Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses | Page 16 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Major Pairs/Crosses - Trading Scenarios, Analyses & Forecasts 15 replies

Weekly/Monthly TOP Gainers Forexfactory Traders 4 replies

Long Term Analyses - EURUSD, GOLD, and S&P 76 replies

USD/CAD - Loonie Toons, & mostly pointless analyses 2 replies

Lazy analyses thread 56 replies

Attachments: Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses
Exit Attachments

Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #301
  • Jan 14, 2018 2:46pm Jan 14, 2018 2:46pm
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

NZD has been one of the strongest among the majors recently. On the weekly time frame, price action has entered a major resistance zone, which is around the 0.72590 area. However, the larger picture is that of a market operating in a consolidation area or horizontal channel (bound in magenta coloured horizontal lines). Thus, if price action breaks above the resistance around the 0.72590 area, a likely target of bulls is the channel resistance around the 0.73460 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_14th_Jan.,_2018_001.png Size: 40 KB


On the daily time frame, both the order flow context and the technicals are strongly in support of bulls. So we may expect a bullish continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_14th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 42 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action has breached to the north a resistance trendline (navy colour) from the high of July 27, 2017 and flipped it into a support. The most recent price action is struggling around the horizontal resistance around the 0.72590/0.72620 area but a support trendline (magenta colour) from the low of December 8, 2017 is still very much respected.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_14th_Jan.,_2018_001.png Size: 51 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #302
  • Jan 14, 2018 3:02pm Jan 14, 2018 3:02pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Since mid-December 2017, price action on the GBPUSD has been northward in disposition. The northward mode continued last week with a relatively big bullish candlestick on the weekly time frame. Technicals on the weekly time frame are still in favour of bulls. Should there be a follow-through this week, a likely target of bulls is the immediate resistance around the 1.38350/1.39150 area. The support trendline (chocolate coloured) from the low of March 2017 is still very much in play.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_14th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 40 KB


Price action on the daily time frame is respecting an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of March 2017. This is further northward away from the support trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the weekly time frame. An inner support trendline (magenta colour) has also emerged and indicates an increased northward momentum. Although generally the northward disposition on GBPUSD is not yet breached technically, as price action was parabolic last Friday and has moved further up away from the mean value area, I expect it to retrace southward early this week. The inner support trendline (magenta colour) is likely to be broken southward by such a retracement, which may target the immediate horizontal support around the 1.34460 area, or even the main support trendline on the daily time frame (navy colour), before a northward turnaround. Thereafter, we may see price action operate sideways around the 1.38350/1.39150 area for a while.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_14th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 54 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #303
  • Jan 14, 2018 3:23pm Jan 14, 2018 3:23pm
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the monthly time frame, bears pushed price action on this pair southward from a major resistance and hit a minor support around the 1.65190 area before it was pushed back northward by bulls. Generally, on the monthly time frame, price action is still hugging the horizontal resistance around the 1.69350 area but the candlestick is printing bearish.

On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of February 2017. This trendline formed an ascending channel with the highs of recent candlesticks. Last week, a pinbar-like bullish candlestick was formed and tested the channel support. Should bulls follow through on this pinbar, the horizontal resistance around the 1.69350 area is likely to be an initial target and it is within reach. This area is proximal to the monthly central pivot. As price action is around the mean value area, such a bullish move is likely to be feasible and may gain momentum if bulls significantly clear the 1.69350 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_14th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 45 KB


