Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

I find that as long as the price is still above the 1m 100sma in an uptrend, there is always a good chance of it ramping back up, maybe not for new highs, but far enough to catch you out if you've traded against it. You see the Dow is still in this position. Compare it with a much safer trade from the NY open, and you'll see on the 1m tf that with the 200ema/sma and 100sma all south of the price, the direction of travel was always more likely to be away from them, not into them.

These potential tops are much much harder to catch, and this is where the majority of people lose money. They can be traded obviously, but the risk of being stopped out is way higher.

Stopped on Dow... Still live on Dax, but reduced the risk.

And Stopped on Dax... Anyway, I took some risk off on both those trades, so I still netted some pips.

It looks like 15m negative divergence on Dax, but it can climb in these after hour if the Dow keeps going up.

The Weekly on the Dax has hit the level I thought it would, and I think it can go further. Anyway, will wait and see for tomorrow, no overnight trades at these levels.

Ger30Dec (m30)

to go short ... always wait the breakdown uptrendline (minor, intermediate, major)
(otherwise we expect ...)


P.S.
or wait for the price to return under indi ... 0line

I took a long @ 12384, its going to consolidate between 460 to 490. If it breaks 460, I will probably close my position. On the other hand if it goes thru 490 I'll hold my position and see what it does between 500 to 530.

What do you say ...

... will the island form?

Thats it for me for today, see you on Wednesday guys.

Have a nice evening

You too fella!

Just some high level fundamental analysis on Global Equities:

FTSE has an Avg PE ratio around 34.
Dow has an Avg PE ratio around 30.
Dax has an Avg PE ratio around 22.
Hang Seng has an Avg PE ratio around 14.

* Perhaps Dax and Hang Seng have more upside in the medium/long-term...

So how high do we think Dax is going to go before it turns and drops back down, if it turns and drops back down?

Difficult ? but I'll have a go.

If we take the monthly tf for starters, then clearly it looks like it could break into new highs and head towards 14,000, even 15,000 and beyond.

Scaling back to a weekly tf, then again, it presently looks strong northbound if last week's and this week's candle so far are anything to go by, but I at least have some MA resistance levels on that tf, the first of which is anywhere from here up to about 540, and this ties in with Daily resistance levels that I have.

The 76.4% fib plotted from the 17th July high has today been broken. This means that I have now plotted my fib levels from the absolute Dax high on the 20th June, and this gives a 61.8% level at 540, then the 76.4% at 700. The 61.8% I will be watching very carefully if it gets there, because I have potentially very strong MA resistance just above it at 564 as it stands at the moment.

But, until all these big moving averages are running strongly up beneath the price supporting it, as they are currently on all my time frames, then we are in bullish mode. Take today all day, the 1 minute 200ema was beneath the price. It was challenged, and briefly broken between 12.30-13.30 London time, but it was bought straight back up. Always risky trading into one of these big MAs, especially when the trend is as strong as this current one.

My analysis for the Dow is similar. Weekly shows that new highs could be broken soon. I'm beginning to think that without some major catalyst happening, a major bank collapse or war involving the US, these equity markets are just going to keep ramping higher. It would be a fool to bet against it.

stopped.

Morning all.

So, how high today then I wonder?

The 61.8% plotted from Dax's all time high is above at 12,538, and I expect the price to challenge it this morning. I posted yesterday that I had a potential top level for the Dow, one of two actually, that being the lower one. Mu higher one is at 22,100, so we'll see if that holds. EU is looking like it may rally today as well. Both of these, plus the big fib level above us on the Dax, are indications that Dax may come down today. We'll see.

Pivot levels today are:

CP 443
S1 378
S2 270

R1 552
R2 617
R3 725

I'll post anything of significance as I see it throughout the day.

Good luck!

ps - I do have some MA resistance right on the 61.8% fib level above as well. It's only on the 10 and 30 m time frames, but it could be significant seeing as it falls on such a potentially big level. The price however could push on up through it to R1 which is only just above, as it does tend to aim for pivots.

I do not know why, but I see no reason why Dax should grow at such a crazy pace
Kim still lives, the trump is still lock and load, banks have huge unpaid debts, Europe's immigration crisis, the euro is still fairly expensive .... and more

Still early, but could be a rejection at 61.8% 538.... I took a long and exited at 537 on XO. Have to monitor now.

You do not need me to tell you that the 61.8% has so far held very well. Personally I wouldn't be going anywhere near longs for now and perhaps all day. That's just my opinion though, and I could be very wrong.

Hello everybody ...

Ger30Dec (D)

this is the chart ...



P.S.
(and I am surprised by the Elliott waves ...)

Waiting for price action on smaller TF to confirm the entry short.

Moment of truth...if this 61.8% is going to break decisively to the north, surely it's now or never!

Ger30Dec (h4)

I also have this chart (Elliott waves)

we are inside the 3rd compo ...(inside b5)

... waiting for 4th and 5th (inside b5) TP = 12536


P.S.
waiting for a(c) wave @ 12536 ... + b (c) + c (c) ... TP = 11800
(end ABC correction and start bullish 5th wave )

wait and see ...