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Trading Made Simple

  • #83,321
  • Nov 10, 2017 8:53am Nov 10, 2017 8:53am
Quoting samanfx
{quote} Holiday and Tactical Withdrawal are very different. It is like the difference between pedophilia and philadelphia. {quote}
lol those two words are not even close to compare, just because they seem similar
  • #83,322
  • Nov 10, 2017 12:02pm Nov 10, 2017 12:02pm
Emmanuel, it would be nice to know your opinion about this possible invalidation signal.

This week I've been selling EURNZD because is clearly in a downtrend. But today, it seems, is about to reverse the trend.

TDI is below 50 and is very close to generating a buy signal (Price is also very close to the PAC and 5 MM). With 3 positions opened, the weekend, and a more than probably buy signal, I think is better to take a small loss.

Moreover, I have the 4th position filled in my GBPUSD basket, and my intention is to keep this basket open, expecting a breakeven close, next week.
So for me, there is no sense to let two baskets open, and I've decided to close the one I see, as most dangerous.

Anyway, I must say, I have tempted, to keep both open, because TDI 4h is very close to 68.

Tomorrow I will post my report for this week, and the trading plan for the next.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD 10.11.17.png Size: 137 KB
  • #83,323
  • Nov 10, 2017 12:13pm Nov 10, 2017 12:13pm
Hi TMS Folks,

12 hours of in-flight entertainment is very exhausting. Needed some sleep to get over the time zones changed.

I see quite many PMs over the pat 24 hours and I will answer these first.

But before I forget, after taking a look at all 28 pairs, I see quite a few many pairs on the D1 charts. Remember what Big E said in this post below:

Quoting eelfranz
I'm going to do a test on the Daily charts. When green crosses red I'll stay in until green crosses red again. I'll report the results in a week or so... I'll only enter if the candles are medium length or larger... wish me luck ...
We started out this year trading the D1 charts for those having day jobs and and want to trade once a day. You should have done quite many trades and should by now know how many trade opportunities so far. It is near year end so you can share your trading statistics in next month.
Also remember, from Dec 18 week, the D1 candles will get even smaller therefore during those festive holidays period, we can at best trade H1 intraday. But I rather spend my time enjoying the holidays and be jolly.


Do Not overtrade when you are trading with real money in live market. If you are forward testing with demo money, then its okay but you have to know yourself if you develop bad trading behaviour and habits doing too much demom money trading.

Have fun trading and enjoy the journey.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,324
  • Nov 10, 2017 12:34pm Nov 10, 2017 12:34pm
Quoting Jordi
Emmanuel, it would be nice to know your opinion about this possible invalidation signal. This week I've been selling EURNZD because is clearly in a downtrend. But today, it seems, is about to reverse the trend. TDI is below 50 and is very close to generating a buy signal (Price is also very close to the PAC and 5 MM). With 3 positions opened, the weekend, and a more than probably buy signal, I think is better to take a small loss. Moreover, I have the 4th position filled in my GBPUSD basket, and my intention is to keep this basket open, expecting...

EURNZD Week 45 review

One of my favourite pairs aong the Euro crosses. Good weekly swing range 320 to 350 pips per week average.
I don't have any open trades in this pairs so I am not bias.

But looking at the MN and W1, it is still bullish but D1 is trading in a range, so it is possible to either sell or buy and be vigilant and not be caught in the wrong side when it breaks out. Look at W1 carefully.

If we started sell early this week, my technical stop loss would be above the 2 weeks high.

On D1 chart, following Big E D1 chart trading rules, the trade invalidation would be to use the TDI cross up for current sell.
I prefer to use the HA candle colour change for exit looking at it now, because the 'trend' is UP.

As the trader, we have to make tough decisions and we must think fast on our feet.

BTW, its Friday and EZ has seen a new high 2017 and quite close the highs of 2015 and 2013. We dont have many weeks till year end.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD Week 45 Nov 10.png Size: 62 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,325
  • Nov 10, 2017 12:44pm Nov 10, 2017 12:44pm
EURNZD 2018

Just took a new look at this moment
Watch those levels ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD BPP 2018.png Size: 64 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,326
  • Nov 10, 2017 12:49pm Nov 10, 2017 12:49pm
OFF TOPIC from normal trading but is is my hobby what I do with my money... save our planet.

