Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

You'll see that the price did exactly the same off of the 2m 100sma. With all the 10 and 200 MAs still running up beneath the price, trying to catch a top by shorting is the riskiest type of trade in the business, and the most difficult. It can pay off, but the timing has to be spot on.

For retail traders it normally is...

Thanks as always.
(Trade always safe... I'm investing my profit of the day for the last LONG shot! With a tight stop!)

EDITED - Grabbed a good bunch of prisoners (I was pressing hard) and back again to the lows... for a new LONG attack.
All depends, to me, by what you want to see on your chart to think about a reverse.
To me we are still in uptrend.
And I obey to my rules. (Remember again, I'm playing with house money!)
We had a discussion on the matter on Piquant Thread this morning.
Question of technique, style, and temperament.

Thanks for the nice reminder, cat, as always. (DAX m5 chart)

Have a good weekend!

@13.438
Yes.
Question of technique, style, and temperament.
Have a nice week-end.

GER30_19_JANUARY_2018
https://br.tradingview.com/x/j4Ro2i5B/

Again.
And again.
And again. At each and every Trend.

We perfectly know the sad truth.

Dickson G. Watts, President of The New York Cotton Exchange between 1878 and 1880:
> "The success of one is the failure of a hundred."

fti - TAF #48908 -
> "With markets you either on her flow, or you are on the platter."

Pretty good potential for a top on the Dax tomorrow. I have potential resistance around the November high, so 13,550, though it can break a little higher to 13,600 or so. The last time the price made contact with this particular moving average was on the 7th November to the downside and it proved to be decisive, though beyond that they cannot be compared because November's move was away from the H2 200sma whereas any reversal now will be a counter trend movement back towards it.

I will be watching these levels carefully tomorrow.

Ed Seykota... words of wisdom.

"It Takes Two to Tango"... and the two have to be willing.

Could be a long drop this back to 13,200 or so. Pullbacks so far this morning have been to the 1m 200ema and then to the 1m 100sma. I have potential support right here at 413, so it might pull back a bit from here, or then again, it might not

3rd small pullback again to the 1m 200ema/sma, and big 30m shooting star just closed as well, so will this support hold or crack?

Because all the 200 moving averages are still to the south on the 10 tf and above, this support has the potential to lift the price above the Asian session high this afternoon, and if it does, then my top resistance is at 13,500 if it can get that high.

Just look at the Dow....complete manipulation, which is why I rarely trade it these days.

I may be wrong, but I can't see the Dow stopping until it hits 200. The dax looks like it's run out of steam both ways....thought it might push higher to 490 or so, but it's looking less likely as time goes on.

Not sure what caused the dip, but it shook a few positions out that's for sure. Now heading up again and I'm looking at a high 13,500 for the Dax and as posted above, 26,200 for the Dow or thereabouts.....both at the previous highs now, so double topping a possibility.

GER30_22_JANUARY_2018
https://br.tradingview.com/x/pwLnSdYf/

(Tried to post this one yesterday evening... but I had bad connection with FF.)

IMHO... it was just a damned, “normal”, well-executed manoeuvre of perfect stop hunting.

I had big profit and big positions in that moment, so I was surprised and shaken-out feeling myself under strong, direct attack.
So I closed all without hesitations, defending my earned money and my men.
End of mission one: end of the 1° trade as per the attached DAX H1 charts.
I must admit it was not simple at all to stay in that trend.
“No free lunch in the Market”... “No easy money in the market”... nothing new.
It took me time to re-assert my faith, reorganise my troops and re-enter!
But in the 2° trade I stayed really quiet and comfortable, going through all the bears' stop with extreme pleasure, until the close.

Another day in the Market. Another lesson on the old theme: Bulls, Bears and Pigs.
So, LET the trend be your friend.

Just to conclude my reasoning...
Note that shadow in the red circle... that was the first attack against Bulls' stop losses.
But that was easy to understand....
I told you... to me it was not simple. It was very technical indeed.

You won't see a more bullish start to a day than this morning, with US and EU stocks all hitting all time highs. Can't do any TA this morning, so I won't even bother to try.

Good luck!

600 is the R for now...just depends whether it'll hold?