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Attachments: Locked-in Range Analysis (LRA)
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Locked-in Range Analysis (LRA)

  • #21
  • Jan 5, 2018 11:07am Jan 5, 2018 11:07am
Canadian Dollar Support LR in action

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Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #22
  • Jan 5, 2018 2:55pm Jan 5, 2018 2:55pm
Quoting t8936
Canadian Dollar Support LR in action {image}
Hey t8936,
I had a read through the free pdf from the website and was wondering if you had any sources other sources showing how to draw the zones. I didn't fully understand how they are decided upon after reading through..
nollej is power..
  • #23
  • Jan 6, 2018 11:26am Jan 6, 2018 11:26am
Quoting nollej
{quote}...how to draw the zones. I didn't fully understand how they are decided
Example: Crude Oil Futures Period: 22 September – 6 October

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Let's begin from the simple example. Don't you understand how the LR above is determined?
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #24
  • Jan 7, 2018 5:31am Jan 7, 2018 5:31am
Quoting t8936
{quote} Example: Crude Oil Futures Period: 22 September – 6 October {image} Let's begin from the simple example. Don't you understand how the LR above is determined?
Hello,
No for me its not clear what I should actually be looking for and in what order after reading through the PDF..
nollej is power..
  • #25
  • Jan 7, 2018 6:43am Jan 7, 2018 6:43am
Quoting nollej
{quote} Hello, No for me its not clear what I should actually be looking for and in what order after reading through the PDF..
You are not the only one, i still dont get it.
  • #26
  • Jan 7, 2018 8:53am Jan 7, 2018 8:53am
Nice thread, but are you able to show us newbies some live trades entries so we can learn LRA. Don't need any reveal of strategies, just live entries and exit using LRA of what u preached. Thanks you in advance.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #27
  • Jan 7, 2018 10:15am Jan 7, 2018 10:15am
Quoting kinspk
Nice thread, but are you able to show us newbies some live trades entries so we can learn LRA. Don't need any reveal of strategies, just live entries and exit using LRA of what u preached. Thanks you in advance.
LRA don't give you the signals to enter and exit, because it is utopia. And everyone who promises to you this is an idiot or just want to earn on you from signals.
LRA is bigger than signals, it gives you the understanding of the market and an opportunity to profit from use of it.

As for the Crude Oil example above, we have a preference: Short positions below resistance LR 51.73-51.30
And this is the reason why: The breakout of Low extremum of LR (TPSL 1 Low) and previous swing Low (TPSL 2 Low), the end of next trading day without price return to LR are indicators pointing to the volume imbalance of prevailing “Buy” open positions until the price goes out of LR. There is a probability of having the remaining “Buy” open positions in the range.

So we can open short positions at any price and set your stop loss above LR.
It is logical that the closer to the LR you enter, the better your have ratio Profit/Loss.

Tom Leksey says, "Each person can have his own approach to trading; there can be an unlimited number of for entry and exit price, but LRA should be the basis for weighted speculative decision-making that allow to multiply the available funds, because trades that are not based on any cause-effect relationships are intuition-based and making such trades it is impossible to achieve stable profitable results in the long term."
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #28
  • Jan 7, 2018 1:55pm Jan 7, 2018 1:55pm
Quoting t8936
{quote} LRA don't give you the signals to enter and exit, because it is utopia. And everyone who promises to you this is an idiot or just want to earn on you from signals. LRA is bigger than signals, it gives you the understanding of the market and an opportunity to profit from use of it. As for the Crude Oil example above, we have a preference: Short positions below resistance LR 51.73-51.30 And this is the reason why: The breakout of Low extremum of LR (TPSL 1 Low) and previous swing Low (TPSL 2 Low), the end of next trading day without price...
Hmmm. So you start calling people idiots, when someone ask you about something you cant show?

Maybe you can show how you gonna apply this strategy in a trade with limitation of how much you wanna show.

Last post for me. Hope no one get cheated here.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #29
  • Jan 7, 2018 3:01pm Jan 7, 2018 3:01pm
Quoting kinspk
{quote} you cant show? Maybe you can show how you gonna apply this strategy in a trade with limitation of how much you wanna show.
Sorry? Can't show? There are 3 examples in the thread already.

