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Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

  • #481
  • Edited 6:01am Sep 15, 2017 4:51am | Edited 6:01am
And now this thing beccomes tricky...
Naturally Bears have to defend and protect 560.
We Bulls need 570. With clear break.
Scale out.

Edit 12.42 my time
Wow. It was savage, not just tricky.
Scale out/Taking profit: at 560 (as per previous chart main resistance)
Scout always in: from 525
Support... 520.
And we start again. Nimble and cautious.
This is not an interactive thread.
Sorry.
Back to my cave. Go to manage my exposition. Be safe. Always in control.
  • #482
  • Sep 15, 2017 8:17am Sep 15, 2017 8:17am
Don't worry about this sideways drosh we've had since Tuesday, it's all technical. The price reached a very significant resistance level on Monday, and since then the bulls and the bears have just cancelled each other out between clear and strong support and the 12,550 resistance level. This sort of pa is to be expected for a few days after a big move until the technicals line up again one way or the other to give one side the ascendancy.

For me, this is lining up in favour of the bears, and we should hopefully see some nice selling next week, because this resistance looks strong and the last four daily candles look very bearish. The weekly candles look bullish though, so I am not ruling out higher next week by any means.

Today actually has been pretty nice, straight back and forth between the S&R I posted in my first post, so a lot better than yesterday's pa which was a nightmare.

Wishing everybody a very good weekend.
  • #483
  • Sep 15, 2017 8:23am Sep 15, 2017 8:23am
Quoting cat
... For me, this is lining up in favour of the bears, and we should hopefully see some nice selling next week, because this resistance looks strong and the last four daily candles look very bearish. ...
Same here, I'm more into bears camp...for now. Will keep my short today through NY and will see what will happen. Would be nice to break that lower TL for a start
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  • #484
  • Sep 15, 2017 8:42am Sep 15, 2017 8:42am
Quoting cat
Don't worry about this sideways drosh we've had since Tuesday, it's all technical. The price reached a very significant resistance level on Monday, and since then the bulls and the bears have just cancelled each other out between clear and strong support and the 12,550 resistance level. This sort of pa is to be expected for a few days after a big move until the technicals line up again one way or the other to give one side the ascendancy. For me, this is lining up in favour of the bears, and we should hopefully see some nice selling next week, because...
Well done

My week was somehow pathetic. Got lucky today with G/J, but Dax... well, I cant get my head around atm

Have a nice weekend!
  • #485
  • Sep 15, 2017 9:00am Sep 15, 2017 9:00am
15M looks like it found support @ ema200
  • #486
  • Sep 15, 2017 9:09am Sep 15, 2017 9:09am
Quoting Wachturm
{quote} Well done My week was somehow pathetic. Got lucky today with G/J, but Dax... well, I cant get my head around atm Have a nice weekend!
Luck? You took the trade, that's not luck, at least it shouldn't be. Yes, GJ was the place to be today for sure. yesterday would've been luck going long before the B of E press conference, but it dipped 70 pips before it shot straight back up, so getting onto it would've been difficult. Personally I tend to avoid those big knee jerk red flag moves, preferring trades that I can see in advance. Yes, all trades are a bit of a gamble in that we can never be absolutely certain which way the price is going to go, but some are more of a gamble than others that's for sure.

Will do. You too!
  • #487
  • Sep 15, 2017 9:42am Sep 15, 2017 9:42am
Quoting cat
{quote} Luck? You took the trade, that's not luck, at least it shouldn't be. Yes, GJ was the place to be today for sure. yesterday would've been luck going long before the B of E press conference, but it dipped 70 pips before it shot straight back up, so getting onto it would've been difficult. Personally I tend to avoid those big knee jerk red flag moves, preferring trades that I can see in advance. Yes, all trades are a bit of a gamble in that we can never be absolutely certain which way the price is going to go, but some are more of a gamble...
Yes, you are right. I just like to call it luck and bad luck, because I dont want to get over-confident after some winning trades and I dont want to doubt myself after some losses. Trying to be my own psychologist..
  • #488
  • Edited 1:22pm Sep 15, 2017 10:07am | Edited 1:22pm
Quoting mag00
{quote} Hello everybody ... Ger30Dec (m30) we are in the b5 wave, ... ABC correction = a(a)+b(a)+c(a)+b1+b2+b3compo+b4+b5+a(c)+b(c)+c(c) inside 3rd composed , inside its 5th one ... which TP could be 12550 (about) ... waiting the 4th @12550 (about), TP 12300 (!) ( waiting for an hidden divergence) ... and the 5th @12300, TP 12600 P.S. (next ... the a(c) wave @12600) ... ABC correction = a(a)+b(a)+c(a)+b1+b2+b3compo+b4+b5+a(c)+b(c)+c(c) {image}
Hello everybody ...

Ger30Dec (m30)

I think ... we are within b5 wave
(end its 4th one, start its 5th one)

the 5th wave is usually propulsive but ... it could be stopped in its triple (1^,3co^, 5^) internal propulsivity by the ... market itself
(activating, at the end, the wave a(c))


P.S.
in practice, the top of the 5th wave should be equal to the height of the join segment (minimum1 and minimum3) positioned at the beginning of 4th wave ...
If so, the market would go well beyond the levels that can allow for the C wave correction (inside an ABC correction), canceling everything ...
(if it were ,we would already be in the 5th wave ... of another count but ... this time inside the primary bull trend)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
  • #489
  • Edited 2:17am Sep 16, 2017 1:10am | Edited 2:17am
Good morning, DAX Dancers.
I'm doing my homework on my yesterday's trading.
I always write down all my thoughts and reflections. I think writing helps to put things in a deeper part of our brain...(LOL)

What I want to show you is how, yesterday, price respected Support and Resistance exactly to point
and how that last point was so important for a safe trading of the action.
Upstairs and Downstairs... Floor and Ceiling... with a precise balance medium price (12.530)

Cat did a great job with his posts.
And I just traded the Range, my way. (Remember: "Different terrain, different Modus Operandi".)

