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Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

  • #201
  • Aug 15, 2017 6:57am Aug 15, 2017 6:57am
Ye not even broke it's opening range yet, hopefully some volatility in US session
  • #202
  • Edited 6:23am Aug 16, 2017 6:10am | Edited 6:23am
Quoting Landline
{quote} A neat and tidy assessment
Hey Landline,

I wondered if there is a method to calculate the time needed for a trade or ...
... if there is a possible answer to the question:

How long does it take?




P.S.
Just that sl (BE) works ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ger30 (m15).png Size: 60 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl Dax(m15)How long does it take ... Just that SL works.tpl   28 KB | 247 downloads
... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
  • #203
  • Aug 16, 2017 7:57am Aug 16, 2017 7:57am
Quoting mag00
{quote} Hey Landline, I wondered if there is a method to calculate the time needed for a trade or ... ... if there is a possible answer to the question: How long does it take? P.S. Just that sl (BE) works ... {image} {file}
My post 77 briefly explains. Time increments remember are man made. Pre big bang, according to theorists, time did not exist, in fact nothing existed.

For practical trading purposes though, time and price interact, and when that interaction occurs at a recognised level such as s & r for example, then I think it's a good point to consider a trade imo, within the context of the period of time being traded, h1, h4 d1 etc etc.

The subject of time is simple, the subject of price is simple, but understanding the combined concept using the 2 key elements for trading is, however, not.

I am not planning btw to go deeper into this here, because my opinions will differ greatly to most, and some will think I'm nuts lol, either way I've no intention of upsetting the applecart on that more than I need to.
  • #204
  • Edited Aug 17, 2017 3:56am Aug 16, 2017 9:28am | Edited Aug 17, 2017 3:56am
Quoting Landline
{quote} My post 77 briefly explains. Time increments remember are man made. Pre big bang, according to theorists, time did not exist, in fact nothing existed. For practical trading purposes though, time and price interact, and when that interaction occurs at a recognised level such as s & r for example, then I think it's a good point to consider a trade imo, within the context of the period of time being traded, h1, h4 d1 etc etc. The subject of time is simple, the subject of price is simple, but understanding the combined concept using the 2 key...
Hey Landline,

I agree: time is part of the dimensions (I suppose they are not even positive integers ... for the last Fermat theorem) and it is defined as a succession of events.
The event is a physical state = dimension and matter = energy

In the two-dimensional (Euclidean) chart we find time and price (numerical entity defined by the anthropomorphic according to its needs: trader, mind, cognitive distortion, bargain)

So there is a physiological parameter (contracted entity on the basis of its needs) and a physical parameter (time) in a two dimensional universe: x ^ n + y ^ n = z ^ n (n = 2) ... equation of 2nd degree with a solution (easier than in physical reality)

To highlight the degree of indeterminacy determined by time, I coined the term of "EVENTualisation" and this would develop into a Newton binomial, functionally

A = long
B = complement to long = short
3 = time eventualizing the matter = price

(a + b) ^ 3 = a ^ 3 + 3*a ^ 2*b + 3*a*b ^ 2 + b ^ 3

Where it is seen how time=3 shapes the price making it real probabilistic (3 times instead of 1) but indeterminate (which of the two complements between them) in a two dimensional universe (price and time)

It will appear in the middle (standard deviation, average) in a "theoretical" Gaussian Distribution


P.S.
How, if all this is correct, taking advantage of all this is the daily search for ... each trader ...
... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
  • #205
  • Aug 18, 2017 1:43am Aug 18, 2017 1:43am
I had a buy position trigger overnight on the Dax30 at 12100, as it was an overnight trade I placed a wide SL.

If this is formation of an Inverted H&S, then it should've found support on the newly forming right side shoulder.

Entry now at BE SL, TP set for 12172.5; which is the 7sma on 4H.

I see resistance at 150, a cluster of MAs at 160-180, then 190, 200.

Let's see how we go, its a free ride now.
  • #206
  • Aug 18, 2017 2:19am Aug 18, 2017 2:19am
Quoting PariCovek
I had a buy position trigger overnight on the Dax30 at 12100, as it was an overnight trade I placed a wide SL. If this is formation of an Inverted H&S, then it should've found support on the newly forming right side shoulder. Entry now at BE SL, TP set for 12172.5; which is the 7sma on 4H. I see resistance at 150, a cluster of MAs at 160-180, then 190, 200. Let's see how we go, its a free ride now.
Stopped, Long at 188, SL BE, TP 120-150, wait and see.
  • #207
  • Aug 18, 2017 2:34am Aug 18, 2017 2:34am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Stopped, Long at 188, SL BE, TP 120-150, wait and see.
Took the money and ran for the hills. I still think this can go to 145-150, with next daily targets at 160-180, 190, 200.
  • #208
  • Aug 24, 2017 4:01am Aug 24, 2017 4:01am
From a classic Elliot wave perspective off the daily, this could possibly be the route for the Dax over the next few days. If wave B to C is equidistant to the A wave off the Aug 11th low (as the theory goes) then price should reach the 12410 area to complete the C wave and end around the 50% fib from the June high. Then the main downtrend should continue - only time will tell. No predictions here - it's just a possibility. But for me it's a high probability trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #209
  • Aug 24, 2017 8:16am Aug 24, 2017 8:16am
Hi folks!!

