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Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

  • #141
  • Edited 2:40pm Aug 9, 2017 2:28pm | Edited 2:40pm
Hello everybody ...

Ger30 (m30) & (m15)

inside a 3rd compo ( 12130 to TP 12200), waiting the 4th corrective (12200 to 12195) and the 5th (12195 to TP 12330)

As I wrote this afternoon ( in another post) ...

... Gold broke the maximum but ... I think Dax is making a megaphone, creating waves of even greater magnitude even in extension
(predicts rising volatility upwards and then downwards)

Prices will be UP (inside the 5th) to the maximum.
We are on the 1st one of five waves (as by program) inside a megaphone: increasing the amplitude and volatility of the excursions


P.S.
A warning sign of a fall (but also climb : inside a 5th wave ?) in prices: megaphone which I perceive within the price structure
(Will it be visible from the outside, in the daily chart, subsequently?)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ger30 (m30.png Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Ger30 (m15).png Size: 64 KB
... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
  • #142
  • Aug 9, 2017 2:38pm Aug 9, 2017 2:38pm
Quoting Wachturm
{quote} Nice. Do you place your trades on the weekly chart? Want to share your potential target and stop?
My targetated area will be 2399 then 2655 sl 1980
Regard NOOR16
  • #143
  • Edited 10:04pm Aug 9, 2017 9:52pm | Edited 10:04pm
Quoting PariCovek
Keeping an eye on Trump and his threats to North Korea. I know this is the Dax thread, but a war there, which is probable given the US history with threats and wars, then I'd be looking for a huge short on the highly priced Hang Seng (HK). There could be a massive drop there.
Huge drop today, some 500 pips.
  • #144
  • Aug 9, 2017 10:43pm Aug 9, 2017 10:43pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Huge drop today, some 500 pips.
I was wondering why DAX had come down as fast it went up settling below 200emas across all major TFs yesterday during US session. I'm sure asian equities had a blast this morning.
...
  • #145
  • Aug 10, 2017 1:11am Aug 10, 2017 1:11am
Back to Dax, I see support at 12100, and immediate resistance levels of 12165, 12200, 12226. This could be the initial range for the day.

Any bigger move I see capped around 12300-325, and 12000.
  • #146
  • Aug 10, 2017 1:26am Aug 10, 2017 1:26am
Morning all!

Support right now off of the Frankie open is thew 50% fib @ 142. The main S is still 12,100, which held well yesterday. Look toi the 61.8 and the 76.4 fibs @ 132 and 119 respectively for further support above the 100 level. I am actually not expecting it to break today either, so we'll see if I'm right about that, and I see the price being held on or around one of these fib levels. S1 would be my lowest support above a challenge of the 12,100 level.

To the upside, no fibs on yet, but initially it's the 5m 200ema which is just below today's CP @ 166. Next up it's the 10m 200ema/sma both at the 180 level. No point taking it further up here, we'll just wait and see what London does with it. Ifit really does lift though, then I'd expect it to rise to between 188 and 200 or so.

Today's pivots are:

CP 168
S1 107
S2 036
S3 975

R1 238
R2 300
R3 370

Good luck!
  • #147
  • Aug 10, 2017 1:52am Aug 10, 2017 1:52am
Ref post 1
Just one thing I ask, if you do post charts, which is great, no problem there, but keep it to one or two, as there's no bigger turn off than someone who posts ten of their own charts in a row, bearing in mind that for most of us, another trader's charts can be pretty meaningless when they bear absolutely no resemblance or relation to our own.

Some tangled looking charts posted lately...just my opinion
  • #148
  • Aug 10, 2017 2:21am Aug 10, 2017 2:21am
I think 12165 and 12180 might be hard to crack this morning. Just another 2 cents.
  • #149
  • Aug 10, 2017 2:44am Aug 10, 2017 2:44am
Good morning.

That 15m head and shoulders pattern has its neckline 12135. If the 1h candle closes above 12135 then there could be a stitch up.
  • #150
  • Aug 10, 2017 2:53am Aug 10, 2017 2:53am
Quoting mag00
Hello everybody ... Ger30 (m30) & (m15) inside a 3rd compo ( 12130 to TP 12200), waiting the 4th corrective (12200 to 12195) and the 5th (12195 to TP 12330) As I wrote this afternoon ( in another post) ... ... Gold broke the maximum but ... I think Dax is making a megaphone, creating waves of even greater magnitude even in extension (predicts rising volatility upwards and then downwards) Prices will be UP (inside the 5th) to the maximum. We are on the 1st one of five waves (as by program) inside a megaphone: increasing the amplitude and volatility...
Hello everybody ...

