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  • #5,921
  • Mar 2, 2018 4:14am Mar 2, 2018 4:14am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} First off, you should be staying well away from GU. There's red news all day today, news that could potentially blow your socks off. That's why Cable is sitting in a phoney narrow range doing not-very-much-of-anything. Also, I'd suggest using bars, not candles, as it's far easier to see what's going on. If TS is paying attention, he will also smack you about the head for not using the attached indi/template. Just a heads-up.
With all the due respect you deserve, Lem, I prefer candles - much easier to see what is up or down I my humble opinion. No doubt it is due to what you are used to too.
  • #5,922
  • Mar 2, 2018 4:52am Mar 2, 2018 4:52am
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} With all the due respect you deserve, Lem, I prefer candles - much easier to see what is up or down I my humble opinion. No doubt it is due to what you are used to too.
Kl kl. Interesting that you feel it's easier to see what's what with a candle rather than a bar but each to their own. It's all good
  • #5,923
  • Mar 2, 2018 5:31am Mar 2, 2018 5:31am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} First off, you should be staying well away from GU. There's red news all day today, news that could potentially blow your socks off. That's why Cable is sitting in a phoney narrow range doing not-very-much-of-anything. Also, I'd suggest using bars, not candles, as it's far easier to see what's going on. If TS is paying attention, he will also smack you about the head for not using the attached indi/template. Just a heads-up.
Attached Image

It may feel something like this....
  • #5,924
  • Mar 2, 2018 5:41am Mar 2, 2018 5:41am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} First off, you should be staying well away from GU. There's red news all day today, news that could potentially blow your socks off. That's why Cable is sitting in a phoney narrow range doing not-very-much-of-anything. Also, I'd suggest using bars, not candles, as it's far easier to see what's going on. If TS is paying attention, he will also smack you about the head for not using the attached indi/template. Just a heads-up.
Good tip Lem. As far as the candles go, I'm with ikdenk.

Time for me to go to bed anyway. Good trading during NY for all.
  • #5,925
  • Mar 2, 2018 9:50am Mar 2, 2018 9:50am
i am using colored candles, colored bars AND grey bars.
for me the changing-view is the clue.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #5,926
  • Mar 3, 2018 8:28am Mar 3, 2018 8:28am
Quoting TooSlow
{image} When price is above an open, it is up. Conversely, when price is below an open, it is down. It is a good idea not to short when price is up and not to buy when price is down. Naturally, most traders look for reversals but are impatient and trigger happy thus buying when they should be selling and vice-versa. A sell below the H1 open of the bar immediately following the bar making the highest high would have resulted in profit. In summary, a bar makes a high and closes. Next bar fails to make a higher high and reverses. Sell when price drops...
Pls can you share this indicator?
  • #5,927
  • Mar 3, 2018 11:03am Mar 3, 2018 11:03am
Quoting dexterous
{quote} Pls can you share this indicator?
Just edit the indicator attached to the paperclip section.
  • #5,928
  • Mar 3, 2018 12:02pm Mar 3, 2018 12:02pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Just edit the indicator attached to the paperclip section.
Pls where is the indicator attached here or is it a template and how do I edit it. Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2018-03-03-18-10-20.png Size: 222 KB
  • #5,929
  • Mar 3, 2018 5:21pm Mar 3, 2018 5:21pm
Quoting dexterous
{quote} Pls where is the indicator attached here or is it a template and how do I edit it. Thanks {image}
Try post 1023
  • #5,930
  • Mar 3, 2018 7:04pm Mar 3, 2018 7:04pm
Quoting dexterous
{quote} Pls where is the indicator attached here or is it a template and how do I edit it. Thanks {image}
Go to the HOLO thread.
Download smHiLoOpen Lines_v1.2

Come back to 1-2-3 and go to Post #1023 and download / apply that template as an option to use.

You can either edit in the template indicators or set your own bar / candle and background look if you wish, then apply the separate indicator. Edit that indicator on its own.

Go to your mt4
>Charts
>Indicators List
>smHiLoOpen Lines_v1.2

Get rid of all the lines you don't need / want and edit colours to suit.
>OK

Save Template
  • #5,931
  • Mar 4, 2018 9:34am Mar 4, 2018 9:34am
The candle that makes the current high,do you sell on that candles open, or the current candles open? sorry for the confusion ! :]
  • #5,932
  • Mar 4, 2018 11:51am Mar 4, 2018 11:51am
Quoting nozzer
The candle that makes the current high,do you sell on that candles open, or the current candles open? sorry for the confusion ! :]
You sell on the open of the 2nd bar (close of the bar that makes the new high).
  • #5,933
  • Mar 4, 2018 3:09pm Mar 4, 2018 3:09pm
Quoting nozzer
The candle that makes the current high,do you sell on that candles open, or the current candles open? sorry for the confusion ! :]
Hi nozzer. Hope this helps.
Candle A makes a new HIGH.
Candle B fails to make a new HIGH.
Once that is identified and price pulls back.....SELL at the OPEN price of candle B. (which is normally the close price of candle A)
Cheers

Attached Image
  • #5,934
  • Mar 4, 2018 6:11pm Mar 4, 2018 6:11pm
Quoting MichaelG
{quote} Hi nozzer. Hope this helps. Candle A makes a new HIGH. Candle B fails to make a new HIGH. Once that is identified and price pulls back.....SELL at the OPEN price of candle B. (which is normally the close price of candle A) Cheers {image}
Michael,

great explanation and picture (candles!). You must have been a teacher in a previous life.

Lem,

sorry about the poke above.

