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Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

  • #10,401
  • Edited 1:14am Sep 21, 2017 12:16am | Edited 1:14am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Got some nice sell into 75 area. Taken some targets of now but looking for follow through to down side. {image} {image}
Nice price action looking to break last buys.
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  • #10,402
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:01am Sep 21, 2017 3:01am
hi guys,

Gold: took this short from 1317 stops at breakeven. next level of interest is 1288 then 1277. lets see how much it gives.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1GozeiTR/
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  • #10,403
  • Sep 21, 2017 6:17am Sep 21, 2017 6:17am
Quoting ssaqeel
hi guys, Gold: took this short from 1317 stops at breakeven. next level of interest is 1288 then 1277. lets see how much it gives. https://www.tradingview.com/x/1GozeiTR/ {image}
funny, I can never see channels or pitchforks unless I really try...

Quoting Mr. Scott
I got shark into Trump that probably worth a trade but bigger.... {image}
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,404
  • Sep 21, 2017 6:25am Sep 21, 2017 6:25am
Quoting squawk
PS just noticed your link to article cheers good article. Note the order: wages and prices. A tight labor market leads to higher wages, which leads to higher prices. This is one of those myths that never dies: cost-push inflation. Milton Friedman was adamant that both prices and costs rise in response to an increase in aggregate demand, which is a function of the Fed’s money creation. Wage and price increases are a reflection of inflation, not a cause of it. As to the...
Hey fun stuff for us nerds.... think it is fun and provides some background as we ponder if the central bank leads us to next recession or financial disaster this time.....

Kind of knew Janet would cling to her forecasts even though data seems to indicate they are wrong again, there is no inflation and not nearly enough demand and neutral is much too near....

I think they are wrong, time will tell, most of the time, not much use but figured Janet would keep her forecasts....
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,405
  • Sep 21, 2017 6:26am Sep 21, 2017 6:26am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} funny, I can never see channels or pitchforks unless I really try... {quote} {image}
wow how perfect those animals worked out.
Great one Scott
  • #10,406
  • Sep 21, 2017 6:35am Sep 21, 2017 6:35am
Quoting squawk
{quote} UC closes the GAP nicely. Orders still seem in the market on the last sell-off. {image} {image}
UC
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,407
  • Sep 21, 2017 6:49am Sep 21, 2017 6:49am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hey fun stuff for us nerds.... think it is fun and provides some background as we ponder if the central bank leads us to next recession or financial disaster this time..... Kind of knew Janet would cling to her forecasts even though data seems to indicate they are wrong again, there is no inflation and not nearly enough demand and neutral is much too near.... I think they are wrong, time will tell, most of the time, not much use but figured Janet would keep her forecasts....
guess I am not the only one who thinks Janet is wrong
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,408
  • Sep 21, 2017 9:56am Sep 21, 2017 9:56am
Quoting ssaqeel
hi guys, Gold: took this short from 1317 stops at breakeven. next level of interest is 1288 then 1277. lets see how much it gives. https://www.tradingview.com/x/1GozeiTR/ {image}
1288.xx done, will wait for 1277
  • #10,409
  • Sep 21, 2017 2:42pm Sep 21, 2017 2:42pm
Peso
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,410
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:16pm Sep 21, 2017 3:16pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hey fun stuff for us nerds.... think it is fun and provides some background as we ponder if the central bank leads us to next recession or financial disaster this time..... Kind of knew Janet would cling to her forecasts even though data seems to indicate they are wrong again, there is no inflation and not nearly enough demand and neutral is much too near.... I think they are wrong, time will tell, most of the time, not much use but figured Janet would keep her forecasts....
Got to hand it to the Fed though, 6 months ago you would have wondered how does the Fed increase rates and devalue the dollar at the same time, so whether they have fluked it, manipulated it or planned it, it worked out for them. I'm with you though and think they don't really know what they are doing as there is no playbook that's been before. Keeping to the narrative and holding it together for the time, clinging to forecast to try and get those rates normalised to tackle the next one.

I'm inlined with ideas such as fourth turning and believe credit has come to the stage where it has maximised its extension over the baby boomer generation. With the peak of that generation retiring in the next few years I cant see an extension in demand that proceeds this cycle unless it's fueled again by helicopter money or such. There has to be a stage where the great Ponzi pensions schemes hit the wall and spending influences dry up.

Got to go with your ideas and manage your thoughts. One of my strongest convictions at the moment is Australia hitting a debt wall and sharp decline. I like the long-term short positions of the Antipodeans currencies against Europe. I cant see how the country can continue without a good recession at the current debt burden. But as they say, you can seem like a fool before a bubble or be one after. Who knows how long this takes to play out. Presently it's still up.

I enjoy pondering the ideas but useful for long-term the charts and short Macro dictate the shorter term positions.
  • #10,411
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:19pm Sep 21, 2017 3:19pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Peso {image}
Ahh, Scott, you beat me to it! I was just going to post this one. I'vee been long for a week on this one. Expectations IR rates decreasing in Mexico.
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  • #10,412
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:21pm Sep 21, 2017 3:21pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} guess I am not the only one who thinks Janet is wrong {image}
Market and Janet going two different directions at the moment.
  • #10,413
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:29pm Sep 21, 2017 3:29pm
Almost like clockwork, you could count on the surge of money for the overnight OCR on New York close. Hasn't happened since end July with the election. Interesting to see if this takes back up after.
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  • #10,414
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:48pm Sep 21, 2017 3:48pm
Possible EU momentum shift.
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  • #10,415
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:56pm Sep 21, 2017 3:56pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Nice price action looking to break last buys. {image} {image} {image}
Nice bearish close.
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  • #10,416
  • Sep 21, 2017 4:07pm Sep 21, 2017 4:07pm
NC nice patterns and area.
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  • #10,417
  • Sep 21, 2017 6:12pm Sep 21, 2017 6:12pm
Quoting squawk
NC nice patterns and area. {image} {image}
whoops totally forgot about that one, nice charts, had it and completely missed it
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,418
  • Sep 22, 2017 2:58am Sep 22, 2017 2:58am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} whoops totally forgot about that one, nice charts, had it and completely missed it
Next time scott
  • #10,419
  • Sep 22, 2017 2:59am Sep 22, 2017 2:59am
Quoting squawk
Possible EU momentum shift. {image} {image} {image}
We are there and looking for a possible setup. 120 again.
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  • #10,420
  • Sep 22, 2017 3:11am Sep 22, 2017 3:11am
Trumps threatens to flatten North Korea. North Korea threatens to set of Hydrogen bomb of in the Pacific and UJ keeps moving up. I'm not trading it but you have to wonder what constitutes risk nowadays? are the markets just complacent to risk?

The way I see it, although complicated there are three options;

- North Korea stops developing Nuclear weapons - Not going to happen
- US gets comfortable with North Korea becoming new nuclear country - Could happen but back down seems unlikely at this point
- War

Seems risky to me.
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