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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #455,341
  • Oct 8, 2017 7:08am Oct 8, 2017 7:08am
I don't see $ as bearish now for some time
the best for cable is hold its space
the $ has not break bearish free at all
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  • #455,342
  • Edited 7:52am Oct 8, 2017 7:32am | Edited 7:52am
Attachment g
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  • #455,343
  • Oct 8, 2017 8:39am Oct 8, 2017 8:39am
EU is more bearish than GU on a Q chart ,but has respected a major pivot lines up with tl ,
-like GBP AUD
I'm not budging despite the political risks looming eur gbp will free fall when it hits the sell zone
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  • #455,344
  • Oct 8, 2017 8:39am Oct 8, 2017 8:39am
I believe the Cable is heading lower, with the USD being bullish. I might be terribly wrong however.
  • #455,345
  • Oct 8, 2017 8:57am Oct 8, 2017 8:57am
Quoting MoneyFocus
I believe the Cable is heading lower, with the USD being bullish. I might be terribly wrong however.
The market is a little nutty right now with the hurricanes..spain..brexit..etc. however those at the kinds of things I try to fade out.. politics don't get very well involved in my fundamental analysis and I do think that despite everyone's certainly on a December hike for the dollar..there is closer to a 50/50 on it.. also..brexit, Europe problems, and May are casting a heavy shadow over GU but the British economy is showing signs of excellent growth and rising inflation, making the November hike far more certain. This being said.. rate hikes often are short short lived rallies that truly, don't change the overall economic situation of a country. Mid and long term fundamentals suggest gu head further north to me. And while brexit could have temporary issues..the markets continued reaction to its headlines is far over done. My 2 cents. Also could be utterly wrong. But the thing that has made me money in forex outside of a trading plan is not paying attention to any media headlines..finding my own research..and ultimately watching 10 people say "the market is heading this way" and maintaining a skeptical attitude toward it because 9/10 of those trader will lose money over time.
  • #455,346
  • Oct 8, 2017 9:00am Oct 8, 2017 9:00am
Also. I see about 90% technical analysis here on FF and very little fundamental unless its spark by a media headline. To me it's all backward..fundamental should be..in any market..equities..currency..bonds..commodities..the backbone of the analysis...followed by technicals to find entries
  • #455,347
  • Oct 8, 2017 9:03am Oct 8, 2017 9:03am
this I think this will end with an upper wick looking at retrace right now
To change May right now would be a mistake,
probably she would weather it
I'm waiting for the bearish d1 or w1
and somehow below pivot zone to hold cable


Quoting Bones
next step depends on open outlook very firm valuable other information enclosed in one chart to others when clear price picture is supplied guess is sell it higher {image}
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  • #455,348
  • Oct 8, 2017 9:38am Oct 8, 2017 9:38am
It's a good point because as retail mostly you can only be reactionary
proactive fundamental thinkers are very rare within the retail market on FF anyway
like thinking through a whole picture both currencies of a pair
tbh there's no need to have any fundamental view at all other than running themes and NFP
whist after years of ignoring it
I'm trying to work on that but not headline by headline

cable is so unpredictable in recent times because it moved so political


Quoting Venomousssss
Also. I see about 90% technical analysis here on FF and very little fundamental unless its spark by a media headline. To me it's all backward..fundamental should be..in any market..equities..currency..bonds..commodities..the backbone of the analysis...followed by technicals to find entries
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #455,349
  • Oct 8, 2017 1:43pm Oct 8, 2017 1:43pm
GBP Open with big gap : 1.31xxx
Regard NOOR16
  • #455,350
  • Edited 2:22pm Oct 8, 2017 2:09pm | Edited 2:22pm
Quoting Venomousssss
{quote} The market is a little nutty right now with the hurricanes..spain..brexit..etc. however those at the kinds of things I try to fade out.. politics don't get very well involved in my fundamental analysis and I do think that despite everyone's certainly on a December hike for the dollar..there is closer to a 50/50 on it.. also..brexit, Europe problems, and May are casting a heavy shadow over GU but the British economy is showing signs of excellent growth and rising inflation, making the November hike far more certain. This being said.. rate...
There is a lot to think about with fundamentals
To be honest for me trading fundamentals is blows pure technicals out of the water.
For a start I don't have to stare at charts
At the moment the dollar is strong mainly because of the data coming out of the US.
Depending on the strength of the geopolitical news this will nearly always beat economic data.
Quite often economic releases will go in waves. So you might find over some months strong data and then it eases off. Look at the pound recently the dip really started around when there was an adjustment to GDP figures.
Obviously it's important to know what has been priced in
I do rate volume profile and pivot levels to help identify bank order levels
  • #455,351
  • Edited 2:41pm Oct 8, 2017 2:30pm | Edited 2:41pm
If you are tracking cable this week, you may consider this technical perspective.

