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Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

  • #561
  • Sep 20, 2017 9:45am Sep 20, 2017 9:45am
Quoting cat
{quote} I was asking out of interest, as I too never trade big news events in the blind chance they may go my way. Just getting a feel for what the Dax may do. Whatever happens, I hope it blasts out of this dreadful sideways froth we've had for 7 days already. It can be traded, but it makes life that much harder.
I have a lot of respect for those who can trade successfully in this kind of market condition. I prefer to stay flat and wait for volatility ..
  • #562
  • Sep 20, 2017 9:50am Sep 20, 2017 9:50am
Quoting Wachturm
{quote} I have a lot of respect for those who can trade successfully in this kind of market condition. I prefer to stay flat and wait for volatility ..
As long as the DAX is sideways arounds its Sept POC its not worth to trade.
I don't trade the DAX for several days now.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #563
  • Sep 20, 2017 9:52am Sep 20, 2017 9:52am
Quoting KjellDT
Wachturm, I believe you are right. A government result as Social Democrats (SPD) + Green (Grüne) + Left (Linke) would not be good news for the DAX, so I believe if these parties would win on Sunday, we could see some downside for the DAX (https://ig.ft.com/germany-poll-tracker/).
Yes, but that would be an apocalyptic scenario for the Dax. It will not happen, thats for shure
  • #564
  • Sep 20, 2017 10:03am Sep 20, 2017 10:03am
It's about perspective as well, if these parties would gain ground, there could be downside for the DAX in the short term future as long as no final government has been formed.
  • #565
  • Sep 20, 2017 10:11am Sep 20, 2017 10:11am
Quoting KjellDT
It's about perspective as well, if these parties would gain ground, there could be downside for the DAX in the short term future as long as no final government has been formed.
Yes, thats right
  • #566
  • Edited Sep 21, 2017 1:05am Sep 20, 2017 10:44pm | Edited Sep 21, 2017 1:05am
After these three days in the market, I'll state it clear. (Hey... no intention to be "rude" or "macho trader"... )

"What the hell is the mental problem the Retailers have?
Why do they feel so great pleasure in fighting the market as crazy pitbulls?"

Oh, well... understand me, I am very happy they are selling as mad so i can buy up to the sky.
Not all can be winners in the market. That's the tragic reality.
But. Do you ("you" = Hypothetical Trader... ) wanna be part of the winners or not?

I published some notes at #537 and a chart at #540 showing the true voice of Mother Market and I didn't receive comments.
They were just an example of what Gann teached to us: FACTS and not "Opinions".
(This is his heritage: not the astro-bullshit!... my nickname comes from the name of one of my horses! ROFL)

So the question again to the shorting people.
"Why did you fight your sma50 (+200)?" "Did you read some Nison's books?" "Do you know the basic of S/R?"
Guys, I think we all need some hours of meditation on the verb "LET" in the old adage:
LET the Trend be your friend!

Sorry for my passionate Italian accent... it is just and only a fraternal suggestion.
LOL and to the shorting ones the classic "Thanks for your money".
(My trading charts of these days at your disposal on Carpe Diem)

Edit: Next Time Window... 650. Judge the lows: this is a Bulls Campaign!
They are attacking the Big M in D1. They are testing the force of that M.
Chart attached: H1 + Gap Support + sma50
Attached Image
  • #567
  • Sep 21, 2017 1:38am Sep 21, 2017 1:38am
Good morning!

Dax would not have gone as high as it did yesterday without fomc that's obvious, so now it's not surprising that it's falling back down.

I don't have anything to add that you cannot see already, so I've put the fibs on the way down, and my pivot levels today are:

CP 598 - just above the 38.2% fib
R1 689
S1 552 - on top of the 90minute 100sma
S2 470

The 61.8% fib @ 566 is for me the biggest magnet initially for sellers if it comes down further today. From a technical viewpoint, I do not expect a new high today, but with the Draghi speaking later on today, anything is possible.

Good luck!
  • #568
  • Edited 2:21am Sep 21, 2017 1:54am | Edited 2:21am
Good morning, sir.
I agree 566 (as a low) is a key level.

Now could be tricky for the Bulls... we opened with a point of failure to the high.
A rejection in the open is nothing in this condition.
We must analyse and comprehend if the Bulls are going to take their profits
or if they want the M now... (to me the natural first target of that move up WAS around 680 ... if the D1 M is an M!)

Moreover. Please, notice the inverted correlation with the Eurodollar.
Is a Three Buddha that pattern forming on EUR/USD?
Again judge the lows.

To all the traders. Have a good day.

Edit... please note the "bold" of was! If this thing goes down I'll short heavily. If...

My advice is simply dont't be rigid in your analysis. Be always flexible. Follow the price. Bias/Adapt.
If she says "Tango!"... I dance the Tango!
  • #569
  • Edited 3:43am Sep 21, 2017 3:33am | Edited 3:43am
As a side note just to get a few people thinking, I have a potential high for the Dow of 22,500, if indeed it gets that high. I see a realistic technical possibility of the price coming down at least 1000 pips from there. The reason is that I have a pair of key moving averages I use that are narrowing into one another, the first time this has happened since 2013. Rather than a stock market crash, which I have no technical indication of at present, it could at least mean an end to this post-Trump pretty much straight up Bull run, and a return to the sort of market conditions we had during 2013 and 2014 before the July/Aug crash of 2015, when we had big sell offs followed by equally big rallies, all the while grinding higher but increasingly becoming more and more top heavy until it finally broke in 2015. These were wonderful trading times by the way, with lots of big moves both ways.