Ok. This is the 4 about Crude Oil above.

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Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #30
  • Jan 7, 2018 3:42pm Jan 7, 2018 3:42pm
Quoting t8936
{quote} Sorry? Can't show? There are 3 examples in the thread already. Ok. This is the 4 about Crude Oil above. {image}
I have read the ebook from the site and honestly everything you seem to have posted here is taken from this ebook.. So I only kindly ask that you point out, in a little clearer sense, how these levels are exactly decided upon, as I mentioned, to me it is not so clear.. If you are not here to teach anything and only to copy and paste from the book and the reports from the site that is OK, just make it clear and I wont bother you anymore
nollej is power..
  • #31
  • Jan 7, 2018 10:09pm Jan 7, 2018 10:09pm
Quoting nollej
{quote} how these levels are exactly decided upon, as I mentioned, to me it is not so clear..
Locked-in Range (LR) is a trading range with high volume within TPSL 1 levels.

TPSL 1 is determined principally on the basis of:
1) The nearest previous Swing High/Low before the current range (Reason: Technical analysis)
2) High/Low prices of the current range (Reason: Technical analysis)
3) Addition X points to High/Low prices of the current range, where X is equal to the height of the current range in points (Reason: Psychology)
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #32
  • Edited Jan 8, 2018 12:18am Jan 7, 2018 11:11pm | Edited Jan 8, 2018 12:18am
I am not sure why readers are complaining about what is being shared here. I am a noob when it comes to futures market and even i am able to understand in bits and pieces on information shared here. Not sure what ebook is being referenced but certainly a topic of further enhancing our knowledge and apply it to our own trading. Kudos to the OP for introducing Futures on FoolsFactory. I see light at the end of tunnel as I will soon move out of spot FX.

My own trading style in spot FX reflects that of a marketmaker via managing my own book of open positions I.e. managing used/available margin via average breakeven, net exposure and profit taking at stop hunt levels among other techniques.

"Why most traders must lose money in the futures market (Forex) by Tom Leksey" - I have not read this book but i completely agree that most teaders HAVE to lose in any market for market makers to make the market tradable. And the best way for traders to lose and to enable market makers to move price from one level to the next is to publish strategies in forums like these and advocate using SL and TP and pending Stop and Limit orders to show up on our broker's orderbook. As traders, one has to be completely discrete about their open positions, and their risk/profit levels. Being discrete is the only tool we have in our toolchest to survive this competetive dog eat dog world of trading imho. The sooner we learn this the better becomes our chance of survivability beyond a few years.

Subscribed !
Staying in my lane...
  • #33
  • Jan 8, 2018 1:08am Jan 8, 2018 1:08am
And some questiona to simplify this concept....

1) why daily and H1 timeframe only? These levels should be visible and tradable even on tick charts.

2) In your experience, is there any significance or correlation between direction of Breaking out of a range and whether high or low is reached first within the 24 H1 bars?

3) since what we see on charts is a reflection/inversion of what market maker is doing to manage it's open book of positions, would you agree trading counter trend on lower timeframes offers a better risk to reward ? What I mean by this is to trade the bounce off SLTP levels rather than trade breakouts out of a range (as there is no way to predict direction of breakout)