I'm a fanatic of Peaks and Troughs analysis. And this I propose to your attention.
What I'm trying – desperately – to communicate in each one of my posts
is the deep conviction that “Nothing is random in the Markets!” (… and this is the couple Livermore/Gann)
Each move, each tick has a profound reason and logic.
Each effect has a specific cause! (...and this is Mr. Wyckoff that studied the two guys' MO.)

I can't easily explain and share what I see in a chart after seven years of screen...
So please have a look to the battlefield as I see it. I tried to point out some "areas of interest".

Of course and naturally: if you are followers of the Random Walk Theory this chart is not for you.
Don't waste your time. (LOL)

Enjoy your week-end.

P.S. edit 9.12 my time
The resulting Doji Cross (as Candle of the Day) produced a sort of Micro Symmetrical Triangle in D1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #490
  • Sep 16, 2017 5:44pm Sep 16, 2017 5:44pm
The SPX 33 day cycle is due a turn around now, although the lower panel could run for another 4 days before it hits resistance. Post-FOMC rally ?

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4402/...5d90f5b4_z.jpg$SPX Daily_15sept17_33daycycle

DAX Daily... possible half cycle low in the offing or power on up ? Germany elections on 24th.

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4353/...cd1d1520_z.jpg$DAX - Daily_15sept17_95daycycle

No Guarantee's. DYOR.
  • #491
  • Sep 18, 2017 1:11am Sep 18, 2017 1:11am
Morning all,

I have a possible high of around 640-650 today if it gets there.
  • #492
  • Sep 18, 2017 1:19am Sep 18, 2017 1:19am
Good morning guys,

she is looking pretty bullish, but the monthly bar looks almost done to me. I am curious about the 12680 area.. ( Nothing new really )

Good luck for today


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  • #493
  • Edited 2:00am Sep 18, 2017 1:40am | Edited 2:00am
Good morning and enjoy your new week of trading.

S&P well above 2.500! Yeah. Thanks, Yellen.
Wall Street grinds record highs after records highs.

Bubble? Real economy? Globalization? Hurricanes? Global Warming? Trump's inability? Fat Boy Kim and the nuclear weapons?
Terrorism? Peace or war? Migrations? Brexit? German Elections?.... and others at your choice... Putin? China? Syria?

WHO CARES? SO WHAT?

As the Financial Times noted,
the run of American stock prices after the financial crisis triggered by the Lehman's bankruptcy
officially exceeded the rise in the 1949-1956 postwar period.
As Merril Lynch communicates yesterday.
from March 2009 the S&P500 has now earned 270 percent.

I'm a trader... I decided to be a trader. I must use the same expressions: Who cares? So what?
Price is King. Price discounts everything.
Price rallies? I buy up to the sky!
Price declines? I sell just to the hell!

Not easy. But that is it.

PS. My New avatar and signature! In line with my “trading philosophy”/profile:
I don't make market predictions. I just try to ride the bucking bronco...
Bill Dunn perfectly captured the essence of trend following in his great, insightful and brilliant statement.
Stay on saddle as long as you can.
Be the best you can be.

DAX (First resistance 627.60 - Last high/Main Resistance 676.30 - BRN 700)
But now the key is the Bears reaction.
Attached Image
  • #494
  • Sep 18, 2017 1:43am Sep 18, 2017 1:43am
My Daily pivots for today are:

CP 537
R3 631
S1 509
S2 475
  • #495
  • Sep 18, 2017 1:45am Sep 18, 2017 1:45am
I have 697 as the next target, being the 76.4% Fib... It might take a day or two to get there though.
  • #496
  • Sep 18, 2017 1:56am Sep 18, 2017 1:56am
One other important R level is the 76.4% at 12,700 plotted from the all time high in June.
  • #497
  • Sep 18, 2017 2:07am Sep 18, 2017 2:07am
Follow the Bears and judge the move.
580 - 563 - 534...
We'll see.
Watch out for possible deceptions.
  • #498
  • Sep 18, 2017 5:39am Sep 18, 2017 5:39am
Here's some wild conjecture and crazy projection on the Dax path and waypoints on its way down to the 38.2 fib - just for amusement and (my) wishful thinking!
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  • #499
  • Sep 18, 2017 7:47am Sep 18, 2017 7:47am
I have support currently on the H1 100sma to the pip. This should ( famous last words ) continue to fall. The question is when, and if it pulls back, how far will it go.
  • #500
  • Sep 18, 2017 8:18am Sep 18, 2017 8:18am
To try and answer my last question, the 10m 100sma @ 572 is one level, and above that, the 580 - 585 level, with the 61.8% pullback fib @ 585, looks like a possible level to watch for a turn around south, if it gets that high. There's also every possibility that NY may be buying this afternoon, in which case, those levels may break. But higher than this morning's high? Anything is possible I suppose.
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