Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

With London closed today, there may not be too much action until NY kicks off. Looking at the Dow, it's difficult to see which way they will take it today, but it looks like the support it currently has at 21, 760 ish may well hold to take it back up towards the 860 level, before falling again perhaps tomorrow. As for Dax, the pa played out so far pretty much as I posted yesterday, but whether the support holds out today remains to be seen. If we do get more up movement, then I can't see it going that much higher than today's CP, which I have at 12,184. The upper pennant trend line is running through above it just below R1 at around 230.

Rothschild's have been exiting their USD investments, and re-positioning across GBP, EUR and Far East Asia investments in recent months. Soros has bought a huge Put Option on US Equities. Sounds like the big players are expecting a drop on US Equities.

USD keeps getting weaker, which may increase import inflation and prompt eventual rate hikes, which can be negative for US Equities.

Ger30Sep (m15)


... updating

For the London open your guess is as good as mine, but they may bauy it sharply back up into the apex of the pennant, to then sell it again. The 61.8% is on the 10m 200ema @ 14, and the 76.4% ( plotted from yesterday's high ) is at 138. The most immediate suport I have is at 044, and below that I don't really have any, as we are below the Daily 200ema. I really think it can go either way, though more likely up, then down, and in light of the N Korea missile over Japan overnight, markets are going to be very nervous.

My CP is at 090. S1 is at 994, S2 @ 917, and R1 @ 167.

Good luck!

Well, the Yanks bought that dip with the Dow rallying hard in their morning session today.

Surprised Trump hasn't said much of Nth Korea's ICBMs launch over Japan; seems he is focused on Texas Floods atm...

Morning,

Very quick post.

Bullish momentum atm. Currently on 30 10sma R. Watching R1 @ 086 which is on the 30 200ema, for stronger R. 61.8% is at 104, 76.4% is at 161, but I'd be surprised if it gets much above R1. Up around there there should be a short opportunity.

CP today 977.

Good luck!

ps..I'm not expecting new lows today.

Hello everybody ...

Dax30 (h1)

my point of view ... we are inside the ... 5th wave (b(3)'s)



P.S.
... waiting the b(4), b(5), a(c), b(c), c(c)

Price is trapped at the moment, with the 30 100sma as resistance as I have it, and then the 10m 200sma which has curled around beneath the price to prop it up. The 10m 200ema is now dissecting the price, so basically it's a technical muddle, with traders unable to pick a clean direction, hence the stalemate.

It may well make a move north in the NY session, but there is plenty of R up there which I put in my first post, so I wouldn't be expecting a big move.

Contrast today with yesterday, and once the price has failed to push lower, it had plenty of room to rally back up to its 10m 200ema, which it did. Now it is there, it's a bit stuck.

Longer term, Dax for me is going to fall back to around 10,500, perhaps lower,and I posted that at the beginning of this thread somewhere. Exactly when, I cannot say, but it's been building since June, and it has been steadily falling ever since. We've broken below the Daily 200ema, which was always going to be stiff support. We did on the 10th August, but it came back, and since has been trapped by the H4 200ema above, and the Daily 200ema below. My guess is that we don't drop further from here, but it rallies back up a bit, before pushing lower. Watch the Daily 200sma, which I have currently at 220, because the money might now want to take it up towards this, before dumping it down hard.

As always, it's all speculation when trying to predict future price movement, but for me, Dax is building for quite a big fall, as it has been for a while. Technically, it is definitely on, but it may need one more rally before the floodgates really open.

Seems to be a bit of risk back in the automotive industry... VW recalls 281k vehicles in the USA over faulty fuel pumps. VW's share price still holding firm today though.

http://www.dw.com/en/volkswagen-reca...mps/a-40291240

Just having a look to see what the Dow may do this afternoon. It has found support on its 10m 100sma, and at present looks like it could put in a typical NY rally higher, perhaps up to R1 at 21,950. We've got two red flags coming up this half hour though, so this may determine the rest of today's movement on both Dax and Dow.

S&P500 (h1)

Always a point of view of mine :
I see an ... hidden divergence to complete ... the 3rd composed wave (5th)
I see gold in correction but ... TP 1339



P.S.
waiting the 4th corrective and the 5th propulsive

Good US data and the Dow falls. It's probably gone as high as it's going to go unless NY decides to jack it back up again. Dax pretty much behaving itself at present.

you say well dear .
Today DAX performance is not looks her regular performance .

Makes me sound like a 75 year old grandmother!

An English lesson for you my friend. You can say 'Dear Cat ', but you cannot say 'Cat dear '. ' Dear ' used after the person you are addressing is usually used by elderly people addressing younger people, usually relatives, or it is used for elderly people in general, though it is rather patronizing, and not used much these days.

However, here in England, men and women commonly call each other 'love', 'darling ', ' sweetheart ', even when they do not know each other, especially in shops or in the market, though it is very colloquial, and never used by foreigners. I would not take very kindly to it were you to call me any of these, unless you are a women of course!

Ha Ha so funny , Like ur comment .

Hey cat,

... in the c(h)art00n ... each one its own pseudonym


P.S.

Sylvester the Cat, Granny, Hector the Bulldog, Tweety or ... Sylvester's Friend ...

(mag00 ... aside)

Morning Daxers,

I'd expect the price to move up to at least R3 this morning, which I have at 107. The 61.8% fib taken from the Aug 25th high is just below this level @ 104, so this should be quite strong R if it gets there. It could of course rise above that, potentially on up to the 76.4% @ 160, and the trendline is running through at abo.ut 183.

We'll have to wait and see how much higher it goes, if it goes higher, before plotting any levels on the support side, at least I will.

Good luck.

sorry, amendment - I'm expecting the price to move up to at least R3 this morning, not R2, because it is already on R2, which is also the 30 minute 200sma.

Strong rejection of the 61.8% as suspected. There is plenty of support, so I think many shorts from the 61.8% would have cashed in by now. From here, difficult to say. The 15m 200ema which acted as R yesterday, is now in a supporting position @ 032. from there if it goes lower, then anywhere from here really down to around 12,000. But all speculation really. Dax often gives short, sharp chances around the London open, and if you miss them, one just has to be patient and wait for the next set up. That could well be as high as we go today though, but don't quote me on it!

I see supports holding on a few TFs, with 060 an area of solid support, with an upper resistance around 126. There is immediate resistance at 096-100.

I think it will range in between there in the early session.

Watch for breakouts, particularly around NFP and NYSE open time.

Don't forget the PMI Manufacturing data soon, it might excite the markets temporarily...