consumer confidence today

consumer confidence should be good candidite for fading if the numbers are 100 /102

Consensus is 103.

EUR has a similar data showing low EZ confidence.

Its best that US Consumer Confidence were to come out 104++

This will move EURUSD/GBPUSD down strongly!

But what if its lower than 103?

Housing was a "not so bad after all" and USD gained strength. I personally think that the same "sentiment" will dominate later, ie "hey its not that bad" unless of course its convincingly bad.

Just to provide further information, the Reuters consensus for this data is 102.3.

The details are quite interesting - This is based on a poll of 81 analysts. The outliers on the downside are Nord LB and BNP Paribas with forecasts of 97 and 98 respectively. There are a greater number of analysts going for the 104-105 levels (105.0 is the absolute highest estimate, with about 10 analysts calling for this number).

all the best

Waiting for the retrace

me too!

but we have been waiting a long time, maybe too long...

good call chief!

Once it hits 80 for the euro, its a buy! for me that is. Ill wait for another 10 min, if it doesnt go up, ill trade another day. THe lowest was at 70. Hopefully it will go back up...

Should be good entry point to short GBP/USD at 8956!

If you look at the 5 minute chart, GBP was in a nice upward channel. When the news came out, it broke down, then, in a classic, textbook move, retraced back up to the lower channel line - your 8956 point. We'll see if it was a false breakout or not, but, I agree with your assessment that it's a great spot to enter down with minimum risk.

Well, to me it seems that a retrace wont happen anytime soon (unless someone posts their actions here on retraces). I dont want to be at my screen waiting for it to hit 79-80 mark to enter a trade. The dollar is strong today, so no trade for me. GL merlin with retrace.

GBPUSD already retraced, EURUSD hasnt..

Conclusion: Weak EUR on account of that IFO number earlier.

Holy Crap! Attention was with EURUSD, GBPUSD; anyone watching USDJPY?

10:45, Heads up: GBPUSD starting to move down.

FYI: USD Index is doing better today.

DAMN!!! The Yen is WEAK now. Must be their new prime minister (japan). I checked yahoo news, it reported their new PM about 1 hour ago, which can explain why their curreny went up within the last hour. But teh trend started around 1.5-2 hours ago. Man, i should have jumped on this. Hehe, i always check yahoo news every morning too. Oww well, i guess i am still learning in the FA trading style. Correction, made a mistake, thought i saw a JPY/ USD, it was the other way around. T


Lesson: New PM in a stable country WITH the majority of the votes= market mover.


IT seems that it is a good time to enter the EUR/USD trade, looks like the retrace is starting (10:58 Eastern time). But i wont enter it. Strong dollar is not worth competing against.

hunter,

correction, JPY is weak - weak just like what japanese wanted it to be.

therefore, they are very much confident with their new PM.

I edited it BK, thanx. Also, i called the retrace perfectly on teh Euro. Since hte lowest was at 1.2663, i would have entered at 1.2673 for teh long (trigger to buy). And since that time (10 minutes or so) now its at 1.2680 area. There was a 10 pip move, enough to make a man happy for the day. . Cant trade them all.