Ger30 (m15)

inside the 5th ... (TP 12180)
We are in the first block(12345) inside the 5th one ( ... 1st block of 5th mother wave) ... 4 layers or fractals or matrioskas
Everything has a megaphone structure : they seem ... composed

P.S.
waiting the 2nd wave (corrective)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ger30 (m15).png Size: 62 KB
... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
  • #151
  • Aug 10, 2017 3:48am Aug 10, 2017 3:48am
If you didn't short this from just after the London open, then obviously it's too late to do it now. Therefore one should be looking for a buy signal, because at this big support level, once this rejection, if this rejection, is confirmed, the price is likely to take off northbound fast, so be vigilant.
  • #152
  • Aug 10, 2017 4:12am Aug 10, 2017 4:12am
Well, there we go, 12,100 comprehensively broken. Clear water to the downside now until about 11,600, which is the 2 day 200ema, so what's it going to do I wonder?? pullback and rollover for further downside, or confound everybody and come all the way back. Super Thursday seldom disappoints.
  • #153
  • Aug 10, 2017 5:20am Aug 10, 2017 5:20am
Quoting cat
Well, there we go, 12,100 comprehensively broken. Clear water to the downside now until about 11,600, which is the 2 day 200ema, so what's it going to do I wonder?? pullback and rollover for further downside, or confound everybody and come all the way back. Super Thursday seldom disappoints.
It has nearly moved 140 points, which is the daily average range ( 12040 )
I think if we drop below 12040, there could be a chance to trade it back to 12085 / 12100
Waiting for NY open...
  • #154
  • Aug 10, 2017 5:50am Aug 10, 2017 5:50am
Quoting Wachturm
{quote} It has nearly moved 140 points, which is the daily average range ( 12040 ) I think if we drop below 12040, there could be a chance to trade it back to 12085 / 12100 Waiting for NY open...
The big ? now is ' where is the bottom'" because that 12,100 level had held since the 28th July. It really is now free to fall a lot further, so it just depends on your horizon - are you in for a longer term fall, are are you content to take profits, perhaps trade it back up a bit, and catch the next leg down, because technically now there should be one. All this depends on the type of trader we are. The Dow is looking very bearish again, but we all know that this counts for nothing once the NY lads hit the screens.
  • #155
  • Edited 8:27am Aug 10, 2017 7:19am | Edited 8:27am
Potential support (Dax) at 11944 which is the 23.6 retrace from the Feb 11 2016 low @8693 to the June high @12954 ? Also that 11940 level attracted strong buyers back in April this year.
  • #156
  • Edited 10:13am Aug 10, 2017 9:01am | Edited 10:13am
August 2015, between the 10th and the 24th, the Dax fell over 2,300 pips. My weekly chart, though not identical, is very similar. Forget what happened last Summer, the Dax was rising away from its weekly 200ema. Now it is in roughly the same position it was in two years ago, way above its 200ema, which as we all know, the price always returns to sooner or later. We may get a sudden crash like two years ago, or it may be more gradual, but we are going down, that's for sure, and 11,000-10,500 I think we could see. As intra-dayers though, it doesn't really matter, we just take the signals either way, but I think from here on, although there will be great buy trades, the main thrust of momentum is going to be South until the tech picture shows otherwise.

Does this mean there's a stock market crash around the corner? To me, there is a very good chance that there is.
  • #157
  • Aug 10, 2017 9:43am Aug 10, 2017 9:43am
anyone using prorealtime charts from IG Index will know that their terminal is down. Intertrader Direct provide the same charts for free provided you open an account. I always have a back up just for days like this, because it does happen from time to time, especially when there are big price moves!!
  • #158
  • Aug 10, 2017 10:19am Aug 10, 2017 10:19am
Quoting cat
August 2015, between the 10th and the 24th, the Dax fell over 2,300 pips. My weekly chart, though not identical, is very similar. Forget what happened last Summer, the Dax was rising away from its weekly 200ema. Now it is in roughly the same position it was in two years ago, way above its 200ema, which as we all know, the price always returns to sooner or later. We may get a sudden crash like two years ago, or it may be more gradual, but we are going down, that's for sure, and 11,000-10,500 I think we could see. As intra-dayers though, it doesn't...
Hey cat,

I have this chart and ... Dax forecast

It is only a point of view (based on Elliott waves and relative price and timing)


P.S.
Maybe just imagination ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ger30 (D).png Size: 42 KB
... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
  • #159
  • Aug 10, 2017 10:43am Aug 10, 2017 10:43am
Quoting mag00
{quote} Hey cat, I have this chart and ... Dax forecast It is only a point of view (based on Elliott waves and relative price and timing) P.S. Maybe just imagination ... {image}
All points of view are valid and most welcome. Time will tell.
  • #160
  • Aug 10, 2017 12:35pm Aug 10, 2017 12:35pm
Quoting mag00
{quote} Hello everybody ... Ger30 (m15) inside the 5th ... (TP 12180) We are in the first block(12345) inside the 5th one ( ... 1st block of 5th mother wave) ... 4 layers or fractals or matrioskas Everything has a megaphone structure : they seem ... composed P.S. waiting the 2nd wave (corrective) {image}
Ger30 (m30)

Should start the 5th (inside a megaphone), if I am not wrong ... maybe



P.S.
I think UP in 5th ... Beethoven
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ger30 (m30).png Size: 58 KB
... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
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