Te Timatanga Earthship - New Zealand

Inserted Video
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,327
  • Nov 10, 2017 1:06pm Nov 10, 2017 1:06pm
EURCAD Week 45 Nov 10

Again this pair is narrow range trading on D1 chart.
If you trade the smaller TF M15, you can possibly buy and sell in that small range.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD Week 45 W1 view.png Size: 65 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD Week 45 D1 chart MN CLine.png Size: 65 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,328
  • Nov 10, 2017 1:39pm Nov 10, 2017 1:39pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi TMS Folks, 12 hours of in-flight entertainment is very exhausting. Needed some sleep to get over the time zones changed. I see quite many PMs over the pat 24 hours and I will answer these first. But before I forget, after taking a look at all 28 pairs, I see quite a few many pairs on the D1 charts. Remember what Big E said in this post below: {quote} We started out this year trading the D1 charts for those having day jobs and and want to trade once a day. You should have done quite many trades and should by now know how many trade opportunities...
Hi Emmanuel - regarding Big E's quote below, have you any idea what the outcome was?

Quoting eelfranz
I'm going to do a test on the Daily charts. When green crosses red I'll stay in until green crosses red again. I'll report the results in a week or so... I'll only enter if the candles are medium length or larger... wish me luck ...
  • #83,329
  • Nov 10, 2017 1:50pm Nov 10, 2017 1:50pm
Quoting Tanglewood
{quote} Hi Emmanuel - regarding Big E's quote below, have you any idea what the outcome was? Quoting eelfranz I'm going to do a test on the Daily charts. When green crosses red I'll stay in until green crosses red again. I'll report the results in a week or so... I'll only enter if the candles are medium length or larger... wish me luck ...
Big E did not post his test results.

We did some test back in 2013 and the results on D1 is better than H4.

Use this EA by SteveHopwood and run the backtests and observe the 'trades entry and exit' while running the strategy tester.
Set the data period to 10 years at least and count the number of trades and see the trades distribution over the months.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=292301

For those members who can program in mql4, use that EA and modify that for back-testing only and not for live trading with real hardearned money.

Note that this EA can only do single entry trades and not multiple entries.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,330
  • Nov 10, 2017 1:58pm Nov 10, 2017 1:58pm
About backtesting:

It takes a lot of time running the MT4 strategy tester and when you run backtesting using 10 years price data, it can take several days to complete the test very thoroughly.

So I suggest you all in smaller groups and work together in collaboration and do the programming work and run backtesting for as many pairs as possible during the coming year end holidays and share your test results in your small groups.
Do this as part of your system development activity, this is very important and is one way to find out which pairs you want to trade in your business trade plan.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,331
  • Nov 10, 2017 2:07pm Nov 10, 2017 2:07pm
The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

read this when you have the time.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=347075

the lifespan of 'trading systems' ... about 2 years on average.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,332
  • Nov 10, 2017 2:25pm Nov 10, 2017 2:25pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Big E did not post his test results. We did some test back in 2013 and the results on D1 is better than H4. Use this EA by SteveHopwood and run the backtests and observe the 'trades entry and exit' while running the strategy tester. Set the data period to 10 years at least and count the number of trades and see the trades distribution over the months. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=292301 For those members who can program in mql4, use that EA and modify that for back-testing only and not for live trading with real...
Thanks for your prompt reply Emmanuel...
  • #83,333
  • Nov 11, 2017 6:46am Nov 11, 2017 6:46am
Here is my trade report. Above, closed trades. Below, open trades for next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: report week 6_10 Nov .png Size: 110 KB
  • #83,334
  • Edited 1:46pm Nov 11, 2017 10:40am | Edited 1:46pm
This week, has been a very quiet week, with no volatility, at least with my pairs. For next week, I have short positions open on GBPUSD and NZDCHF.

