Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Gbp/Usd opens the week with bearish gap, support can be found at 1.3037, I'm expecting further decline if breaks below it.

as i mentioned 1.3120 first target hit. +70 pips
now i will wait for 1.3200 to sell again or maybe even higher.
but i am not selling at the moment..
there is a gap honestly i don't care much about gap but this week we have bundle of news which might spike the pound higher then i will sell.

Brexit is Forever... Don't you forget that..


In the UK, the EU threw a monkey wrench into the Brexit talks by demanding no hard border between
the UK and Northern Ireland, something the UK can’t accept and was putting off thinking about. There
is a whiff of a suggestion that N. Ireland instigated the demand at this time, since it loses influence once
the talks move on to trade.
Also in the UK, industrial production surprised—shocked—on the upside, up 2.5% y/y in Sept for the
4
th month of increases and better than all forecasts. On the monthly basis, output is up 0.7% from 0.3%
the month before ,revised from 0.2%. On the q/q basis, output is up 1.1%. Separately, the trade balance
was less bad than forecast, a deficit of £11.253 billion vs. a forecast of £12.8 billion. The month before
was revised down from £14.25 to £12.35 billion. We say this doesn’t pass the “So what?” test. Fundamentals
rise and fall but Brexit is forever.

i always warn that it’s dangerous to buy into a dollar rally, even when it proves itself
technically as we saw last fall and again most recently in October. Similarly, a euro rally is
easy to understand even when conditions seem cloudy or outright negative. These are longstanding
sentiment biases and we often see analysts twist the news and torture the data to fit the sentiment
narrative.
Or maybe we just don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes. After all, the big-trade moves that set
off rallies and routs are secret. They are formed by professional traders at only a few big banks and managers,
perhaps twenty in all. Even if the number is fifty, it’s a small number in the face of a $5 trillion
per day market. And those guys are not talking. We do know they front-run customer orders, an unavoidable
outcome given the stunning speed of the market, exacerbating a move. They also have access
to information about capital flows and other influences to help them create an informed guess about upcoming
FX price moves.
The sovereign wealth fund of Norway is not happy about this market method. Bloomberg reports that a paper published last week advocates a change in market functioning to make the playing field more even
between both sides of a trade. As things stand now, the traders have an information advantage. Gee, no
kidding.
The fund warns of the risk of “significant informational asymmetries between dealers and clients.” And
“While existing practices help dealers avoid price risks and contribute to liquidity, ‘they can also lead
to excess intermediation profits and inefficient price discovery,’ the fund said.” This market is less regulated
than, say, fixed income, and could use “greater transparency and verifiability.” Lots of luck with
that. The implication is that traders should disclose contractually confidential information (“Fund XYZ
is re-allocating from euros to yen”) to other clients who also have contractual confidentiality. Dressing
it up as anything else is still putting lipstick on a pig.
For some reason, Bloomberg chose to include a chart of FX volatility with this article about the Norwegian
sovereign fund, but never explains why. From our point of view, declining volatility shows that we
are getting more rangey, sideways moves and fewer clearly defined trends—or trends are more shortlived.
the professionals are making it harder for the little guy to get on board a trend band-wagon and
make a few shekels. Let’s face it—they hate us. They hunt our stops and turn on a dime just to be
mean, hence irrational spikes (as we saw in the Swiss franc couple of days ago).
To return to fundamentals, in the UK, an op-ed in the FT by Philip Stephens is a stunning expose of
what is actually happening with Brexit. He writes the UK is “in the clasp of an inexplicable fever. Renowned
for solidity and pragmatism, the Brits have fallen to rage and resentment. Carefully judged self
-interest has surrendered to dangerous dogmatism.

“… government and parliament have lost control. A majority of MPs think Brexit is a mistake but feel
obliged to pursue it lest they be accused of defying what the tabloids declare to be ‘the will of the people’.
(that could Change)
This is what happens when the subtle checks and balances of representative democracy are subordinated
to the crude majoritarianism of referendums. Germans, ever mindful of what happened in the
1930s, understand this. Brexit represents the biggest upheaval since 1945 in Britain’s political and economic
life — an enterprise of enormous complexity and consequence. It is all-consuming. Yet the project
is being steered, if that is the right word, by an administration drained of political authority by a
misjudged election and by a Conservative party at war with itself.

