Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

GER30_17_JANUARY_2018
https://br.tradingview.com/x/gS4fK6Sc/

Nice rise off of the H6 support I posted yesterday afternoon, so that support level still stands today. I've put the fibs on the way down, the 61.8 and the 76.4% being the most important. For those not yet short, I'd say wait for the London open which may lift the price a bit which should give an opportunity to go short. I say short, because I see more potential for a short until we get down to those support levels. Then, if the last few days is anything to go by, there should be a long opportunity back up to around today's high. Won't necessarily work out like that of course, but that's the best I can offer at the moment. Selling pressure is building though I think, so we could see a more prolonged selling bout, but that support level is still there, so we'll have to see.

Just to add, for anyone looking to go long instead of short, the resistance I have at the moment is the H1 200sma which is lying over the top of the price currently at 276, and the 61.8 fib is just below that at 270, and that is what seems to be what the price respected when it reached it during the Asian hours.

Plan worked out, but I'm not sure about this CP level support area at around 214 as it seems quite strong, and the price is coming back as I type. We could be in for a choppy old day, but it is super Thursday, and generally this is the day when we see the biggest moves on the Dax.

I'm liking the look of S1 ( 175 ) for a support level here for those who are short. If it gets there that is. The 76.4 is just below at 167. She's a messy old beast today though that's for sure.

As a multi-time frame trader, on days like this, when the picture is generally so ambiguous, I try to get the highest directional probability from my various time frames. Today the price is in a range and so it is chopping up and down. However, so far, the support level is pretty clear to us, and it is falling on my H2 200ema, which broke to the south yesterday, but which doesn't necessarily mean it will do the same today. Looking at the smaller time frames, I have support just below today's CP at around 210, which was broken today, but not by much, and I wouldn't expect it to hold to the pip anyway.

This current upward move has the potential to go quite high, as high I think as R2 at 13, 343, but, the Dow looks much more contained today than it was yesterday - I just do not see the upward potential on it that I saw yesterday, and so, if the Dow cannot put in a decent up move this afternoon, the Dax is unlikely to do any different. It's one of those days when you either have to bag profits early and trade the range, or, hold on at BE or minimal risk and hope it goes for you, because you never quite know with the Dax, especially on days like this.

Patience always pays in this game. I'll settle on R1 today - that's my high and my TP. Could go higher to R2, but R1 is the sensible option I think.

Very quick turnaround just like yesterday. So how low? Your guess is as good as mine, but I don't think it is going to drop as far as it did yesterday. and I think 229 will be a prudent place to exit. Don't quote me on it though!!

Wall St is taking a nosedive atm, so can Dax hold today's low? Super Thursday hasn't disappointed. There are always fast/big moves on a Thursday afternoon, almost without fail.

Hello everybody ...

Dax30 (h1)

inside a"c" ... 4(b5) wave

TP = a"c" + b"c" + c"c" = 13040 about


P.S.
waiting for ... 5(b5) upwave @ 13040

(maybe...)

I'm outa here. Catch you tomorrow.

as I wrote :

"3 things should know a trader:

Momentum (2nd price derivate) is the easiest to ... see,
Trend (price derivate) isn't so easy to ... read and
Price which might be difficult to ... understand it"

me too

GER30_18_JANUARY_2018
https://br.tradingview.com/x/KH7JujNk/

Morning Daxers!

I've got potential resistance ( R ) for this current up move at around 280-290. I think it may hold, at least temporarily. If it does, and it comes down a bit, then support around the CP @ 262 is a possibility, and lower the 30m 200ema @ 242 which supported the price in the Asian session. We then have the potential to move higher. More later.

God luck!

300 is the 76.4% fib retrace, which could also hold this current upside move.

Wow, the bulls are in charge. Well done if you got onto this move. I was hoping for a pullback.

350 is my tops for this. See how we go.

I said 350 because it is a round number, and it is just below the 76.4% fin plotted from the Jan 9th high, which is at 358. Today's R2 is at 368. So between 350 and 368, should be, and I repeat should be, pretty tough resistance. Go to the Daily chart however, and this move is free to move all the way up to the November high, provided it can get above 400, which I think is a big ask.

I don't know who gave the Dax rocket fuel this morning, but someone did!

My 2 day tf is interesting, as I have a possible resistance level at 13,528, which is exactly the November high. If Dax can get above where it is now, this is a possible target, and if it does get there and double tops, then that could be a very big level to short from.

There's always the danger in a situation like this of trying to short too early, especially before the price has made contact with the 1 minute 100sma, the first of the really important moving averages on the smallest significant time frame, as the price often rebounds off it. It can either move higher, or it can put in a lower high, which, is often a very good place to short, but shorting before the price has reached the 100sma always risks getting stopped out when using a tight stop loss.

Here's an example of my last post happening right now.