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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #73,601
  • Feb 22, 2018 10:13am Feb 22, 2018 10:13am
Quoting nealpek
{quote} What maps?
The pip road map. Ive traded off an of for more than 10 years, I struggled for a long time tried everything i could find, and found that nothing suited me. after being on the wrong side of things every time, I decided to trade in the opposite direction, try to loose. started working out. so that led me to believe that theses markets are engineered, then on old timer was ranting about a particular situation, so I asked him what he was talking about, he pointed out a particular pattern that later leads to another. so i took it a step further when I seen it again and started mapping it out, then it happend again so i traded it. disturbingly accurate. ran 10k demo accounts up to several 100k in months. then a few years ago i was watching a movie about central banks, the entire program was eluding to fx trading, when they finally came out with it, there was a banker standing over an employees terminal and he was saying that they were responsible for making sure that the markets are doing what they were suppose to. the host jumped right on that what are you talking about, he said " when I go in vacation I prefer to have a map of the local places and activities, a list only tells you whats available not where its at" then they showed a brief shot of the employees screen, I almost fell over it what what the old timer was ranting about all that time ago.
  • #73,602
  • Feb 22, 2018 10:18am Feb 22, 2018 10:18am
Quoting Seshwaan
{quote} I'm not scared and I agree that beleiving in fears will handicap your trading but just ignoring any possbility of a crash is exactly what people did in 2007 regarding the real estate bubble.. the fundamentals overwhelmingly look bearish for the dollar... This has been the worst start to the year for the S&P since 1987, that together with higher than expcted inflation, bond yeilds rising and the threat of rate hikes when the US has more debt than ever makes it very hard for me to justify any long positions... Just my humble opinion
Too much fundamental thinking, while trading is all about speculation and manipulation. Concentrate on price action rather and be rich.
When you're not sure Short or Long - toss a coin! Chances are 50% !!!
  • #73,603
  • Feb 22, 2018 10:21am Feb 22, 2018 10:21am
Quoting 4xjunkie
{quote} he pointed out a particular pattern that later leads to another. so i took it a step further when I seen it again and started mapping it out, then it happend again so i traded it.
Are you talking about harmonic patterns like the one you posted up earlier?
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #73,604
  • Feb 22, 2018 10:21am Feb 22, 2018 10:21am
Quoting nealpek
Suntrader, one more huge problem. The figures are stated as: "Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons. As you add each successive "plus" to the total in this case, Total Unemployment is reduced! Without these "pluses", the numbers would be higher! Not sure if my thought process is correct! lol
Without those "pluses" ..... it wouldn't be total unemployment.
  • #73,605
  • Feb 22, 2018 10:23am Feb 22, 2018 10:23am
Quoting unlv_tj
SunTrader and Nealpek, I agree with much of what you are saying. I don't have too much in stock long term anymore. Maybe 25% of my net worth. I am not yet 40, so that is why I keep some there. I think this thing has to cool off and give us some buying opportunities. I'm not exactly sure where, if the Dow gets down to 22,000 I will probably slowly start buying up some equities. I am wondering if they don't start to tank it closer to the US Mid term elections to sway the balance. Who knows, but it seems like a house of cards to me when you look at...
Try not think it terms of "they". That is an easy trap many fall into. It is you and your money. Only.
  • #73,606
  • Feb 22, 2018 10:27am Feb 22, 2018 10:27am
Quoting forexin101
{quote} Are you talking about harmonic patterns like the one you posted up earlier?
no the actual market pattern.
  • #73,607
  • Feb 22, 2018 10:28am Feb 22, 2018 10:28am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Without those "pluses" ..... it wouldn't be total unemployment.
Shouldn't total unemployment be only those not working? Why add part time workers, to a category of people not working?

That's like saying "Total Dead" is the dead plus those on life support and feeding tubes.
  • #73,608
  • Feb 22, 2018 10:32am Feb 22, 2018 10:32am
Quoting nealpek
4xjunkie, hope you find what you are looking for!
I will, its just a matter of patience, this one is the largest one ive seen. unless i find the overlap again, weekend work. once I do im sharing this time so i cant loose it. My wife thinks this a game and made me format the hard drive that it was on for her use (kids movies). good luck everyone got to go and punch that clock again.
  • #73,609
  • Feb 22, 2018 10:40am Feb 22, 2018 10:40am
Does anyone here trade longer term. I have a sell position USDJPY that I bought in Dec. for 113.058 and plan to hold till 103.000 unless I see a fundamental change. Thought I missed it a few days ago but it seems to be coming around nicely today.
  • #73,610
  • Feb 22, 2018 10:45am Feb 22, 2018 10:45am
Quoting Jr123
Does anyone here trade longer term. I have a sell position USDJPY that I bought in Dec. for 113.058 and plan to hold till 103.000 unless I see a fundamental change. Thought I missed it a few days ago but it seems to be coming around nicely today.
i think you should keep it open until year end since it is possible that it will go to 100
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #73,611
  • Feb 22, 2018 10:48am Feb 22, 2018 10:48am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} i think you should keep it open until year end since it is possible that it will go to 100

I agree
  • #73,612
  • Feb 22, 2018 10:51am Feb 22, 2018 10:51am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} i think you should keep it open until year end since it is possible that it will go to 100
Agreed but I think it will go back to 106 - 108 before going back down farther.
  • #73,613
  • Feb 22, 2018 11:06am Feb 22, 2018 11:06am
maybe we will see some recovery after lunch today

went down to 106.6 area but it found support
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #73,614
  • Feb 22, 2018 11:09am Feb 22, 2018 11:09am
I think we could see some moves now that Bostic is speaking
  • #73,615
  • Feb 22, 2018 11:14am Feb 22, 2018 11:14am
Quoting nealpek
{quote} Shouldn't total unemployment be only those not working? Why add part time workers, to a category of people not working? That's like saying "Total Dead" is the dead plus those on life support and feeding tubes.
The Fed has any number of employment/unemployment numbers.

U6 includes part timers/causal/seasonal/etc as a better gauge accounting for those who wish to be full time but aren't at the moment.

BTW all these reports, by the BLS actually, are done by household survey.
  • #73,616
  • Feb 22, 2018 11:15am Feb 22, 2018 11:15am
Quoting Jr123
Does anyone here trade longer term. I have a sell position USDJPY that I bought in Dec. for 113.058 and plan to hold till 103.000 unless I see a fundamental change. Thought I missed it a few days ago but it seems to be coming around nicely today.
You win or lose so its best you decide. Not a stranger.
  • #73,617
  • Feb 22, 2018 11:16am Feb 22, 2018 11:16am
Interesting stuff Sun! Me thinks it's time to delve into the household survey, if I can find any "meat" on it!!
  • #73,618
  • Feb 22, 2018 11:27am Feb 22, 2018 11:27am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} You win or lose so its best you decide. Not a stranger.
Sorry didn't mean to imply I was looking for advise. Just interested in trading styles.
  • #73,619
  • Feb 22, 2018 11:32am Feb 22, 2018 11:32am
Bostic, difference between urban and rural job growth, and how banks need to help the rural areas more.....Yawn!!
  • #73,620
  • Feb 22, 2018 12:20pm Feb 22, 2018 12:20pm
Quoting Jr123
Does anyone here trade longer term. I have a sell position USDJPY that I bought in Dec. for 113.058 and plan to hold till 103.000 unless I see a fundamental change. Thought I missed it a few days ago but it seems to be coming around nicely today.
I have a short position based on the COT data they I hope in keeping provided sellers and buyer remain consistent weekly
To Pipccess and Beyond
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