Consumer Confidence

I studied Consumer Confidence for 2006 and find something interesting.

12 data, 6 big movers, 6 reversals = 50/50 chance of winning either via straddle or beating the spike.

When actual is totally off the consensus, it moves strongly in one direction (with a possibility of a retrace before moving forward again).

But seeing how its 50/50, its very dangerous.

Whats your opinion?

Seems like the market is waiting for FOMC and GDP tommorrow and Im not even sure if GDP is the main risk factor or FOMC.

actual number was in line with consensus... no surprises, no movements.

My thinking is there wont be any big (50p) or sustained moves around these fundys, all eyes on Wed IRS.

boycie

Expect the unexpected with tomorrows rate announcement. Perhaps a.25 cut will get the volatility moving.

May even be waiting for non farm on friday??? thoughts???