Would you like to reiterate the research that Pippy and you have done on the shape of the signal candles/bars and the consequent profit or loss?
  • #5,935
  • Mar 4, 2018 7:56pm Mar 4, 2018 7:56pm
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} Michael, great explanation and picture (candles!). You must have been a teacher in a previous life. Lem, sorry about the poke above. Would you like to reiterate the research that Pippy and you have done on the shape of the signal candles/bars and the consequent profit or loss?
Pippy and I looked at the shape of the bars to see if there was any difference in how a trade went depending on how high priced travelled after the open and where the subsequent close occurred.

I named the shapes as long-bladed or short-bladed knives.

Long-bladed meant that after the open, price reached a long way before dropping all the way back.

Short-bladed meant that after the open, price did not travel very far before dropping back.

This is simplistic and there are obviously occasions where price opens, then travels a long way before closing near the tip of the blade also. We treated that as a separate entity and I'll come back to that.

Anyway, although one would think that a large price push and a long fall back (a long blade) would lean more toward a successful reverse on the subsequent bar, we found that this was not the case.

Similarly, the converse was true. There was no significant correlation between one shape of bar and success or failure.

As a result, we concluded that you simply play them as they fall with equal chance of success.

The one bar shape that did strike caution was the open, followed by long blade, followed by high close. Going on price action standards, this would seem to suggest that price has maintained some level of momentum and has given a close at the top, therefore the likelihood is that you would be wise to stay out as you could be in a push into a new breakout. However, once again, the actual conclusion was that this did not hold true. We found that price was just as likely to drop back as at any other time.

Of course, you could add other filters on top of this and that could perhaps give a greater idea of the strength of the move. However for the purposes of this study, we did not use any additional info.

So, overall, we found that the shape of the bars had no significant impact on the resulting trade's success or failure.

As a post-script to that however, this did lead to the set-up known as a HAL-Special, a non-standard entry where you get in on the trade on the set-up bar as price drops back over its own open level while the bar is still forming.

This isn't part of the 1-2-3 method as such and time will yet tell as to the long-term success rate but this does seem to have at least a slight edge.
  • #5,936
  • Mar 4, 2018 8:23pm Mar 4, 2018 8:23pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Pippy and I looked at the shape of the bars to see if there was any difference in how a trade went depending on how high priced travelled after the open and where the subsequent close occurred. I named the shapes as long-bladed or short-bladed knives. Long-bladed meant that after the open, price reached a long way before dropping all the way back. Short-bladed meant that after the open, price did not travel very far before dropping back. This is simplistic and there are obviously occasions where price opens, then travels a long way before...
Thanks for the great summary, much appreciated.

This will be useful for quite a few members here.

It is interesting that the shape of the bar has no predictive value, I therefore rely mainly on volatility at the top of the hour and use a fixed TP of 5 pips.

I have been thinking of using the 5 min chart just before and after the top of the hour to obtain some additional information - seems useful sometimes (more like the HOLO approach then).

I have also reduced the pairs I trade to 8 only: EU, EJ, GU, GJ, AU, AJ, NU and UJ. These are more active in the Asian session, which sets the scene for me for the rest of the day. UC is sometimes active in the NY afternoon session, but too unpredictable. EG also unreliable, as is UF because of Swiss central bank interference.
  • #5,937
  • Mar 5, 2018 1:42am Mar 5, 2018 1:42am
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} Thanks for the great summary, much appreciated. This will be useful for quite a few members here. It is interesting that the shape of the bar has no predictive value, I therefore rely mainly on volatility at the top of the hour and use a fixed TP of 5 pips. I have been thinking of using the 5 min chart just before and after the top of the hour to obtain some additional information - seems useful sometimes (more like the HOLO approach then). I have also reduced the pairs I trade to 8 only: EU, EJ,...
Pippy was in the process of collating 'top-of-the-hour' data before personal issues meant he had to step back from trading for a while. What you describe is pretty much on the head of the nail as to what he was doing.

As for your pairs, have you looked at CJ and GN? Spreads can be an issue but may fit your criteria.
  • #5,938
  • Mar 5, 2018 1:56am Mar 5, 2018 1:56am
Great picture you posted MichealG,thank you !
  • #5,939
  • Mar 5, 2018 2:52am Mar 5, 2018 2:52am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3518nz.png Size: 19 KB

NZ long +5 same bar
  • #5,940
  • Mar 5, 2018 3:57am Mar 5, 2018 3:57am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Pippy and I looked at the shape of the bars to see if there was any difference in how a trade went depending on how high priced travelled after the open and where the subsequent close occurred. I named the shapes as long-bladed or short-bladed knives. Long-bladed meant that after the open, price reached a long way before dropping all the way back. Short-bladed meant that after the open, price did not travel very far before dropping back. This is simplistic and there are obviously occasions where price opens, then travels a long way before...
As a post-script to that however, this did lead to the set-up known as a HAL-Special, a non-standard entry where you get in on the trade on the set-up bar as price drops back over its own open level while the bar is still forming.

A little late into this discussion and have not read it in depth, nor have the time right now. I have found generally that there is no sign in the movement of a bar that will predict success of failure.

Some observations though, in what I see nearly every bar qualifies as it usually makes some movement albeit fractional of a pip toward the high or low before moving through the open. At one point I was researching and taking statistics on success rate and I believe it was around 67%.

Often I would take trades with success that moved almost immediately from the open to the target with very little movement to the failure mode (now I am confusing myself ). However lately I have been sticking more to significant movement toward the high or low before the turn back through the open. It is inconclusive thus far.

As far as what I call a same bar trade or (HAL-Special) as Lem calls it, example being that last trade I posted. I seem to have had a fairly high success rate on those but have not counted. Some do fail of course. And yes, edges tend to be very slight, because that's what makes trading, trading.
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