There is one big difference however between now and anything that has gone before, and that is the distance the price has risen from its weekly 200ema - it is hugely over-extended. The last time the price was this far away from its 200 moving averages was after the crash of 2008/9. In March of 2009, the Dow was around 4,300 pips below its 200ema. Today we are at about the same level the other way, and as we all know, sooner or later, the price, on any time frame, always returns to its 200 day moving average.

ps - There is also nice MACD diversion on the Daily Dow chart were it to start coming down now, or indeed from 22,500.
  • #570
  • Sep 22, 2017 8:19am Sep 22, 2017 8:19am
Something to ponder going into the weekend;

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/22/germ...-to-trade.html

  • #571
  • Edited Sep 23, 2017 12:10am Sep 22, 2017 10:51am | Edited Sep 23, 2017 12:10am
The Actual Chart German Kursdax Index and the Elliott count of the FDAX from A.T. since the low of end of august

Sixer
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: K-DAX-22.9.17.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EW-FDAX(180)-22.9.17.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #572
  • Sep 22, 2017 11:12am Sep 22, 2017 11:12am
I'm placing a Short over the weekend on the Dax, I just think it might take a day or two before a Coalition is formed in Germany, and this uncertainty may create some temporary weakness. Let's see. Could burn me, but willing to try.
  • #573
  • Sep 22, 2017 4:13pm Sep 22, 2017 4:13pm
Quoting PariCovek
I'm placing a Short over the weekend on the Dax, I just think it might take a day or two before a Coalition is formed in Germany, and this uncertainty may create some temporary weakness. Let's see. Could burn me, but willing to try.
Good luck, but if it gaps up, you're screwed. It might go for you, and I hope it does, but it's not a trade I'd make for sure.
  • #574
  • Sep 23, 2017 4:26am Sep 23, 2017 4:26am
We are all wondering which way the Dax is going to go when the results of the German election start coming through, and on that all depends upon which way it goes. I know little of German politics so I won't even go there.

As a TA person then, all I can do is offer what I would expect to see next week if there was no election, and I have to say I am bullish for now. What I would like to see, and what looks to me to be the direction of least resistance, is the price rising at least to the Daily 76.4% at around 12,700. This is the first port of call level for me should the price rise. Of course, depending on the election result, it can jump a lot higher than that, but then, if the result does not go the way the polls are predicting, and how many times have we seen that during the last couple of years, then yes, it could fall hard as well, though as I said, from a purely technical perspective, this is not what I see.

Enjoy your weekend all.
  • #575
  • Sep 23, 2017 6:12am Sep 23, 2017 6:12am
Quoting cat
We are all wondering which way the Dax is going to go when the results of the German election start coming through, and on that all depends upon which way it goes. I know little of German politics so I won't even go there. As a TA person then, all I can do is offer what I would expect to see next week if there was no election, and I have to say I am bullish for now. What I would like to see, and what looks to me to be the direction of least resistance, is the price rising at least to the Daily 76.4% at around 12,700. This is the first port of call...
Thanks buddy enjoy your weekend too!

@PariCovek
Good luck, hope it works out for you! Respect for your bravery

Inserted Video
  • #576
  • Sep 24, 2017 5:39pm Sep 24, 2017 5:39pm
So, buddies...now you have the results : any comment?
  • #577
  • Sep 25, 2017 1:35am Sep 25, 2017 1:35am
Morning Daxers, and welcome to a new week.

Results of the election are in, so let's get on with it.

Should get something of a pullback from here, at least I hope we do so I've put the fibs on - 50% and 61.8% look like being possible levels as long as it stays above 551 otherwise I'll have to plot them again. 61.8% is just below today's CP @ 601.

Closest support atm is the H1 200ema @ 539, but right now it seems to have got tangled up with the 200sma @ 563.

Not sure how the election result is going to drive this thing today, should be down, but not guaranteed.

My pivots today are :

CP 604
R1 658
R2 701
R3 754

S1 562
S2 509
S3 466

Good luck!
  • #578
  • Sep 25, 2017 2:06am Sep 25, 2017 2:06am
Quoting PariCovek
I'm placing a Short over the weekend on the Dax, I just think it might take a day or two before a Coalition is formed in Germany, and this uncertainty may create some temporary weakness. Let's see. Could burn me, but willing to try.
Out for +40... Still have some residual positions left. Also was Short on EU at +40, but closed out a chunk of those trades too. All remaining positions at SL BE.
  • #579
  • Sep 25, 2017 2:18am Sep 25, 2017 2:18am
Good morning guys

I want to see her above 12680 for a short. We are back in that ugly range... I am still in watching mode

Good day/luck
  • #580
  • Sep 25, 2017 3:09am Sep 25, 2017 3:09am
This is the third time the price has rallied strongly off of the H2 100sma level, with 12,650 being the resistance both times. The gap is narrowing between the price and that moving average, which means it should break eventually, but until it does, it can keep rallying until the next big MA is hit, which would be the H2 200ema @ 450.
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