Four weeks ago, price action on this pair entered the 50.0 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the high of June 2016 to the low of January 2017. Since then price action on the pair has commenced a bearish descent. Last week, a strong bearish candlestick broke below the monthly central pivot. With the technicals on the weekly time frame disposed southward, we may expect a bearish continuation to target the immediate support around the 1.28850 area; this may extend to a significant support around the 1.27115 area.

On the H4 time frame, price action has broken an inner support trendline (magenta colour) and heading towards a major support trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the daiy time frame. The last two sessions on Friday saw a bullish move to push price upward. Should the bulls succeed in this move, we may see a retracement to the immediate horizontal support around the 1.32000 area or a retest of the support trendline (magenta colour) turned resistance before price action heads southward with a potential, initial target being the major support trendline (chocolate colour), which may extend to the horizontal support around the 1.27115 area.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #455,352
  • Oct 8, 2017 3:20pm Oct 8, 2017 3:20pm
I am bearish on this pair and I will be interested in a sell trading opportunity should price action pull back into the 1.32000 area, specifically to within the zone between 1.31396 and 1.32116 (bound by saddlebrown coloured hprizontal lines) on the H4 chart.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
If you are tracking cable this week, you may consider this technical perspective. Four weeks ago, price action on this pair entered the 50.0 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the high of June 2016 to the low of January 2017. Since then price action on the pair has commenced a bearish descent. Last week, a strong bearish candlestick broke below the monthly central pivot. With the technicals on the weekly time frame disposed southward, we may expect a bearish continuation to target the immediate support around the 1.28850 area; this may extend...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #455,353
  • Edited 4:05pm Oct 8, 2017 3:54pm | Edited 4:05pm
lol I bet that GDP adjustment will be wrong , Your talking about the adjustment after the adjustment,
GBP data's been green
though last week mixed -still mainly in positive territory
if you can use fundamentals like you say give us the outlook?

Quoting Fader123
{quote} There is a lot to think about with fundamentals To be honest for me trading fundamentals is blows pure technicals out of the water. For a start I don't have to stare at charts At the moment the dollar is strong mainly because of the data coming out of the US. Depending on the strength of the geopolitical news this will nearly always beat economic data. Quite often economic releases will go in waves. So you might find over some months strong data and then it eases off. Look at the pound recently the dip really started around when there was...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #455,354
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:06pm Oct 8, 2017 4:06pm
To me fundamentals are like traffic lights on a highway. Green and the flow continues, red and there is a halt to the flow of traffic. The traffic will continue on to its ultimate destination no matter what the fundamentals are interpreted as. It is these destinations I am interested in and whether or not I can profit from the journey. If there is a lack of fundamental news then why does the market continue to flow? It is purely profit driven...

I know from long experience price is going to flow from Bearish support to Bullish support and vice versa and will always fail at some point to reach one of these objectives. Failure is just as important as success, both give us information we can use to our advantage.

To me the question becomes 'what is support?' and we can apply any amount of these because every single bar has bearish support at its top and bullish support at its bottom. So then do we move to clusters and take the swings as supports, many people in FF do this and there is nothing wrong with it but to me it is not defined enough. I mark my charts where price either bullish or bearish finds its initial support and this is remarkably accurate in locating later resistance. For proof one only has to look at this 4 hour snippet below...
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  • #455,355
  • Edited 4:28pm Oct 8, 2017 4:16pm | Edited 4:28pm
Quoting Bones
lol I bet that GDP adjustment will be wrong , Your talking about the adjustment after the adjustment, GBP data's been green though last week mixed -still in positive territory if you can use fundamentals like you say give us the outlook? {quote}
Just think what do - do hedge funds and investment banks and the top forex traders have in common
They all use fundamentals.
And it's about understanding sentiment
On GDP
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/cit...mmets-GDP-down
Getting back to your question it's late here and I will put something down this week.
  • #455,356
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:20pm Oct 8, 2017 4:20pm
Quoting MoneyFocus
I believe the Cable is heading lower, with the USD being bullish. I might be terribly wrong however.
Think it depends on the negs and whether May goes - lots of black swans atm
  • #455,357
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:21pm Oct 8, 2017 4:21pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Just think what do - do hedge funds and investment banks and the top forex traders have in common They all use fundamentals. And it's about understanding sentiment Getting back to your question it's late here and I will put something down this week.
Hi Fader - be interested to know your thoughts on current sentiment
  • #455,358
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:24pm Oct 8, 2017 4:24pm
Quoting Noor16
GBP Open with big gap : 1.31xxx
What made you think there would be a gap N
  • #455,359
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:39pm Oct 8, 2017 4:39pm
Quoting Boudica
{quote} What made you think there would be a gap N

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you can follow the over weekend rates live there.
  • #455,360
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:24pm Oct 8, 2017 5:24pm
Limited upward correction movements, Gbp/Usd short term is still holding above 1.3000 psychological threshold, only break below will lead to further decline.
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