I became a member of the forum 7 years ago. As a beginner I spent most of the first 2 years studying various trading systems posted here, using some of them on demo accounts and (unfortunately) a few on my live account. Eventually I created two of my own which I still use with little modifications up to this day. However, the old hobby is not dead. I still test almost everything. Occasionally I find a new idea, an interesting indicator, even a good system that can be made profitable with some adjustments.
But the really fun part is to follow what happens to such systems over the months and years that follow the initial post. They have a life of their own and seem to follow the same path, over and over again. Hundreds of systems, thousands upon thousands of posters and posts … and nothing ever changes. To me their evolution is now more than predictable and I’m sure there are many others who have noticed the same patterns.
1. Here’s my holy grail! The OP tells us a bit about himself, the rules of the system, some charts carefully chosen with entries/exits that worked great. He informs us that he’s been very successful using the system.
2. The fan club is created! The first people who post are those who have a few winning trades using the rules originally posted. They become groupies and whatever happens in the future they will defend the system even when it’s obviously failing miserably.
3. The newbies are here! People who know virtually nothing about trading, Metatrader or indicators start asking questions such as “where do I put the mq4 and tpl files?” … “how many lots should I enter?” … “what time is it here in <insert place> when London opens?” … “does this work without a stop loss?” and so on.
4. You’re a legend Sir! Following the beautiful charts with a bunch of winning trades and the very wise answers given to the questions asked by the army of beginners the OP gains the unofficial title of super-trader. The number of posts grows exponentially. Everybody is happy, doubling the account is around the corner, and from there it’s just a matter of months until making it to Forbes.
5. We need more indicators! Market conditions change and the system loses money a few days in a row. Clearly it has to be adjusted. How? By adding more indicators to filter out the bad trades. It’s very easy, isn’t it? Just add something that would have kept one out of the last losing trade. It doesn’t matter that the very same filter would also prevent one from taking many of the trades that turned out to be winners. Nobody bothers to backtest this. So … let’s add the stochastic … the 200 EMA … examine the higher time frame … check the daily range … put the Renko bars to smooth it … the TDI works best … I would add the Bollinger bands …
6. The systemS are here! Since everybody is now euphorically adding indicators and rules we no longer have one system. We have anywhere from 3 to 10 versions of the system, some of which having in fact very little in common with the original rules.
7. Chaos reigns supreme! With all those new additions and people posting like crazy charts and results using different setups nobody knows exactly what’s going on. The thread is full of requests like “can anyone point me to the latest official version of the system?”
8. We need them robots! Now that we know how great the system is it’s time to ask some great coders to make an EA. Which version of the rules should he use? We can try a few … maybe one will work.
9. Nah … dem robotz no good! The EA is losing because we humans can see and feel things about trading … it comes with experience. So let’s forget EA results, forget backtesting, and let’s just trust the thousands of pips reported by the groupies. The system must be good, no doubt!
10. It’s just that little thing left to do! After a while, noticing that a large number of people posting in the thread get mixed or even bad results, someone has an epiphany. All we need to make the system really great is an indicator or something to tell us if the market is trending or ranging. But not yesterday or last week or last hour. What is it GOING to do next?
11. It works for me! So we are left with the OP and his early followers claiming that the system works beautifully, they all make thousands of pips each week. We have a few others who claim that it’s losing big time and others get so-so results. And the vast majority still keeps trying to find that extra indicator that will make the system perfect.
12. There’s a new kid in town! A few months later most people left the building. Even the OP most of the times. Nobody knows why. Have they become so incredibly rich that posting on FF is no longer interesting? Or maybe the system is not so good after all? But hey … who cares? Did you see that new system? That one is really great!
But the really fun part is to follow what happens to such systems over the months and years that follow the initial post. They have a life of their own and seem to follow the same path, over and over again. Hundreds of systems, thousands upon thousands of posters and posts … and nothing ever changes. To me their evolution is now more than predictable and I’m sure there are many others who have noticed the same patterns.
1. Here’s my holy grail! The OP tells us a bit about himself, the rules of the system, some charts carefully chosen with entries/exits that worked great. He informs us that he’s been very successful using the system.
2. The fan club is created! The first people who post are those who have a few winning trades using the rules originally posted. They become groupies and whatever happens in the future they will defend the system even when it’s obviously failing miserably.
3. The newbies are here! People who know virtually nothing about trading, Metatrader or indicators start asking questions such as “where do I put the mq4 and tpl files?” … “how many lots should I enter?” … “what time is it here in <insert place> when London opens?” … “does this work without a stop loss?” and so on.
4. You’re a legend Sir! Following the beautiful charts with a bunch of winning trades and the very wise answers given to the questions asked by the army of beginners the OP gains the unofficial title of super-trader. The number of posts grows exponentially. Everybody is happy, doubling the account is around the corner, and from there it’s just a matter of months until making it to Forbes.
5. We need more indicators! Market conditions change and the system loses money a few days in a row. Clearly it has to be adjusted. How? By adding more indicators to filter out the bad trades. It’s very easy, isn’t it? Just add something that would have kept one out of the last losing trade. It doesn’t matter that the very same filter would also prevent one from taking many of the trades that turned out to be winners. Nobody bothers to backtest this. So … let’s add the stochastic … the 200 EMA … examine the higher time frame … check the daily range … put the Renko bars to smooth it … the TDI works best … I would add the Bollinger bands …
6. The systemS are here! Since everybody is now euphorically adding indicators and rules we no longer have one system. We have anywhere from 3 to 10 versions of the system, some of which having in fact very little in common with the original rules.
7. Chaos reigns supreme! With all those new additions and people posting like crazy charts and results using different setups nobody knows exactly what’s going on. The thread is full of requests like “can anyone point me to the latest official version of the system?”
8. We need them robots! Now that we know how great the system is it’s time to ask some great coders to make an EA. Which version of the rules should he use? We can try a few … maybe one will work.
9. Nah … dem robotz no good! The EA is losing because we humans can see and feel things about trading … it comes with experience. So let’s forget EA results, forget backtesting, and let’s just trust the thousands of pips reported by the groupies. The system must be good, no doubt!
10. It’s just that little thing left to do! After a while, noticing that a large number of people posting in the thread get mixed or even bad results, someone has an epiphany. All we need to make the system really great is an indicator or something to tell us if the market is trending or ranging. But not yesterday or last week or last hour. What is it GOING to do next?
11. It works for me! So we are left with the OP and his early followers claiming that the system works beautifully, they all make thousands of pips each week. We have a few others who claim that it’s losing big time and others get so-so results. And the vast majority still keeps trying to find that extra indicator that will make the system perfect.
12. There’s a new kid in town! A few months later most people left the building. Even the OP most of the times. Nobody knows why. Have they become so incredibly rich that posting on FF is no longer interesting? Or maybe the system is not so good after all? But hey … who cares? Did you see that new system? That one is really great!
