NFP today. Here's a 2 hourly chart showing what I think might take place at some point today.
Yesterday, the 100sma held the price to the upside, and we may find Dax finding support on it today, especially as it falls right on top of today's S1 pivot.
If it does break to the upside around the London open, then the 76.4% is just above as you can see, and I have other MA Resistance just below it at around 12,390. The H3 200ema is just above the 76.4% fib @ 12,428, which is also today's R1, so lots of resistance above where we are now.
Good luck!
ps - I forgot to put the trend line in, which runs straight through the potential 100sma support I've shown, so another reason why this should be strong support if the price gets there.
To add to the above post now that we've seen the initial move today.
NFP later can move the price anywhere, and Dax, having found support, is now poised to go either way.
So I'm now concentrating on the Dow which can help with the direction later, and NFP aside, I am bullish on it on the Daily, H4 and H1 time frames. As I siad, NFP can move the price anywhere regardless of the technicals, but you will find that actually, it usually remains true to the technicals once the initial move has been made, so an adverse move against them after NFP, will usually correct and go with them, so be prepared for that if you are trading Dax or Dow today.
If I'm right, and the price does go north, then it looks like it could be a 300 pip move or so today from the current price as I type, so 25,200 or so on the Dow. Dax is more difficult to gauge, but it will certainly follow the Dow whichever way that goes.
If Dow dips back after NFP, and holds support, then I'll be putting the fibs on from the March 7th low, as either the 50% or the 61.8% could hold it, perhaps even the 76.4%.
Lower than the March 7th low? Going on the technicals I'd say no, even if it is a very bad NFP number. We shall know soon enough.
25,200, okay 25,196 reached on the Dow, so that panned out exactly as I predicted it might. Dax as I said above was more uncertain, but the 76.4% fib resistance level I highlighted in my first post today was reached, and it held, so all in all, both Dax and Dow pretty much played ball today, though the Dax didn't fall quite as low this morning as I felt it might, finding its support as it did on the 30m 100sma.
