk it and us retail guys can weigh up whether to dive in depending on how impactful the news is. Loads of major prop firms use ransquawk. Perfect example amplified trading make loads of money using ransquawk. You can watch the BBC documentary on them where the guy Pearce makes like 4k in seconds trading the...
Am I wrong or are you naive?

So, where does Blomberg and the rest gets the news?
Do you think the employment number counting end is the same moment it is published, or the numbers are prepared a "bit" ahead?
How does GDP or CPI worked out?

Fell free to disagree but money buys information, connections. And information isn't equal to all, just like nothing else is equal in the world, contrary to what you made believe.

As for your Pearce example...you keep mixing retail with big money.
Big money isn't scalping the news for 4k.

But hey, you live in your world with you beliefs and me in my world with mine.
I am fine with that.
Some believe in tooth fairies and leprechauns, I am fine with that too.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #52
  • Mar 25, 2018 7:44am Mar 25, 2018 7:44am
Quoting fxprimate
"Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%" For a scalper fundamental analysis are useless, the exception is trading news.
Honestly, even for trading news it doesn't matter.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #53
  • Edited 8:15am Mar 25, 2018 7:51am | Edited 8:15am
Quoting synicz
{quote} I dont mean to be rude, but where did the notion that price moves are led by technicals first and then justified by fundamentals? That sounds rather impossible to happen no?
Maybe I'm reading this wrong but there are many examples of price cracking and showing weakness well before bad news. And the opposite where a rebound starts to happen before real news starts to find its way to the news outlets.

And I'm referencing longer term trading and not short term trading. (day trading) So we might be talking apples and oranges
Model 3 All Time Pips: -887
  • #54
  • Mar 25, 2018 8:05am Mar 25, 2018 8:05am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} Honestly, even for trading news it doesn't matter.
I Agree.
While the fundamentals are useless the news are used by some scalpers to trade, although as you have said, no needed.
Thatīs the exception.
POW!
  • #55
  • Edited 10:04am Mar 25, 2018 8:07am | Edited 10:04am
RANsquawk: nice, fast, cheap, it even cures diseases...
  • #56
  • Mar 25, 2018 8:36am Mar 25, 2018 8:36am
Quoting Feliks
{quote} That's the trick! When I say technicals, I don't mean any "rosy" indicators. Besides I mean the nature of the market: Trend, Support, Resistance, Averages (Years), Low/High prices. For me in most cases fundamentals are just accelerators rather than catalyzators.
Ahhh I see.
I think what you may be referencing to is price momentum. But do correct me if im wrong!
In that case I do agree that sometimes price drift a certain direction before an important news release, and the movements accelerates at the release of the news.

Quoting RedWingFan
{quote} Maybe I'm reading this wrong but there are many examples of price cracking and showing weakness well before bad news. And the opposite where a rebound starts to happen before real news starts to find its way to the news outlets. And I'm referencing longer term trading and not short term trading. (day trading) So we might be talking apples and oranges
I kind of didn't understand the rebound part.
But regarding the first point. My intuition is that it could be market participants are pricing in the bad news because they expect it. And prices fall further after the news release because the news figures confirms the bad news.


As for the other users throwing phrases such as "fundies are useless bleh". I just gotta say that doesn't mean that if something doesn't works for you, that means it is useless.

I sincerely hope that this thread won't turn out into another one of those typical technical vs fundamental arguement scenes. Where people start throwing insults at each other because of differences in their views.
It is okay to have different views, it is okay to discuss and debate those differences. But there is no need to start getting aggressive or hurling insults.

At the end of the day, the discussions and debates are meant to generate constructive ideas, lets keep it that way please. This is not a ego pissing contest. No need to compare TEs or whatever. A profitable strategy today may be an unprofitable strategy tomorrow. Markets change. So let us put fourth our arguements in a civil manner please.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #57
  • Mar 25, 2018 9:24am Mar 25, 2018 9:24am
Quoting synicz
Samson. I like the message of your post. And i definitely agee that understanding fundamentals is definitely crucial to trading. No offense however, you are fighting a near impossible battle trying to convince the general retail community to adopt fundamentals into their trading. It is akin to debunking religion! (No religious offense meant here) Many before you have tried, preaching the importance of fundamentals. Guess what? They all recieved mostly negative backlash, hostile remarks, and comments with claims that fundamentals are useless etc....
Pls I'm interested, very serious.
Trade to trade well
  • #58
  • Mar 25, 2018 9:40am Mar 25, 2018 9:40am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Thanks and very good post. In relation to deviaion of numbers a good example was the cad cpi on Friday. Now the y/y cpi was over 2% which means the boc will be forced to hike but with nafta lurking it makes things tricky but I think we may get a hike next release. In relation to speed you don' have to be super fast you just have to be able to assess within 10 minutes how impactdul the news is. For example when Theresa May called a snap election the pound rallied for quite a while. Another is example is if the junior brexit minister says...
How do you know the market was pricing in for 4 hikes this year?
It's only obvious on hind sight because market sold off.
  • #59
  • Mar 25, 2018 9:49am Mar 25, 2018 9:49am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} There are traders who know how to use technicals to put them in line with the fundamentals which is an art itself. I heard there are 4 major hedge funds that are technical based only but this is some serious tech they are using.
It is not really an art. Like I suggested, use the COT and an EMA that makes sense. The EMA is the median line between bulls and bears. Above it you are paying a premium, below it, you are paying a discount. Price will revert to a mean usually in an attempt to find value. Retailers over think a lot of stuff. The institutions are run by humans, just like us.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #60
  • Mar 25, 2018 9:50am Mar 25, 2018 9:50am
Quoting Feliks
{image} My view is the price starts move technically fisrt which will be approved by fundamentals soon after that! Markets are always ahead from fundamentals. If it wouldn't be so, everyone had been billionaire in this world right now! Imagine I wait for news or other fundamental result to trade, then act upon that. These sources are handled by people who already know what can happen once they share that information. Moreover markets can react to circumstances based on Supply/Demand when there is no any fundamental exists. THIS PICTURE shows markets...
So a professional trader buys something based on the technicals and not based on the reason for the demand? They put billion dollar trades on the market based on a ema crossover or stochastic? Hmm....

When a weather reporter predicts the weather they talk about the forecast and they use fundamentals to why the weather will be like this tomorow and why it is like this now.

Pro Traders barely look at charts as the main focus is the fundamentals and price action.
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