Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Shorted @ 33528, we have resistence at around this level. Expecting good pullback down to previous days open

my big resistance is 3423 and 3443...

welcome back by the way....

H1 gbp usd bull flag / measured move - projected target is 3400.

Yeah. I'd start shorting near 3400 next week.

Thanks man! ))) Good to see you!

I'm not big into fundies in forex/stocks, but I figure the Dubai trader is onto it. The higher they drive the price now the bigger the dump. Cable not stable yet, sub-3200 is still possible.

Seemed market turned upwards around my original TP......and turned back down after a triple top....

NA sessions have better volatility lately.....

GBP/USD is battling to get through the H4 resistance zone. No position, will monitor price action next week. US Senate votes on tax reform next week.

Yeah I agree with you overall strong uptrend, looks like accumulation is that wide range (3000-3300). I figure there will be one more pullback, but looks like we are set to fly and hit 3600 initially and 3900 is also an option later on.

that's more relevant to EURUSD due to DXY composition, GU can be as strong if not stronger than DXY at the same time. Having said that, yeah, if there is broad-based DXY strength, cable can also pullback somewhat. Though I just don't see it giving up the overall strong uptrend.

For GU strength show, check out GBP CHF monthly. 1.2000 is a strong DB it ain't going below this level.

good levels but there is heavy supply @ 3400 and it's also 618 of the big mid sept - early oct swing.

Overall a very nice breakout of the range but a throwback is in order soon.

are you talking about me when you said DUBAI TRADER?

First it was USD weakness which got us above 1.3300 level, and second look at EURUSD and GBPUSD boht charts at same time, you will get the general idea why EUR is up 100 pips Friday and Pound 20 pips..
that is how much people are scared to buy Pound at this time..
Eur was flying on Friday, but Pound was in range,
Let me explain how you could see which Currency is Getting Stronger..
Lets look at the Cross pairs..
compare those
EURNZD vs GBPNZD
EURAUD vs GBPAUD
EURCAD vs GBPCAD
EURJPY vs GBPJPY
look at them and you will know if the Pound is actually Getting stronger or not..

Cable is not Stable and will not be until The Brexit is Over,
and remember Divorce is a Divorce no matter what the conditions are it will never be same again, correct me if i am wrong,
and about Pound People who are talking about 1.3600 and 1.3900 its not going to happen any time soon,
i am selling because i have Facts in hand,
1: Brexit talks didn't move forward, after 8 months and IF and WHEN they do, will they go MAY's way?
2: Irish Border Issue needs to be resolved and its a big Issue,
3: EU demanding 60BLN, which is very high price but even if May Agree to that its just Money,
4: what about 3 Million Immigrants from Europe Living in UK?
5: Free Market " Never Going to Happen, Remember its Divorce. not a separation like in Marriage"
6: look at Technical Levels 1.3350-1.3370 is the resistance and Weekly close is 1.3320-30 doesn't look like to me a BUY here.
ok USD might get weaker a little more but who is to say the Pound will not be weak at same time??
so if you are looking to BUY be Careful..
7: First do your Home work, and Trust my Analysis and Guts also, because some time you need them to Trigger the Sell..
i am not saying who ever is Buying they are wrong, Sellers need them because if i am selling some one has to buy, that's Basically Trading.
.
Just my 2 Cents..
Good Luck Guys..

Good summary Dubai trader, I do appreciate your detailed review. One thing to note is that you covered fundies mostly. 90% of my trades are based on techs, cause price is king and whatever fundies are present out there they are already reflected in the chart, that''s my take anyway.

Here's recent H4 GU price chart. This is called accumulation. Now this is a smaller accumulation within the larger accumulation on daily/weekly.
Pound is under accumulation and money managers are bullish in this market. The options flow is skewed towards puts, but this don't mean much as this is mostly hedging of the spot positions, I've seen this before multiple times both in forex and stocks.

Valid targets for this accumulation are 3600 initially and 3900 but this probably will take more time. (6-8 weeks)

I see a throwback back into range after we print near 3400 this coming week but the throwback is actually a sign of strength not weakness. )))

Similar pattern (accumulation) is very obvious in EURUSD chart as well.

As always, trade your plan, but just don't get caught off-guard by the sudden spike in spot GBPUSD. )))

Lots of traders in WTI/Brent got used to short selling all the rips last few years. However, many got caught off-guard by this unexpected break-out. No more rips to short sell now. ))) Just saying. Shorting cable could become dangerous soon.

Some good words here from asgcorp in particular "Price is king'

It does not matter in the slightest what other pairs are doing (unless you are trading them) or any and all fundamentals, the chart does not lie.

Winging it with the "I think" mentality is a very dangerous game to play. Sure the price may turn and start heading south so that is the time we trade it accordingly.

To keep selling when price action is long is just one big gamble.

If price FINDS support to go long, then go long period.
If price FINDS support to go short, then go short period.

The distance it is going to go depends on the prior support which becomes a resistance level to be overcome or not.

At the same time price is always trying to break a previous average High or Low so we have a pretty good idea if a resistance is going to be overcome.

Trading is simple people make it complicated.

Cable on a wind up

GBPUSD
========
-We still favor the bearish structure.
-The rally Friday reached the upper bound of the parallel channel and 50% retracement.
-Market condition extreme overbought.
-As long as the market stay below 1.3425(closing basis), it is expected to resume downward toward 1.2800 as initial target then lower.
-Above 1.3425 (closing basis) will abort the bearish scenario and open window for a rally 1.3660-1.3760.



https://twitter.com/ADFINANCIALCORP/status/934555286953693184

There is no such thing as overbought or oversold... Look between Sept and Oct was that overbought too.

Only when the bears find support and start taking out the bull supports should we then be thinking short. In other words we need evidence and trade it accordingly.

Hi,

As you can see on the charts, the red horizontal line of 50% (Intitial Balance for Friday) is already upper than the current month's IB (red arrows) and Friday's close price is upper then 0% (red level). It is bullish for sure.

Next Friday is of great significance, it is NFP's friday. So, Monday and Tuesday give us the new month's (December) IB. However, for now it is hard to say how price is about to behave next month (we need to see the expanded IB), but I believe that the price will hit the 34100-34500 area at least (it might be tested before NFP).

Best
D.P.

Though the daily chart doesn't do much for me, it is far too long winded.

I can see the bulls have so far found support and if this holds then they may make a new HH average since the bears have failed to make a LL one again.

Should this be the case then the next obvious test is for the price HH but this may be weeks away and a lot of ups and downs will present themselves during this time.