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Attachments: Locked-in Range Analysis (LRA)
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Locked-in Range Analysis (LRA)

  • #101
  • Jan 17, 2018 1:31am Jan 17, 2018 1:31am
Quoting pooh123
{quote} If you invented the closest thing to the holy graill will you make it available to the public at a fee of $25 per month ?
You confuse the things. LRA method is free and is the cause-effect one among all types of analysis.

Do you know Trading Central? They make analysis based on simple technical analysis. Their cost starts from $1500 for individuals and $5000 per month for legal entities.

I suggest you go to the thread of technical analysis and tell everyone that technical analysis does not work because those who make the daily technical analysis do it on a fee basis!
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #103
  • Edited 3:58am Jan 18, 2018 1:39am | Edited 3:58am
How LRA explains to us an Impact of Fundamental Factors on Price

Fundamental factors influence the price by the fact that new positions are opened on their basis, based on which “news” movements occur.

Classification of fundamental factors in terms of their expectations:

1. Planned and expected factors are news on economic (macroeconomic indicators) or less often of political nature.
During the release of news with known release dates and times, the market maker has a “justified” opportunity for sharp price changes for distribution of the current and/or previously accumulated imbalance, as these movements will not attract the attention of the CFTC.

2. Random and unexpected factors are political phenomena and events (wars, terrorist attacks) and events of natural origin (cataclysms, natural disasters).
With a long factor life cycle (from several weeks to several years), the market maker can change the ratio of limit orders to maintain liquidity so as not to incur financial losses.

Example: Hostilities have begun in the country ‘X’, and market participants are actively selling national currency futures. It is also not profitable for the market maker to own (after expiration) this currency at the current price, therefore, he will continue to accumulate Buy orders in full, but to accumulate less Sell orders volume than (or equal to) his available accumulated Buy orders.
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #104
  • Jan 18, 2018 2:42am Jan 18, 2018 2:42am
hi t8936

interesting concept.
seldom surf this part of forexfactory for good thread.

subscribed, would love to hear more of your concept
  • #105
  • Jan 18, 2018 6:42am Jan 18, 2018 6:42am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: quote.png Size: 24 KB
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #106
  • Jan 18, 2018 9:05am Jan 18, 2018 9:05am
Quoting t8936
How LRA explains to us an Impact of Fundamental Factors on Price Fundamental factors influence the price by the fact that new positions are opened on their basis, based on which “news” movements occur. Classification of fundamental factors in terms of their expectations: 1. Planned and expected factors are news on economic (macroeconomic indicators) or less often of political nature. During the release of news with known release dates and times, the market maker has a “justified” opportunity for sharp price changes for distribution of the current...
Thanks. I trade planned events too so now this is getting interesting....

"he will continue to accumulate Buy orders in full, but to accumulate less Sell orders volume than (or equal to) his available accumulated Buy orders."

In a one side market where everyone is selling, MM is forced to buy. I get that but want to understand for how long MM can keep buying? How do they manage risk exposure not to bankcrupt themselves. Is there a coordinated effort across MM to arrange some selling to offset risk and entice buyers to come into the market. Why and how do instances spikes offer outside of the order flow via stop hunts, liquidity crunch reasons.

And more importantly, would you agree that one cannot trade fundamental events just by looking at one chart on one instrument. Example: If you trade Oil, you have to look at USD strength coorelations to minimize the effects of price manipulation by MMs. Same in spot, if AUD news is coming out, you have to analyse both USD strength, AUD strength and the force of movements across ALL AUD pairs and crosses to ensure the move is truly driven by fundamentals and market sentiment.

Again, I only want to personally focus on Market Makers and not market participants or traders or price setups or ranges or breakouts or bounces...none of that. Pure exposure management techniques used by MM. If this is understand, a similar strategy could be employed which will test the length of time in future. Just my POV.
Staying in my lane...
  • #107
  • Edited 10:46am Jan 18, 2018 10:25am | Edited 10:46am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I get that but want to understand for how long MM can keep buying? How do they manage risk exposure not to bankcrupt themselves.
I think you should learn LRA method to continue talk here because all your questions are answered by LRA. The book is short and you can read it for 1-2 Hours.

Answering your question above LRA means marker makers accumulate all positions in the futures market. All! No limits.
That is why we can analyze the market such cause-effect methods like LRA.
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #108
  • Jan 20, 2018 5:39am Jan 20, 2018 5:39am
Influence of trading session on the price formation of CME Group futures:

Attached Image


The price varies between the locked open buy and sell positions, where the volume and direction of open positions are crucial. As a rule, the main source of new open positions during the trading day are trading sessions descending from high to low traded volume. Significant price movements (going beyond the TPSL levels) at sessions with low influence on the formation of prices occur based on or taking into account and not contradicting the prevailing open positions during sessions with higher influence.
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #109
  • Jan 21, 2018 7:53am Jan 21, 2018 7:53am
Trading Session

Trading session means the most active (due to the time difference, or time zone) trading time in a particular region of the world. This is the period when macroeconomic indicators are released and dignitaries of the countries make official statements.