On the daily time frame, price action has formed four corrective price waves in the ascending channel seen on the weekly time frame (bound in chocolate coloured lines). A fifth price wave was bearing southward from channel resistance but bulls were resisting the move. Recent price action is under the influence of bulls and they may take price action to the next horizontal resistance around the 1.69350 area. This is in confluence with the 38.2/50.0 Fib retracement zone of the swing down from the high of December 1, 2017. It is also proximal to the monthly central pivot. This is an area I will be watching for a sell trading opportunity should a setup be seen on a daily or H4 closing basis. A breach of that zone northward on a daily closing basis will see me step aside and wait for a buy setup with a view to targeting the channel resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_14th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 54 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (bound in navy coloured lines). This represents the fifth price wave being formed on the daily time frame. The most recent price action is around a minor support and under the control of bulls. We may see price action retrace further northward but there are a few minor barriers to the north. The major resistance is around the 1.69350 area and this will be an area of interest to me for a sell trading opportunity should a setup be found there. It is in confluence with the 38.2/50.0 Fib retracement zone of the swing down from the high of December 1, 2017. It is also proximal to the monthly central pivot.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_14th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 54 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #304
  • Jan 14, 2018 3:46pm Jan 14, 2018 3:46pm
I am bearish on this pair. I will look for a sell trading opportunity around the 38.2/50 Fib zone, in fact it may extend to the 61.8 Fib level. The area I will be watching is shown bound by the two horizontal magenta coloured lines on the H4 time frame, i.e. between 1.69230 and 1.70680. A breach of that area northward on a daily closing basis will see me step aside and wait for a buy setup with a view to targeting the channel resistance.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_14th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 54 KB


Quoting KeenPips
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook On the monthly time frame, bears pushed price action on this pair southward from a major resistance and hit a minor support around the 1.65190 area before it was pushed back northward by bulls. Generally, on the monthly time frame, price action is still hugging the horizontal resistance around the 1.69350 area but the candlestick is printing bearish. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of February 2017. This trendline formed an ascending channel...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #305
  • Jan 21, 2018 3:00pm Jan 21, 2018 3:00pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on the GBPUSD has been disposed northward for quite a while. An ascending channel (bound by navy coloured lines) can be seen on the weekly timeframe from January 2017. This followed a decline which began in July 2014. The most recent price action is around the 38.2 Fib retracement zone of the decline and bulls are in control of the recent order flow. Last week, the bulls took price action to the channel resistance and in an area that is in confluence with the horizontal resistance (i.e. the 1.39750 area) but bears resisted the move. This area was last traversed southward by price action in June 2016. As this is is a confluence of resistance, we may see further southward pullback into the channel in the days ahead. However, anything can happen. If bulls beat the confluence of resistance, we may see a strong northward momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_21_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 41 KB


On the daily time frame, price action printed a bearish rejection candlestick around the confluence of resistance last week Friday. This confluence of resistance includes an ascending trendline (chocolate) from August 2017. This confluence of resistance technically lends weight to the possibility of a southward turnaround of price action in this area. And an immediate target of bears for any follow-through this week is likely to be the 1.37000 area, which is the next minor support. This may extend southward to test and validate a support trendline (magenta) from the low of December 27, 2017 before a northward turnaround. Should bears fail to follow through, bulls are likely to seize the initiative for a swift northward turnaround. As a technical trader with a swing trading style, I will wait to see how price action on this pair develops on Monday even though technically the short-term mode favours bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_21_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 44 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #306
  • Jan 21, 2018 3:21pm Jan 21, 2018 3:21pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD has been on the upward mode for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action on the pair has entered a resistance zone around the 1.23420 area. Last week, the candlestick printed on the weekly time frame was ambivalent, but bears became influential by the close of session. We may expect bears to push price action southward in the early part of the week. A sideways operation is also a possibility given that price action is in a resistance zone that was last traversed southward in December 2014.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_21_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 38 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline (navy) from the low of December 18, 2017. Notice, however, that price action has breached to the upside a resistance trendline (chocolate) from recent highs. Since then, and for much of last week, price action was operating sideways above this trendline and below the significant resistance zone around the 1.23420 area. We may expect a pullback of price action early this week to retest this trendline and validate it as support before further northward momentum. Nevertheless, should bears push price action further southward we can still expect a bullish mode on this pair as long as the support trendine (navy) from the low of December 18, 2017 is still intact. I will see such a move as an opportunity to look for a buy trading setup on this pair.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_21_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 40 KB