GBPUSD is the pair it worries me most. Last Friday it was a sell signal (TDI D1 + close below the PAC), this Friday we have an opposite signal, a buy ( TDI D1), but the price is inside the PAC. Also, the price is inside a WRC, inside a monthly IB, and inside a monthly master candle. In a nutshell, no clear trend for this pair.

My 4th position has been filled, so I'm going to go out of this trade with the first opportunity. There is a resistance level, before of my 5th position, and TDI (4h) is very close to 68, so I expect a sell signal soon ( there is already a sell signal in 1h), and go out of this trade at breakeven + 5 pips.

NZDCHF: I'm holding this position for two weeks now, and I still expect this is only a pullback. In my favour: TDI D1 is bearish now, and the weekly candle is an evening star.

EURUSD: My bias is bullish. ATR D1 100: 83

Monthly: After hit a resistance zone, price reversed. Two previous months were bearish, but we don't have a clear sell signal yet.

Weekly: Weekly trend is bearish, but it looks like the price can't break the support zone. Support zone is holding for three weeks now, and the last week, closed higher, than the previous one.

Daily: Bullish signal on TDI D1, and the Friday, the price has opened and closed, above the 5 MM (shift 3), also price has closed slightly above the PAC.
Besides all of this, because EURUSD and GBPUSD are highly correlated, I think that if I buy EURUSD I can cover possible losses if my full short position, on GBPUSD, is stopped next week.

For this reason, I'm thinking about the possibility to increase my risk assigned to this position, from the normal 1%, to a 2%. What do you think about this idea?

EURAUD: My bias is bullish. ATR D1 100: 113

Monthly: Clearly bullish.

Weekly: Clearly bullish. But it looks like is forming some kind of triangle.

Daily: Bullish signal on TDI D1, and the Friday, the price has opened and closed, above the 5 MM (shift 3), also price has closed clearly above the PAC.

Anyway, there is a couple of things to consider:

1- On daily, every time price broke the previous highs, it reversed thereafter.
2- It looks like is forming some kind of triangle, maybe an ending diagonal.

For those reasons, I'm going to buy this pair next week, but watching very closely the price action at the previous highs.
I can not find more uncorrelated currency pairs, with clear signals. I will add more pairs, next week, if I see some opportunity.

PS: I think markets are weirdly quiet. Is like they are waiting for something to happen.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11.11.17 GBPUSDDaily.png Size: 214 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCHFDaily 11.11.17.png Size: 129 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 11.11.17 EURUSD .png Size: 177 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 11.11.17 EURAUD .png Size: 172 KB
  • #83,335
  • Nov 11, 2017 11:21am Nov 11, 2017 11:21am
Quote
in another scenario, when you have 3 open positions, you must try close 2 at breakeven at every opportunity possible and the 3rd position is left to run with the minimum profit lock and exit when the TDI reversal cross either using M15 or M5 ...(this is the little lotto)

Hello Emmanuel, this means that in the case of > 3 open positions in a basket, the profit lock, (where we trail the stop loss), would be the breakeven price of the open positions except the last one? Or the profit lock price remains the same (eg 0.5ADR) from the last positition left open?

Quote
this means when the price pulls back after the minimum profit locked, you exit both positions to take the money.
This means that the price must exceed the minimum profit level and pulls back. However, this can happen with a different frequency depending on the timeframe (In 1 minute chart the bars could close beyond the profit lock price several times, in one hour the bars could not close beyond the profit lock price). When do you talk about profit lock and trail stop loss at what time frame do you refer? 5-15 minutes?

