Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

Hello everybody ...


Ger30 (h1)

I think ... we are inside (5) wave (b3 compo 's) which TP is 12388 ... ABC = a(a)+b(a)+c(a)+b1+b2+b3compo+b4+b5+a(c)+b(c)+c(c)
waiting b4 wave ( corrective)


P.S.
I correct yesterday's numbering: TP should be ... 12388 (then b4)
(the same extension ("rule") : 1 = 5 wave ... it would confirm everything)

if so ... it could be a double bottom ... ( inside the AbC correction)

("Kim the ... little one")

(until proven otherwise ... (sl))

This might be a possible routemap for the Dax today and tomorrow. I think it is possibly in wave 4 (iv) of the larger C wave in this ABC retracement. This might go down to the 23.6 fib before Draghi comes over all dovish at 1.30 and sends the Dax back up to complete the C wave. This could complete in the 12410 to 12430 area (around the 50 fib retracement from the June high). Of course I could be totally wrong, but I'll take this trade as low as it wants to go or get stopped out.

I look at the big time frames exactly the way I look at the very smallest ones, so I expect the price to behave the same way on a monthly tf as I would expect it to behave with a corresponding pattern/position on a 1 minute tf. With this in mind, this up and down price movement we have been seeing recently is what I would expect with a price up around its highs threatening to fall quite a long way. Trading well away from the big moving averages in towards them, rather than away from them, especially when the big money sniffs a potential market top or bottom, is always extremely volatile until one side truly gets the upper hand to drive the price back towards those important 100 and 200ema/sma moving averages, to which, sooner or later, the price always returns. Just look at the last time the Dax was at a topping situation in April/May of 2015, the price was the same, up and down until it broke hard to the downside in August, recovering in Oct, but falling hard again in Nov. The two week Dax chart shows this very nicely.

The highest probability trades are always those which are taken away from the big moving averages, the riskiest, though potentially equally or even more profitable, are those that seek to catch a top or a bottom trading back into the 100 and 200 MAs, because one can easily get whipsawed.

What does this mean for the intra-day trader? Not a lot really, because trades should be taken with the short term in mind, but looking at it from this enlarged perspective, does help to explain days like yesterday, when the price ramped powerfully right back up off of support, certainly higher than I expected it would when the day began.

I think the ECB is running out of Quality Govt Bonds in the EU zone, which means less EUR supply being injected into the economy, hence the strong push in the EUR lately, this can be negative to the German Export economy and Dax. Probably should've exited my trade earlier today, oh well. Will sit on it still.

Took some profit off the table at 340 then, will keep the rest open with a TP of 444.

Bit late this morning, so I'll be quick.

Support atm is the 30m 100sma. If this breaks, then I'd expect it to drop at least to the 200ema @ 212.

If it pulls back from here, then CP is @ 316, just above the 50% fib, with the 61.8% @ 325. For me the highest it should go is the 76.4% @ 340.

To the downside, S1 is @ 266, and S2 @ 204, just below the 30m 200ema.

Momentum atm definitely down.

Good luck.

My view on this.....

I am not familiar with this instrument and I will have a go today...taking small stakes... wish me luck

Southerly fibs -

38.2% - 247 ( just supported price )
50% - 209
61.8% - 172
76.4% - 126

You have to adjust your northerly fibs from the levels I posted earlier.

My trap triggered on XO, at 245, which was 200sma on Daily TF. Exited most at 30m 20sma. Will leave the rest for 100TP, and SL at BE.

Have set some Long traps at 210, 7sma on Daily TF.

Sorry I posted late, off to the football finals soon, in a rush.

very slow...

Good luck

(I got my arse kicked the first days trading dax, keep your stops tight bro)

That's because it's up above the H4 200ema for the first time since July, and it doesn't know what to do about it

Have a look and see what it did then, though ir moved along the 200sma for 4 days that time before dropping. Now it's above both the 200ema and sma, so it sort of wants to go up, but the shorter time frames are saying' no fucking way pal, you're going down'.

I see......

she is in a bear channel which is also a bull flag.....I was thinking at least the TL of the channel....

Hello everybody ...

in short ...
... I expect the price @ 125 ... before buying
(5th one inside a 5th wave) (TP 388)


next b4 @ 388 (corrective one)


P.S.
doing calculations ... I would see the height of 4th one (5th wave mother) @ 220 ...
... and the base of 5th one (5th wave mother) @ 120

covered half at +25 pips

Daily Dax chart.

Trend line was well broken, and there is still room to move north up to at least the 100sma, and it well may do so. The 61.8% for today @ 318, just above today's CP, and the 76.4% @ 336, should be strong resistance tests for the price. The 30m tf tels me it won't be able to get above these today, but that's not to say it won't. The rejection of the price off of the 38,2% fib support level though is significant, indicating that there was just not enough selling pressure to take it lower. This can change quickly though, as we all know.

SL @ BE 285, reasons: she is at the top of the TL and having a fight.....

I think 12345 is a good target for today, dont expect it to go much further.

bit of support here at 29.... me think (or I like to think..)

closed second half at +10.......I let them have the fight....I might get in later...