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  • #10,381
  • Sep 19, 2017 5:39pm Sep 19, 2017 5:39pm
little EJ, seller still in charge?
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,382
  • Sep 19, 2017 5:41pm Sep 19, 2017 5:41pm
Bones brought it up....
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,383
  • Sep 20, 2017 1:23am Sep 20, 2017 1:23am
Big reversal in the polls against the labor party and big reaction. I've been waiting to see if I can get a go shorting between 74 - 75 on the Kiwi. This spike may give the opportunity on eve of election. Don't expect to follow through but if the current party gets voted in then it may get open to a run higher you would think.

NZ Herald
The National Party has soared in popularity while Labour has plummeted, a new poll on the eve of the election shows. NZ First has also fallen in the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll and is dangerously close to falling below the 5 per cent threshold. In a complete reversal of momentum from the previous poll, National has arrested its fall and instead risen six points to 46 per cent. Labour is down seven points to 37 per cent. Under the latest poll, NZ First is back to holding the balance of power, but only by the skin of its teeth.
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  • #10,384
  • Edited 2:37am Sep 20, 2017 1:31am | Edited 2:37am
Some other options for Kiwi that I like.
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  • #10,385
  • Sep 20, 2017 2:58am Sep 20, 2017 2:58am
Quoting squawk
{quote} 2nd target taken on GN. Maybe some trouble getting through that swing prior to pull back but higher is there. {image} {image}
Some additional short and long-term thoughts GN. I would think a lot would depend on narrative from BOE or Labor win in NZ elections to break swing though.
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  • #10,386
  • Edited 4:38am Sep 20, 2017 3:45am | Edited 4:38am
Daxy watch

edit. B'strd, sneaky, the hunt goes on.

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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #10,387
  • Sep 20, 2017 3:57am Sep 20, 2017 3:57am
I like a good hunch

http://moneyweek.com/investing-in-oi...t-to-take-off/
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #10,388
  • Sep 20, 2017 4:14am Sep 20, 2017 4:14am
Quoting Lalu
I like a good hunch http://moneyweek.com/investing-in-oi...t-to-take-off/
Hi Ben,

Good article.

I was looking at Crude last week and this week and its starting to look like a bullish break to 60 on the charts to me. I had been trading crude really well last 12 months until the last swing down and have stayed out since then, but its def there. I think it needs to be higher to help inflation work. Low dollar, high crude should help import some in. Those areas on the older chart were strong.
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  • #10,389
  • Sep 20, 2017 5:56am Sep 20, 2017 5:56am
Quoting Lalu
I like a good hunch http://moneyweek.com/investing-in-oi...t-to-take-off/
ha ha nice one Ben. Bones posted chart, so posted mine, says higher....
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,390
  • Sep 20, 2017 5:58am Sep 20, 2017 5:58am
Quoting Lalu
Daxy watch edit. B'strd, sneaky, the hunt goes on. {image} {image}
very sneaky, valid 127 butterfly tf/786 , would have thought higher as well.....
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,391
  • Sep 20, 2017 6:01am Sep 20, 2017 6:01am
Quoting squawk
Some other options for Kiwi that I like. {image} {image} {image}
was thinking similar....
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,392
  • Sep 20, 2017 8:20am Sep 20, 2017 8:20am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} Hope all's well Chris aka TNT! Nice dragon trade.
Things are good Ben. Same for you buddy. I never thought of the acronym before. TNT ... I like it! LOL