On the H4 time frame, recent price action has been operating within an ascending channel (bound by purple coloured lines) after some topping pattern. A breach of the channel to the south is much likely in the offing as price action in the latter part of last week saw bears strongly influential. A breach of channel support is likely to see bears target the ascending trendline (chocolate) below the channel or the minor support around the 1.20700 area. Such a move is very likely to be a corrective one as the market mode favours the bulls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_21_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 40 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #307
  • Edited 3:51pm Jan 21, 2018 3:40pm | Edited 3:51pm
GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on the GBPJPY has been disposed northward for quite a while. An ascending channel (bound by magenta coloured lines) can be seen on the weekly timeframe from April 2017. This followed a decline which began in August 2015. The most recent price action is around the 38.2 Fib retracement zone of the decline but operating in a consolidation phase. Within the middle of the main ascending channel (magenta), a minor and narrower ascending channel (navy) has formed. In the last three weeks, price action has been sideways in this minor channel and proximal to a horizontal resistance zone around the 152.150/154.140 area. Technically, the market mode is ambivalent and requires further clarity of price action in the next few days; stepping aside is advised.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_21_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 46 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is operating around the resistance of the minor ascending channel (navy) seen on the weekly time frame. The shooting star candlestick formed at the channel resistance last week Thursday was followed up by a bearish candlestick on Friday but bulls managed to push price action upward. Wave traders may look at the larger picture of the impulsive move on the left and treat current price action as part of a correction to consummate a leg down to the support line of the bigger channel (magenta) seen on the weekly time frame. However, we need further clarity of price action in the next few days.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_21_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 51 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action has rejected the resistance of the minor channel (navy) seen on the weekly time frame. However, on Friday, bulls managed to push price northward to around the 32.8 Fib retracement of the most recent swing down. Bears resisted the move and pressed price action southward. If bulls successfully resist bears in the early part of this week, we may see price action move further north to around the 50/61.8 Fib zone before a southward turn around; this area (153.690/154.020) is bound by blue coloured lines on the attached H4 chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_21_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 43 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #308
  • Jan 28, 2018 3:17pm Jan 28, 2018 3:17pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBP has been the strongest among its peers recently. Last week, GBPUSD continued a bullish move that started in December 2017. In fact, the weekly candlestick printed last week was the largest since December 2017. However, bears managed to curtail the bullish momentum towards the end of last week. Price action has not yet breached an ascending trendline (chocolate) from the low of January 2017. Furthermore, current price action is located around a minor resistance at the 1.41870 area. This is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib retracement zone of the swing down from the high of June 2014 to the low of October 2016. The fact that price action struggled in this zone last week signposts a likely retracement or further sideways operation in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_28th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 47 KB


On the daily time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (navy) for quite a while. But last week Wednesday, price action broke above the channel resistance ; bears pushed it back for a retest of the channel line on Thursday although the attempt was feeble. The Friday candlestick was ambivalent and we may expect further sideways operation around the channel resistance in the early part of this week. Should bulls manage to take price action northward, we may see a natural target of such a move around the 1.44460 area. Alternatively, bears may push price action back into the channel and retest a support trendline (magenta) being respected by recent price action. This appears to be a much more likely possibility as recent price action has moved too far from the mean and a correction is likely to be in the offing.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_28th_Jan.,_2017.png Size: 46 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #309
  • Jan 28, 2018 3:24pm Jan 28, 2018 3:24pm
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the weekly time frame, price action on this pair has bore northward for much of the past six months. Seven weeks ago, an ascending trendline (chocolate) from the low of August 2017 was breached southward by price action. However, since then price action has been largely sideways. Three weeks ago, a tiny bullish pinbar was formed and bulls have followed through since to push price further northward, perhaps to target and retest the ascending trendline which was earlier breached. But bulls will have to contend with a major horizontal resistance around the 1.96300 area before such a target can be attained. We should note that the bullish candlestick printed last week was strongly restrained by bears towards the close of the session. This means that bears were stepping in to curtail further northward move. Thus, we may see some sideways price action, or a retracement southward, in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_28th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 39 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a symmetrical triangle. Recent price action has just moved southward of the resistance line with a bearish print on Thursday and Friday last week. It is apparent that the bullish candlestick printed last week Wednesday is acting as a control candlestick; and we may see price action move further southward to test the low of this candlestick, which is in confluence with the immediate support around the 1.90200 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_28th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 44 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #310
  • Jan 28, 2018 3:35pm Jan 28, 2018 3:35pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on this pair has been operating within a 700-pip range (magenta) on the weekly time frame for quite a long while. Price action is currently located around the support line of the range. For much of December 2017, price action consolidated a 160 pips below the resistance line of the range. But since the first week of January 2018, bears have pushed price action southward covering more than 450 pips within three weeks. This represents a strong bearish intent. However, although last week bears made a strong attempt to breach the support line, bulls curtailed the move and bears failed to take out the support. We can expect a struggle for control between bulls and bears in the early part of this week. The technicals are in sync with bears’ mood and the support line is only about 80 pips from their reach.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_28th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 40 KB