Here we are with another 95% high probability trade!! The DAX will almost definitely come back to 12210.00 level
Easy 30 points from here, and easy money !! The only thing to figure out is the when it will happen. Im in

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30H1.png Size: 25 KB
  • #210
  • Aug 24, 2017 8:38am Aug 24, 2017 8:38am
Quoting sconcha
Hi folks!! Here we are with another 95% high probability trade!! The DAX will almost definitely come back to 12210.00 level Easy 30 points from here, and easy money !! The only thing to figure out is the when it will happen. Im in Cheers {image}
but I think today not possible .Lets see
Regard NOOR16
  • #211
  • Aug 24, 2017 8:48am Aug 24, 2017 8:48am
Quoting Noor16
{quote} but I think today not possible .Lets see
I really dont care when it is... today, tomorrow, monday.. That is the least of our problems !
  • #212
  • Aug 24, 2017 8:51am Aug 24, 2017 8:51am
Quoting sconcha
{quote} I really dont care when it is... today, tomorrow, monday.. That is the least of our problems !
I see
Regard NOOR16
  • #213
  • Aug 24, 2017 8:54am Aug 24, 2017 8:54am
Quoting Noor16
{quote} I see

Guess we did not wait too long
  • #214
  • Aug 24, 2017 9:01am Aug 24, 2017 9:01am
Quoting sconcha
{quote} Guess we did not wait too long
Regard NOOR16
  • #215
  • Aug 24, 2017 9:06am Aug 24, 2017 9:06am
Quoting sconcha
Hi folks!! Here we are with another 95% high probability trade!! The DAX will almost definitely come back to 12210.00 level Easy 30 points from here, and easy money !! The only thing to figure out is the when it will happen. Im in Cheers {image}
That's gotta be call of the week without any doubt....
  • #216
  • Edited Aug 25, 2017 7:52am Aug 24, 2017 10:18am | Edited Aug 25, 2017 7:52am
Ger30Sep (m30) & (h4)


inside the 3rd (3 compo's)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ger30Sep (m30).png Size: 52 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Ger30 (h4).png Size: 60 KB
... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
  • #217
  • Edited 10:08am Aug 25, 2017 6:00am | Edited 10:08am
Quoting mag00
Ger30Sep (m30) & (h4) inside 5 (five's) ... of 3(compo)1 P.S. ... I am waiting @ 12280 the 3(compo)2 wave corrective {image} {image}
Ger30Sep (m15)


... updating
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ger30Sep (m15).png Size: 49 KB
... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
  • #218
  • Aug 27, 2017 9:22am Aug 27, 2017 9:22am
Since I've been away, you can see that the price rose all the way back to its H4 200ema following the strong sell off on the 10th of August, and then remained in a range, with the 200ema/sma forming strong resistance. Looking at the set up now, I'd favour shorts initially, down to probably the 76.4% fib level, which also sits on the lower pennant trend line, so if it drop there tomorrow Monday, then I will look to exit at that level if I am short, which will be around the 12,080 level. I do have a lower level of support, which is around 12,050 as it stands right now.

If on the other hand it rallies first of all tomorrow morning, then the obvious level of R is going to be this H4 200 ema/sma again, from where it may wel drop again.

Things can look very different on a Monday morning from how they look on Sunday, so we'll have to wait until the Frankfurt open to really get a clear picture.

Bank holiday here in the UK tomorrow, so it may be a slow day with London not open, though NY should provide plenty of movement even if the morning doesn't.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 30 (DFB).png Size: 63 KB
  • #219
  • Aug 27, 2017 12:52pm Aug 27, 2017 12:52pm
Quoting cat
Since I've been away, you can see that the price rose all the way back to its H4 200ema following the strong sell off on the 10th of August, and then remained in a range, with the 200ema/sma forming strong resistance. Looking at the set up now, I'd favour shorts initially, down to probably the 76.4% fib level, which also sits on the lower pennant trend line, so if it drop there tomorrow Monday, then I will look to exit at that level if I am short, which will be around the 12,080 level. I do have a lower level of support, which is around 12,050 as...
Good thinking , like it .
Regard NOOR16
  • #220
  • Aug 28, 2017 3:36am Aug 28, 2017 3:36am
For those of you interested in the Dow, that weekly diversion pattern with MACD I posted on page 3 now has a confirming bearish cross, so the Dow could be coming down now, which obviously has consequences right across the board. I say could, because of late, US stocks have a habit of driving right back up again as soon as they are looking like a significant sell off is on the cards.
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