Scott's Journal

I am sharing my live trades and will attach screen shots along with the reason(s) for each trade. Daily and four hour time frames are monitored on 18 currency pairs. I use MT4 for charting and Forex Bootcamp's chart set-up.

I trade on simple technicals like candlestick patterns and support/resistance. Also, I changed the fibonacci to calculate entry, stop loss and profit levels.

Risk is managed with an excel spreadsheet which I designed to work with Mini accounts on MT4.

The only position I have right now is short on USD/JPY at 97.53 placed on Sunday. Initial S/L 97.80 which was above a recent high. I don't often trade this pair but I thought it was very obvious that it poked above a declining trend line.

93.50 is my target and the risk/reward ratio is about 1/8
http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m...76/usdjpy1.jpg

http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m...76/usdjpy2.jpg

I've been keeping an eye on the carry pairs and believed we are now in a bull market. This is based on the 55EMA moving above the 200EMA on the daily. This already occurred with AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF and just recently EUR/CHF. The only one I am considering buying now is GBP/CHF because the trend line sinceDec 28th, 2008 has not broken. A bullish candle stick pattern would trigger a trade.

http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m...76/gbpchf1.jpg

A bit of concern as USD/JPY is at a potential bounce of shorter term support now.

http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m...76/usdjpy3.jpg

A lower high could be coming up for EUR/GBP. I am interested in shorting this pair around 8650-8690. I expect this to happen next week.

http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m...d76/eurgbp.jpg

Manually closed USD/JPY at +270, Initial stop loss was 27 pips and 5% of the account. I scaled out half of the trade around +27 pips or what I call X1.
It has been a good week and I don't want to be too greedy.

http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m.../usdjpy3-1.jpg

Shorting EUR/USD at 14215 s/l 14315
4h candle confirmation at resistance (14300 area). There is some room to go down. Maybe the 13900 area before a bounce.

moved s/l to even at 14215

Held position over the weekend with the s/l at even (14215)
http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m...d76/eurusd.jpg

Target set at 13915

Closed half of the trade at + 147 pips

http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m...76/eurusd2.jpg

I placed a smaller trade going long on this pair. It was based on a bullish hourly candle pattern.

Entry 15420
S/l 15370
I got out a few minutes after I placed the order. I wasn't feeling good about it. I took a 15 pips loss.

http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m...d76/gbpjpy.jpg

Still holding half of the EURUSD short position. The daily MACD shows divergence indicating price will move downward.
http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m...76/eurusd3.jpg

The other half of the trade was closed out at even while the other half was closed at +147. 100 pips was the initial s/l which equaled 5% of my account. Result is an increase of about 3.75% to my account.

GBPJPY makes a higher low with a bullish candle stick pattern. 1/23/09 to 7/13/09 support trend line may hold making this the 3rd bounce. I have a close eye on the 5 min chart ready to pull the trigger risking 5% with a s/l at 15350. The bullish confirmation candle closed at 1600 which is why I have a virtical line there. Now, I will wait for a bullish pattern on the 5 minute.

http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m...76/gbpjpy2.jpg

I ended up getting in at 15546 with a tighter s/l at 15335.

http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m...76/gbpjpy3.jpg

Moved s/l to even on GBPJPY at 15546.

There has been a bit of a struggle to move beyond the entry signal candle. Worst case at this point is I break even though. I applied more risk on this trade. The 111 pip s/l equaled 10% of the account.

Here is a close up
http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m...76/gbpjpy1.jpg

The long term view starting from January
http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m.../gbpjpy2-1.jpg

Stopped out at even. In hind sight, I should of waited for another 4 hour candle to close. Maybe we'll see one more chance to get in on a carry soon.

+27.5% since journal started

It looks like there will be another chance for a long with the carry pairs. GBPJPY still near support while AUDJPY, NZDJPY and EURJPY could have more of a drop before major support is hit. I am still interested in going long on GBPJPY to position for a break above 16200.

http://i102.photobucket.com/albums/m.../gbpjpy3-1.jpg

Back in at 15525 based on an hourly bullish candle,
s/l at 15445 which is below a recent low

The new position has an 80 pip s/l while the last had a 111pip s/l. This is a good example of price moving agaist the trade, getting out, then back in with an even better position.