On the daily time frame, price action has moved southward and rather too far from the mean and a retracement may be in the offing. However, because recent order flow has been largely influenced by bears we may see a brief southward move or a sideways operation before the retracement. A retracement of price action northward is likely to validate a resistance trendline (navy) before any further southward move. The 110.780/111.200 area is likely to be a target of bulls for such a retracement; this area is in confluence with a minor horizontal resistance and the 50.0/61.8 Fib zone of the most recent swing down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_28th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 50 KB


On the H4 time frame, it is apparent that recent price action has seen bulls and bears struggling for control and a sideways operation taking place. It is better to wait for clarity of price action in the early part of this week before a directional bias can be confidently taken.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_28th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 43 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #311
  • Feb 4, 2018 3:10pm Feb 4, 2018 3:10pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD failed to maintain its northward momentum last week. On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago price action moved over 300 pips to break through a strong S/R zone and entered the next resistance zone where bears curtailed further upward move. Last week, bulls attempted to take price action further northward but failed to take out the high of the bullish candlestick formed a week earlier. In fact, price action printed a small doji-like candlestick. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the trend is still northward on the weekly time frame as an ascending trendline (chocolate) from the low of April 2017 is still intact. But we may expect a pullback as the location of price action is far from the mean. Alternatively, should bulls manage to take price action further northward, we may expect them to target the 1.25900 handle, which was last visited and crossed southward in December 2014.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_4th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 40 KB


On the daily time frame, price action has been ranging for several days. Last week Friday, bears managed to push price action southward but failed to breach below the base (magenta) of the consolidation formed several days earlier. As price action is at a resistance zone, we may see further sideways operation or pullback before any further northward momentum can be maintained. A likely target of such southward pullback is the immediate support around the 1.22880 area. Should bears become too strong for bulls, we may see the pullback retest a support trendline (navy) from the low of December 18, 2017. Such a move is likely to be corrective in nature. However, should the support trendline (navy) be breached southward on a daily close basis, it may open up a technical reassessment of the market on this pair.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_4th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 40 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action has been respecting an ascending trendline (magenta) for quite a while. However, recently, price action has been hitting the trendline too often; which suggests a possibility of a southward breach of the trendline. Should that breach materialize, we may see bears target the immediate support around the 1.22880 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_4th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 41 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #312
  • Feb 4, 2018 3:31pm Feb 4, 2018 3:31pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on this pair has disposed northward for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, it was obvious that bears had been making effort to curtail the northward move since two weeks ago. Last week they succeeded in driving price action below the significant support around the 1.41200 area. Bulls resisted the move and a doji-like candlestick printed as the outcome of the session close. However, price action is still located in an S/R zone and we can expect a sideways operation before directional clarity is obtained.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_4th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 36 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a consolidation mode (bound in chocolate coloured lines). As the location of price action is too far from the mean and in confluence with a resistance zone, we may expect a pullback before any further northward momentum can materialize. Price action may retrace to the monthly central pivot (around 1.39960) and may extend to the next support around the 1.38350 area. Technically the short-term mode favours bears but the medium-term direction is technically synced with bulls. That will be the case unless price action breaks below a support trendine (navy) from the low of November 13, 2017 on a daily close basis.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_4th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 38 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #313
  • Feb 4, 2018 3:41pm Feb 4, 2018 3:41pm
GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on GBPJPY has struggled for a while within a significant resistance zone. From the last week of December 2017 to the middle of January 2018, price action on the weekly time frame has been largely sideways. Last week, bulls made a strong move and pushed price action to the next resistance zone around the 155.680 area. Before the close of session, however, bears briefly pushed price action back although the candlestick printed was relatively bullish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_4th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 35 KB