Thank you
  • #83,336
  • Nov 11, 2017 11:49am Nov 11, 2017 11:49am
Hi, Emmanuel:
Hope you enjoy your vacation!
Can I ask you something:
Is there such an indicator/tool, which, if I attach it to a chart, will show pictures of TDI of every pair that I choose to monitor for that timeframe, and if I switch to another timeframe it will do so for that timeframe as well (one timeframe, all pairs)? This way I can check all TDIs on one chart instead of flicking through 40+charts.
I’ve seen ‘pipware charts’ indicator but I don’t think it will do the exact job for me (at least I don’t know how). And the ‘tms monitor’ only has ‘slope values’ which aren’t visual enough for me.
As always, thank you for your time and help here on FF!
Shuo
  • #83,337
  • Nov 11, 2017 2:50pm Nov 11, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
The life of a trading system on Forex Factory read this when you have the time. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=347075 the lifespan of 'trading systems' ... about 2 years on average.

So why not open your own thread? This one is sucessfully killed by you. A moment, right you dont care about others, disrespect everyone and a thread lead by you will show how you are confusing different systems for promoting. Here you dont have to take on responsibility.


You must be a very cheap person according to your signature.
Newbies be warned of emmanuel7788. Hes not true.
  • #83,338
  • Nov 12, 2017 5:02am Nov 12, 2017 5:02am
Quoting Malony
{quote} So why not open your own thread? This one is sucessfully killed by you. A moment, right you dont care about others, disrespect everyone and a thread lead by you will show how you are confusing different systems for promoting. Here you dont have to take on responsibility. You must be a very cheap person according to your signature.
I agree he have sugested to us strat he was nothing more then 2 moving average trader, to return from milloner to FF to teach ppl for free is mindblowing..... look's like who want to be promoted write to him for advirtsment.... anyway at last these is the system and without understanding the analize is just a game 3 steps up 2 steps down, 4 step up 5 down.....
  • #83,339
  • Nov 12, 2017 5:05am Nov 12, 2017 5:05am
New Thread reply again:

<...>
My new thread already started. If you did not get my invitation to my new thread, then you are not up to the level of those members who are in there trading and testing new trading tools.Loaded up 60% of my content the past weeks after my June vacation. It is not here in ForexFactory, too bad to all the folks who waited and expecting it here. Read all the shit going on here in FF forums, its not worth my time and effort to share here therefore I chose to use a CUG type forum.
Current FF is open to public and does not support members to operate their own CUG... too bad.

TMS is the 5-Method. It has matured and will not change. The method cannot be derailed. Its all here in Big E' posts. How you trade with it is your own business.

The new thread is meant for further TMS development and is not here in Forex Factory. It belongs in a forum CUG for those who aspire to become super traders. These traders are committed to spend 3 to 5 hours everyday for the next 2 to 3 years.

For you all following this TMS thread, try read all the posts from 2013 and also look in the attachments for some good stuff shared here.

or you can also support jmn5611 in his thread created for you.

here : https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=494420


<...>

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post10208231

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post10204593

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post10174408

Good luck folks.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,340
  • Nov 12, 2017 5:18am Nov 12, 2017 5:18am
Quoting zhangshuo
Hi, Emmanuel: Hope you enjoy your vacation! Can I ask you something: Is there such an indicator/tool, which, if I attach it to a chart, will show pictures of TDI of every pair that I choose to monitor for that timeframe, and if I switch to another timeframe it will do so for that timeframe as well (one timeframe, all pairs)? This way I can check all TDIs on one chart instead of flicking through 40+charts. I’ve seen ‘pipware charts’ indicator but I don’t think it will do the exact job for me (at least I don’t know how). And the ‘tms monitor’ only...
Hi zhangshuo,

vacation is always great. I work hard only 8 out of 12 months a year and that means I have 2 long vacations a year. I have plenty I can do during my vacation time but I want to have more time in 2020 to enjoy the seas.
My plan is to do this more often in 2020.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Yacht2.png Size: 917 KB


Back to your question.
To do what you want is quite easy with the new MT4 features. But then, to look at TDI green angles/slope for all 40+ pairs is an overkill.
Do you really need to check the TDI for 40+ pairs? which timeframe do you want to trade doing that?

That TMS Monitor works well and serve it intended purpose and the /slope threshold is there for you to use for alert only and not as trade signal.

The pipware mini-charts by stratman also is very good tool to use when we want to see all timeframes on one single chart... and the Power of Timeframes (strat's THE PATH).
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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