Attached Image


Focusing on price behavior during a session with low influence and correctly estimating the imbalance of the locked-in range, you can join the the most profitable price movement scenario for the market maker.

E-mini S&P 500 March 2017 Futures – hour distribution of daily volume. Period: February 2017 Time Zone: GMT

Attached Image
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #110
  • Jan 22, 2018 10:59pm Jan 22, 2018 10:59pm
Euro FX March 2017 Futures – hour distribution of daily volume. Period: February 2017 Time Zone: GMT

Attached Image


So the most effective time to analyze and open your positions is the Asian-Pacific Session (22:00-09:00 GMT).
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #111
  • Edited Jan 24, 2018 12:38am Jan 23, 2018 12:57am | Edited Jan 24, 2018 12:38am
Example of LRA trades:

New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) Futures

Reason for opening Buy positions:
An approximation of price to the support Locked-in Range

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6N2.png Size: 23 KB
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #112
  • Jan 23, 2018 1:20am Jan 23, 2018 1:20am
Quoting t8936
New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) Futures An approximation of price to the support Locked-in Range {image}
trader has to know why to enter where you pointing "buy" based on LRA.
NO MATTER THE SITUATION,NEVER LET YOUR EMOTIONS OVERPOWER YOUR INTELLIGENCE
  • #113
  • Jan 23, 2018 6:01am Jan 23, 2018 6:01am
Quoting Trader-Waldo
{quote} trader has to know why to enter where you pointing "buy" based on LRA.
Support LR is the locked-in range in which the volume of open sell positions prevails, and it is profitable for the market maker to quote prices above the range.

Support LR highlighted in red
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #114
  • Edited 12:38am Jan 24, 2018 12:15am | Edited 12:38am
Example of LRA trades:

Crude Oil Futures

Reason for opening Buy positions:
An approximation of price to the support Locked-in Range

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CL1.png Size: 25 KB
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #115
  • Edited 11:43pm Jan 25, 2018 12:20am | Edited 11:43pm
Example of LRA trades:

Natural Gas Futures

Reason for opening Buy positions:
An approximation of price to the support Locked-in Range

Reason for opening Sell positions:
An approximation of price to the resistance Locked-in Range

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NG.png Size: 28 KB
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #116
  • Jan 25, 2018 11:53pm Jan 25, 2018 11:53pm
Example of LRA trades:

Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) Futures

Reason for opening Buy positions:
An approximation of price to the support Locked-in Range

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6C.png Size: 28 KB
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #117
  • Jan 26, 2018 12:01am Jan 26, 2018 12:01am
Quoting t8936
Example of LRA trades: Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD) Futures Reason for opening Buy positions: An approximation of price to the support Locked-in Range {image}
Post trade analysis does not cut anymore cos traders now are better informed and not easily taken in by 20/20 after the fact analysis. Got to come out with something at least like live trade calls to prove what you really are or not.

Hehe
GS
  • #118
  • Edited 11:01am Jan 26, 2018 12:14am | Edited 11:01am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Post trade analysis does not cut anymore cos traders now are better informed and not easily taken in by 20/20 after the fact analysis. Got to come out with something at least like live trade calls to prove what you really are or not. Hehe GS
It was real Live Time analysis by Tom Leksey (the creator of LRA). I just show you how LRA works because you need to analyze by yourself.
This thread is not real time analysis, but about the basis of analysis.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2018-01-15 FX Report.pdf   164 KB | 672 downloads
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #119
  • Jan 26, 2018 12:48am Jan 26, 2018 12:48am
Quoting t8936
{quote} It was real Live Time analysis by Tom Leksey (the creator of LRA). I just show you how LRA works because you need to analyze by yourself. This thread is not real time analysis, but about the basis of analysis. {image}
10 yes ago, K Lien n Boris n Todd Gordon was my top Forex(not stock) analysts but sadly not anymore. Time have changed.

GS.
  • #120
  • Jan 26, 2018 1:03am Jan 26, 2018 1:03am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} 10 yes ago, K Lien n Boris n Todd Gordon was my top Forex(not stock) analysts but sadly not anymore. Time have changed. GS.
Try to understand LRA and you will be the greatest fun of this method. And you can not imagine how you have not used LRA before. You will always read the market as an open book and take maximum opportunities from it .

Moreover you will analyze the marker by Yourself which is very important for every trader!
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
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