On the daily time frame, price action has been operating in a wedge (bound by navy coloured lines) for a while. Most recent price action is located around the distal (or resistance) line of the wedge. Besides, a resistance trendline (navy) from the high of September 21, 2017 is in confluence with the wedge resistance line. A bearish pinbar printed last Friday around this confluence of resistance. There is a likelihood that bears will follow through with further southward move in the early part of this week. A likely target of bears is the channel support, which may extend to the 151.280 area, the immediate horizontal support. Technically, I do not see momentum for any bullish move until a southward retracement has taken place.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_4th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 41 KB


On the H4 time frame, it can be seen that technically the impulsive trend is northward and a simple wave count shows that recent price action is in a corrective phase. But the technical mood is southward with a possible initial target around the 151.280 area. Thus, the technicals support a bearish bias in the short term.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_4th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 43 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #314
  • Feb 4, 2018 3:52pm Feb 4, 2018 3:52pm
I hold a short-term bearish bias on this pair. I will maintain this bias until price action prints a bullish set-up after its southward retracement, perhaps around the 1.38350 area.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook Price action on this pair has disposed northward for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, it was obvious that bears had been making effort to curtail the northward move since two weeks ago. Last week they succeeded in driving price action below the significant support around the 1.41200 area. Bulls resisted the move and a doji-like candlestick printed as the outcome of the session close. However, price action is still located in an S/R zone and we can expect a sideways operation before directional clarity is obtained....
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #315
  • Feb 4, 2018 3:53pm Feb 4, 2018 3:53pm
The first day of trading this week should be interesting to watch. It is apparent that technically bears tend to be favoured in the short-term. But the 1.25900 area may be too tempting for bulls and we may see them take charge of price action very quickly. I will step aside on Monday. If later in the week bears manage to push price action southward I will look to buying the dip should a favorable setup present itself on the H4 time frame.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook EURUSD failed to maintain its northward momentum last week. On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago price action moved over 300 pips to break through a strong S/R zone and entered the next resistance zone where bears curtailed further upward move. Last week, bulls attempted to take price action further northward but failed to take out the high of the bullish candlestick formed a week earlier. In fact, price action printed a small doji-like candlestick. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the trend is still northward...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #316
  • Feb 11, 2018 3:05pm Feb 11, 2018 3:05pm
AUDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been ranging for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending triangle (chocolate) since November 2016. Last week, a relatively big bearish candlestick broke the wedge support line and hit the immediate horizontal support around the 83.990 area. However, before the close of the weekly session, bulls managed to push price action up to the 85.010 area. It should be noted that price action since October 2017 has been ranging in the 38.2 – 61.8 Fib retracement zone of the swing down from the high of November 2014 to the low of June 2016. Much likely we may expect bears to take the price action further southward should they break below the 83.990 area, which is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib and a significant horizontal support. Looking left of the attached weekly chart, we can see that the impulsive wave is southward.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_11th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 48 KB


On the daily time frame, recent price action is around the support line of the ascending triangle seen on the weekly time frame. Bulls were curtailing the gains made by bears in the early part of last week but the order flow context is very much under the influence of bears. However, we may see a retracement northward or a sideways operation in the early part of this week before further southward momentum is achieved, moreso that price action is a bit far (more than 130 pips) from the mean. A likely target of bulls for any retracement is the 86.230 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_11th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 46 KB


