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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #73,581
  • Feb 22, 2018 8:02am Feb 22, 2018 8:02am
Quoting nealpek
Every trader sees something different. More than one perspective is ideal. This 4 hour line chart shows a perfect rejection of the first upswing on the lower tail. There are many ways to see the market!!! When the market stalled in this area, it gave me the confidence to load up my positions!! {image}
i only see a bloody tampon on the chart which tells me to sell
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #73,582
  • Feb 22, 2018 8:16am Feb 22, 2018 8:16am
I find it very hard to go long USD at the moment..... Everything is pointing to a crash in the US stock market this year and it could be very close by
  • #73,583
  • Feb 22, 2018 8:31am Feb 22, 2018 8:31am
Oh boy. Not good. Everyone in a sell mood now.
  • #73,584
  • Feb 22, 2018 8:32am Feb 22, 2018 8:32am
Quoting SunTrader
Oh boy. Not good. Everyone in a sell mood now.

Expecting some consolidation above RDL before it continues so just a waiting game
  • #73,585
  • Feb 22, 2018 8:35am Feb 22, 2018 8:35am
Quoting SunTrader
Oh boy. Not good. Everyone in a sell mood now.

I'm reversing all positions, lol !!!
  • #73,586
  • Feb 22, 2018 8:38am Feb 22, 2018 8:38am
Quoting Seshwaan
I find it very hard to go long USD at the moment..... Everything is pointing to a crash in the US stock market this year and it could be very close by
please stock market fluctuation is normal.There are no reasons for crash.After Tax bill pass less regulations and less corporate gain tax.Economy is doing well.
Don't scare yourself.Worst thing you can do is start believing in your fears and handicap your trading
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #73,587
  • Feb 22, 2018 8:46am Feb 22, 2018 8:46am
Quoting forexin101
{quote} Lol you are buying and I am selling, may the best man win
Good luck, Be careful what you wish for.
  • #73,588
  • Feb 22, 2018 8:52am Feb 22, 2018 8:52am
Quoting Davit
{quote} please stock market fluctuation is normal.There are no reasons for crash.After Tax bill pass less regulations and less corporate gain tax.Economy is doing well. Don't scare yourself.Worst thing you can do is start believing in your fears and handicap your trading

I'm not scared and I agree that beleiving in fears will handicap your trading but just ignoring any possbility of a crash is exactly what people did in 2007 regarding the real estate bubble.. the fundamentals overwhelmingly look bearish for the dollar...

This has been the worst start to the year for the S&P since 1987, that together with higher than expcted inflation, bond yeilds rising and the threat of rate hikes when the US has more debt than ever makes it very hard for me to justify any long positions...

Just my humble opinion
  • #73,589
  • Feb 22, 2018 8:59am Feb 22, 2018 8:59am
4xjunkie, Are you trading a live account?
  • #73,590
  • Feb 22, 2018 9:02am Feb 22, 2018 9:02am
Both were right up to a point! One was buying on pullback (or correction), the other selling into the market mode/current trend. Technically, price action on USDJPY is reacting to a significant support (bound by magenta horizontal lines) in the attached D1 chart. A sideways operation of price action or pullback is often expected until directional clarity is obtained or market disequilibrium is attained; perhaps spurred on by a fundamental factor.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_Tech_Update_22nd_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 43 KB


Quoting 4xjunkie
{quote} Good luck, Be careful what you wish for.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #73,591
  • Feb 22, 2018 9:08am Feb 22, 2018 9:08am
Bond yields climbing to high of 4 years ago!
  • #73,592
  • Feb 22, 2018 9:21am Feb 22, 2018 9:21am
Quoting Davit
{quote} please stock market fluctuation is normal.There are no reasons for crash.After Tax bill pass less regulations and less corporate gain tax.Economy is doing well. Don't scare yourself.Worst thing you can do is start believing in your fears and handicap your trading
Keep your eye on the 25,000 level on the Dow. Price has been hovering there for a while. I don't share your optimism about the economy. Besides the BS 4% unemployment figures they throw in your face, that is simply a "per month" figure. Real accumulated unemployment over time is probably in the 15-25% range, maybe higher. Personal debt as you know is at an all time high, and the long term debt cycle is peaking at it's crest. When personal debt levels peak, the market has to reset itself as the whole institution built around "lending and borrowing" is maxed out. Forget how the corps are doing in the global markets, the average U.S. citizen is in a lot of pain, and those teetering right on the line, start to go under water with each successive rate hike....The catalyst for a downturn doesn't necessarily have to slap you in the face to be valid.
  • #73,593
  • Feb 22, 2018 9:29am Feb 22, 2018 9:29am
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE
  • #73,594
  • Feb 22, 2018 9:36am Feb 22, 2018 9:36am
Quoting nealpek
4xjunkie, Are you trading a live account?
I use to, blew it up years ago, just getting back into trading, im not going to go live until i have my maps again. thats why im off and on target, all form memory.
  • #73,595
  • Feb 22, 2018 9:39am Feb 22, 2018 9:39am
Suntrader, thanks for the report. I still suspect the number is considerably higher as this little caveat caught my attention:

"The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)'"

My understanding of statistics says sample size, and the area(s) or zones you choose to generate your data from can significantly skew the data!
I would like to be able to know the parameters they used to get a better handle on the true number nationally.
  • #73,596
  • Feb 22, 2018 9:42am Feb 22, 2018 9:42am
Quoting 4xjunkie
{quote} I use to, blew it up years ago, just getting back into trading, im not going to go live until i have my maps again. thats why im off and on target, all form memory.
What maps?
  • #73,597
  • Feb 22, 2018 9:53am Feb 22, 2018 9:53am
Quoting nealpek
Suntrader, thanks for the report. I still suspect the number is considerably higher as this little caveat caught my attention: "The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)'" ...
While I am no fan of the Fed and think it should be abolished - they are the world's number one employer of Economists who can't correctly forecast the economy, repeatedly getting it wrong - but data is data. Notice after the "Great Recession" it hit all time high of 17.1
At any particular time the number might be higher somewhat but I wouldn't think much higher. Keep in mind there also is the underground economy which is hard to measure and those people are not included at all.
  • #73,598
  • Feb 22, 2018 9:54am Feb 22, 2018 9:54am
Quoting 4xjunkie
{quote} Good luck, Be careful what you wish for.
What, the best man winning? You can be the best man too, just switch your bias
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #73,599
  • Feb 22, 2018 9:56am Feb 22, 2018 9:56am
While I am no fan of the Fed and think it should be abolished - they are the world's number one employer of Economists who can't correctly forecast the economy, repeatedly getting it wrong - but data is data. Notice after the "Great Recession" it hit all time high of 17.1
At any particular time the number might be higher somewhat but I wouldn't think much higher. Keep in mind there also is the underground economy which is hard to measure and those people are not included at all.

Suntrader, one more huge problem. The figures are stated as:

"Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons.

As you add each successive "plus" to the total in this case, Total Unemployment is reduced! Without these "pluses", the numbers would be higher!

Not sure if my thought process is correct! lol
  • #73,600
  • Feb 22, 2018 10:10am Feb 22, 2018 10:10am
SunTrader and Nealpek, I agree with much of what you are saying. I don't have too much in stock long term anymore. Maybe 25% of my net worth. I am not yet 40, so that is why I keep some there. I think this thing has to cool off and give us some buying opportunities. I'm not exactly sure where, if the Dow gets down to 22,000 I will probably slowly start buying up some equities.

I am wondering if they don't start to tank it closer to the US Mid term elections to sway the balance. Who knows, but it seems like a house of cards to me when you look at the fundamentals.
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