Dragon going nowhere fast but I have nothing but time. We'll see.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #10,393
  • Sep 20, 2017 12:46pm Sep 20, 2017 12:46pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Hi Ben, Good article. I was looking at Crude last week and this week and its starting to look like a bullish break to 60 on the charts to me. I had been trading crude really well last 12 months until the last swing down and have stayed out since then, but its def there. I think it needs to be higher to help inflation work. Low dollar, high crude should help import some in. Those areas on the older chart were strong. {image} {image}
I find myself leaning towards the thinking of Pippa Malmgren and Hugh Hendry in their Macro Voices interviews. Higher stocks, higher commodities, high inflation. Industrial revolution 2.0
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #10,394
  • Sep 20, 2017 3:53pm Sep 20, 2017 3:53pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Trade looking to close the spike, Taking out first target on UC. {image} {image} {image}
UC closes the GAP nicely. Orders still seem in the market on the last sell-off.
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  • #10,395
  • Sep 20, 2017 3:55pm Sep 20, 2017 3:55pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} was thinking similar.... {image}
I think somewhere around there Scott, The narrative still seems to be with the Aussie at the moment.
  • #10,396
  • Sep 20, 2017 3:57pm Sep 20, 2017 3:57pm
Quoting squawk
Big reversal in the polls against the labor party and big reaction. I've been waiting to see if I can get a go shorting between 74 - 75 on the Kiwi. This spike may give the opportunity on eve of election. Don't expect to follow through but if the current party gets voted in then it may get open to a run higher you would think. NZ Herald The National Party has soared in popularity while Labour has plummeted, a new poll on the eve of the election shows. NZ First has also fallen in the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll and is dangerously close to...
Got some nice sell into 75 area. Taken some targets of now but looking for follow through to down side.
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  • #10,397
  • Sep 20, 2017 4:51pm Sep 20, 2017 4:51pm
Quoting Lalu
{quote} I find myself leaning towards the thinking of Pippa Malmgren and Hugh Hendry in their Macro Voices interviews. Higher stocks, higher commodities, high inflation. Industrial revolution 2.0
Listened to then both, Grant Williams also interviewed Hugh on Investors in Finance. I'm still mixed with the inflation story. I think it needs to come from higher prices in a cost-push up rather than demand story. I also see industrial revolution 2.0 causing just as many problems as it resolves in inefficiencies.

They were good interviews but can't say I necessarily agreed with their opinions, but who the hell am I.
  • #10,398
  • Sep 20, 2017 8:02pm Sep 20, 2017 8:02pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Listened to then both, Grant Williams also interviewed Hugh on Investors in Finance. I'm still mixed with the inflation story. I think it needs to come from higher prices in a cost-push up rather than demand story. I also see industrial revolution 2.0 causing just as many problems as it resolves in inefficiencies. They were good interviews but can't say I necessarily agreed with their opinions, but who the hell am I.
You are Squawk. I think only demand combined with monetary stimulus.

But who the hell am I? And why am I here? Oh yeah, I am Mr. Scott and I am a bad man.....

Inserted Video


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the...ics-2017-09-19
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,399
  • Edited Sep 21, 2017 12:01am Sep 20, 2017 11:44pm | Edited Sep 21, 2017 12:01am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} You are Squawk. I think only demand combined with monetary stimulus. But who the hell am I? And why am I here? Oh yeah, I am Mr. Scott and I am a bad man..... https://youtu.be/nPLDpJPaEr4 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the...ics-2017-09-19
You are a bad Bad, Bad man...!

You would know better than I Scott but I'm thinking next round of spending from an Antipodean point of view would be Infrastructure spending. If I look at Australia I can't see where demand comes from unless its government-driven projects or China (one Road etc). If consumerism accounts for say roughly 60% of GDP in most western countries then Australia has dragged so much forward spending to present day through household debt the only spending I could see would be government-backed infrastructure spending or zero rates.

I can see inflation through cost drive-up by a spike in wage growth, energy prices and commodities combined with or through more QE and zero rates. Then consumer demand may lift. Where do you see demand growth with monetary stimulus? are you thinking zero interest rates again after normalization? another round of QE or something else.

I think in the states and Europe there is a different situation than Asia which has more household debt than others. Zero rates would be needed here on next turn.
  • #10,400
  • Edited Sep 21, 2017 12:28am Sep 20, 2017 11:51pm | Edited Sep 21, 2017 12:28am
PS just noticed your link to article cheers good article.

Note the order: wages and prices. A tight labor market leads to higher wages, which leads to higher prices. This is one of those myths that never dies: cost-push inflation. Milton Friedman was adamant that both prices and costs rise in response to an increase in aggregate demand, which is a function of the Fed’s money creation. Wage and price increases are a reflection of inflation, not a cause of it.

As to the relationship between prices and wages, they generally move together. But prices lead wages, not the other way around. You can read about the relationship in academic literature, or you can think about how businesses operate.

In the mythical cost-push-inflation world, a businessman responds to increased demand by paying a higher wage to attract additional workers — and then tries to raise prices to preserve his profit margins.

Was listening to Jesse Felder interviewing William White which was a good interview recurrent monetary policy.

https://thefelderreport.com/2017/07/...netary-policy/
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