On the H4 time frame, we can see that price action has entered a support zone which it traversed northward in June 2017. It is natural to expect some reaction at such a zone, this may be a retracement or a sideways/ranging operation before any further southward momentum. A likely target for bulls is the immediate resistance around the 86.230 area, while bears are likely to be interested in the immediate support around the 81.805 area. Of course, there are minor barriers for both bulls and bears to tackle along the way before reaching the potential targets.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_11th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 54 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #317
  • Feb 11, 2018 3:27pm Feb 11, 2018 3:27pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on USDJPY has largely been sideways since March 2017, although the range of consolidation spans between 114.430 and 108.400; which is more than 550 pips. On the weekly time frame, in the past three weeks price action has moved to around the proximal end of the range and has formed a micro consolidation or range spanning about 260 pips. Last week, an attempt by bears to break down the range was curtailed by bulls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_11th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 42 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action has entered a support zone which it traversed northward on September 11, 2017. Last week, price action ranged around the zone before it retraced to the mean. We may expect a bearish continuation this week. An initial target for bears is likely to be the 107.550 area, the low of September 8, 2017; this may extend to the 107.310 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_11th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 46 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #318
  • Feb 11, 2018 3:47pm Feb 11, 2018 3:47pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Three weeks ago, price action slightly disposed bearish after a 78.6 Fib retracement of the swing down from the high of June 2016 to the low of January 2017. This was followed by an indecision candlestick, an inside bar, two weeks ago. Last week saw a major move by bears to push price below the low of the bullish candlestick formed three weeks ago; which they succeeded in doing. Current price action is now located at a horizontal support around the 1.38100 area, which is in confluence with the 61.8 Fib zone. Furthermore, an ascending trendline (chocolate) is still in play as support. The technicals on the weekly time frame are synced for further bearish move. But we may expect price action to struggle around the 1.35890 area, which represents a confluence of horizontal support, a trendline support and a 50 Fib zone. Until then, I see bears making a strong showing.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_11th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 42 KB


On the daily time frame, recent price action has been largely bearish and the order flow context is very much in favour of bears. A support trendline (navy) has been broken southward but the ascending trendline (chocolate) seen on the weekly time frame is still in play. The zone between the two trendlines is likely to act as support for a while until the weekly ascending trendline (chocolate) is broken down. Alternatively, price action may swing north and establish a bullish mode, particularly when it reaches the 1.35890 area or bounces off the weekly ascending trendline (chocolate).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_11th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 40 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action has retraced northward and is consolidating around the support trendline (navy) seen on the daily time frame. A piercing formation was printed on Friday and was followed up by some sideways operation within the mean area and around the support trendline (navy). This situation suggests the likelihood of a bearish continuation. If bears manage to break down the horizontal support around the 1.38100 area, we may expect them to target the 1.35890 area. However, this does not preclude price action from turning northward around the 1.38100 area.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_11th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 40 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #319
  • Feb 11, 2018 3:51pm Feb 11, 2018 3:51pm
I will step aside on Monday for the market on this pair to show its hands; particularly as the current location of price action, and the support trendline, is too close to the horizontal support around the 1.38100 area.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook Three weeks ago, price action slightly disposed bearish after a 78.6 Fib retracement of the swing down from the high of June 2016 to the low of January 2017. This was followed by an indecision candlestick, an inside bar, two weeks ago. Last week saw a major move by bears to push price below the low of the bullish candlestick formed three weeks ago; which they succeeded in doing. Current price action is now located at a horizontal support around the 1.38100 area, which is in confluence with the 61.8 Fib zone. Furthermore,...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #320
  • Feb 11, 2018 3:53pm Feb 11, 2018 3:53pm
I am bearish on this pair. However, I will wait for a retracement of price action to within the 85.010/86.230 zone before I look for a sell trading opportunity.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
AUDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook The pair has been ranging for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending triangle (chocolate) since November 2016. Last week, a relatively big bearish candlestick broke the wedge support line and hit the immediate horizontal support around the 83.990 area. However, before the close of the weekly session, bulls managed to push price action up to the 85.010 area. It should be noted that price action since October 2017 has been ranging in the 38.2 – 61.8 Fib retracement zone...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
3 traders viewing now