“Theresa May’s premiership is shaped above all by her weakness. She is openly defied by her own
ministers and held hostage to the mendacity and ambition of Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary. The
Tories are as divided as ever about Britain’s relationship with its continent. Everyone backs Brexit, or
so they pretend. They cannot agree on what it means. You could say that the party has been here before.
During the 19th century it was broken by the Corn Laws and in the early 20th by an argument
about imperial trading preferences. This time, though, Britain’s travails run deeper than Tory infighting.
“Steeped in anti-Americanism and an apologist for Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Jeremy Corbyn’s outlook
was fixed during the 1970s. Tory Brexiters see the EU as an affront to Britain’s imperial past. Mr Corbyn
hails from a small far left sect that views Brussels as a capitalist plot. Political opportunism
prompts him to disrupt the government’s Brexit negotiations; his real goal is to force an election and
declare socialism in one country. What used to be called the British establishment looks on with awful
bewilderment.

“Mrs May could make it worse Brexit deadlock could be a catalyst for another election. Mr
Corbyn might win. There is a majority in parliament for what could be called soft Brexit, but it is
locked up within the two main parties. There is no majority for any outcome amenable to Messrs Johnson
and Gove. The EU27 are not about to offer Britain an agreement tailored to the competing factions
in the Tory party. Mrs May’s talk of a bespoke arrangement to preserve the advantages of the single
market while shedding the responsibilities is greeted elsewhere with unalloyed scorn.
“The last hope is that there is a hidden irony in all this: that the political chaos wrought by the referendum
is the only thing that could stop Brexit happening.” In other words, Brexit should be stopped and
the UK should agree to rejoin the EU.

Bingo long flip now for me just keeping 1 out of the 3 trades on a run short hedge type of play

It's a market. Just because they are not in it does not give them the right to change the rules. Of course it does not seem fair. No market does to an outsider. As participators, the big customers give banks a chance to give them a good deal. If they do not get a good deal it is fairly clear even to relatively uninformed accountants, given hindsight. They have the chance to move accounts if they wish.

big move up to resistance

testing my recording skill GU scalp

Hi,

Last time I wrote that price might have come to the level of 32350 for it to close the daily hidden gap of up to 32400. But the price was not able to have risen. The price just worked out the 4H hidden gap, then it was rejected, fell down to the level of 31600 and entered into the Month initial balance (IB) again (at the level of 100%). It was the last week (green).

The current week IB (red). As you can see at the picture, today the price have not broken through the lower boundary (100%) of the current week IB. The price seems to be being consolidated, being lower than 50% of the current IB - what means the price can go upper soon. Also you can see the current week IB is higher then the last week IB (...still, but we have yet Tomorrow's price chance for IB to be expanded down, sorry I thought it is Monday today, but it is already Tuesday ), what confirms this fact.

Anyway I am still bearish and suppose two scenarios to act.

1/ The price will be rejected and go lower (red arrows).
2/ The price will reach the 32400-32500 area, what gives us understanding the bulls are in control. I sat up my stop at the 33300 level in case of the price changes its mind for going lower.

Best
D.P.

31 weeks trading above the average is a good clue

Or of we look from the monthly perspective... we get 38 months trading below the average.

By looking at the higher time frame charts we also have to take the higher risks involved which then has the effect of reducing our lot size to compensate.

Time is money in this business and if we have to wait many months to extract the same profit as we could do in a matter of hours then we loose a great deal of efficiency. We increase our efficiency by dropping to lower time frames, increasing our lot size, limit our risk and expect to be paid only what the market is willing to give or a regular and frequent basis.

The number of pips has no bearing whatsoever on a trade, it is the value we place on the pip that counts. 20 pips for one person can equate to 200 pips for another person the difference is the time it takes.

Speculation about where price may or may not be in the future is fine but the draw-downs have to be considered in the equation.

Here below I see we have bear support on the 5 min and we appear to be heading for the average on the hour. Entry is made with a 10 pip stop and the target is achieved in 145 minutes. I don't care what happens for the rest of the day unless I see another setup I may take.

Sure I could have been wrong and price could have turned on me but I find from long experience the cable market will probably yield 20 pips.

I think, nay I know, that if traders trade what they see happening NOW rather than speculate on what may happen, they will be far better off.

Don't try to outsmart the market, just go with it.

Simple questions we should ask....

1) Are we trading above or below the average.
2) Have the Bulls or Bears found support for the move.
3) Does it look like a reasonable probability the number of pips can be had.

Rinse and repeat over and over and expect to get it wrong sometimes.

ENuff said or what

For those following this I have just reproduced the trade at the 1 min chart below.

Apart from the 1st entry based on the bull support the following entries are made when the fast RSI is below but the slow RSI is above the waterline.

To me price appears to be running for the 1 hour target