4) Hypothetically speaking, if there were to be only one global market maker on one global centralized exchange per trading instrument, would you agree that trends will seize to exist? I.e. price will be stuck in a range to avoid market maker from going bust.
5) I would love to read your perspective on retail Spot FX market structure or the industry itself? Could a retail trader really trade fulltime and successfully earn income from trading in a deregulated decentralized environment?
Staying in my lane...
  • #34
  • Jan 8, 2018 1:25am Jan 8, 2018 1:25am
Quoting t8936
{quote} Sorry? Can't show? There are 3 examples in the thread already. Ok. This is the 4 about Crude Oil above. {image}
i think that was the best post, made things clear. Nice job.
  • #35
  • Jan 8, 2018 1:32am Jan 8, 2018 1:32am
Quoting VEEFX
I am not sure why readers are complaining about what is being shared here. I am a noob when it comes to futures market and even i am able to understand in bits and pieces on information shared here. Not sure what ebook is being referenced but certainly a topic of further enhancing our knowledge and apply it to our own trading. Kudos to the OP for introducing Futures on FoolsFactory. I see light at the end of tunnel as I will soon move out of spot FX. My own trading style in spot FX reflects that of a marketmaker via managing my own book of open...
The move from spot to futures doesnt mean that you will see the true light even if you go deep with things like orderflow/lvl2. The are almost the same market at each symbol, E6 is the same with EURUSD, since we live in high tech times, quants arbitrage and keep every market correlated at the same levels. ETF to futures to cfd. Same participants, same people, same choices. No magic.
  • #36
  • Jan 8, 2018 1:39am Jan 8, 2018 1:39am
Quoting t8936
{quote} Sorry? Can't show? There are 3 examples in the thread already. Ok. This is the 4 about Crude Oil above. {image}
Attached Image
  • #37
  • Jan 8, 2018 1:52am Jan 8, 2018 1:52am
Quoting stoxos
{quote} The move from spot to futures doesnt mean that you will see the true light even if you go deep with things like orderflow/lvl2. The are almost the same market at each symbol, E6 is the same with EURUSD, since we live in high tech times, quants arbitrage and keep every market correlated at the same levels. ETF to futures to cfd. Same participants, same people, same choices. No magic.
Agree but I am fed up with worrying about safety of funds and scams in retail spot FX. There are very few options for US traders dealng with legit offshore (and onshore) brokers after exit of FXCM from US.
Staying in my lane...
  • #38
  • Jan 8, 2018 1:58am Jan 8, 2018 1:58am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Agree but I am fed up with worrying about safety of funds and scams in retail spot FX. There are very few options for US traders dealng with legit offshore (and onshore) brokers after exit of FXCM from US.
Yeah for that perspective you are absolute right i agree with that. Futures or any other Exchanged centralized proper market that is very heavy regulated and fair for all participants with same access of info, is always the only and the safest option.
  • #39
  • Jan 8, 2018 4:24am Jan 8, 2018 4:24am
Quoting VEEFX
And some questiona to simplify this concept.... 1) why daily and H1 timeframe only? These levels should be visible and tradable even on tick charts.
I will try to answer all your questions in order.

If you use 10min timeframe or less, there is a lot of "market noise". What does it mean? For example you find the 5 min' support LR (> Sell Open Positions), but the main sentiment (1H & 1D) is Buy or Undefined, so your support LR doesn't have enough imbalance to continue to influence the quotation of the price.

This is the right way to find your enter when you are guided by 1 Hour LRA, but you must be prepared for an increased number of errors. Because 5min LRs have a short time of holding positions and because the locked-in ranges you can define with a delay then, by the time of recognition, this range can be empty of OP.
Don't be a Lucky-trader! Just make cause-and-effect trades!
  • #40
  • Edited 7:16am Jan 8, 2018 6:43am | Edited 7:16am
This is what we call the safe trade. Its a very high probability trade setup. This is what you should look for. Seems OP is making this unnecessarily complicated.

 

  1. Price creating a pivot point and forming a balance area.
  2. As price trades back and forth the more times it fails to break that high the more liquidity is built in that area especially if price starts to make lower lows an lower highs in that balance area.
  3. A fast break of that high will trap all the sellers in that balance area.
  4. Now you need to watch what they do with that liquidity. Do they buy it or do the sell it.
  5. If they BUY it price will stay above the red line. Look for the following price action.

    1. Short down bars, possibly with pins underneath (showing buyers and the market maker willing to take the otherside of the trade)
    2. decreasing volume
    3. A slow grinding move back to the S/R liquidity level.
    4. The trapped sellers will now panic and will do anything to get off their trade for a break even, when price returns to the level all those sellers turn to buyers and price makes a move higher.


  6. If it was the stop run and the they Sell the liquidity price will trade back very quickly into the balance area. You want to see volume increasing as it move back into the balance area. Expect a low volume tap of that red line and then for price to trade through to the other side of the balance area.

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