I think the long term retracement for dax is near 12400 area, so it will resume uptrend with dips of course till that area and then drop ... as the 61.8 is at 12400.
- #102
- Aug 8, 2017 6:45am Aug 8, 2017 6:45am
- Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,783 Posts
In keeping with the looking ahead philosophy, I am looking for any signs now of DAX weakness, based mainly on my Time and Price (TAP) principles of tradeable levels. Both my weekly and daily charts are now reasonably aligned in that respect, and I'll be looking for entry signals via H4. I'm targeting two tp levels ultimately...12365 and 12500. Correct stops and of course patience are key. I'll update if anything interesting happens.
Having said that, my tap chart on h4 may present an opportunity later today or tomorrow a.m. to take an intraday short on. I won't know that for at least 6 hours but that is a real possibility for me.
I attach a Daily chart with my own settings. We have discussed differences of opinion, and note, I've no intention of discussing that further or my set up should anyone ask. I'll post trades now and again as per the OP's guidelines, that's all.
- #109
- Edited 12:02pm Aug 8, 2017 11:42am | Edited 12:02pm
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Trader | 5,442 Posts
Anyone here trade off of a 1m tf or smaller?
I want to post this chart because it shows a very typical reversal pattern.
At 20pm London time, when the price pushes down hard to make a new low, there's no way of knowing at this point whether it'll keep on going, or put in a bottom, because as we know, the price very often puts in a really powerful final move before it turns.
What I was looking for, was how the price would react with the 100sma, which was the first big MA above it. First, the price dips away from it from the little orange arrow on the centre left of screen, which was a rollover opportunity, it falls away hard, but then stops, putting in consecutive positive candles, and importantly setting up diversion with MACD, not just on this tf, but on the 3m and 5m as well.
Once the price breaks and holds above the 20sma ( red/blue), it travels sideways putting in a series of lower and upper stalks right beneath the 100sma. Nine times out of ten, this is a strong signal that the price is about to break through it, so look out for this sideways movement in a situation like this. You can either enter on one of these, with a SL on this tf of 15 to 20 pips, or you can wait until the 100sma has been broken. To aid you in this, a trend line is often possible, so get it in if you can. It should be drawn, as you see here, from the first high after the price bottoms, to a mid point high if you can see one. In this case, I think the price ( which always has eyes ) knew it was there, and this is another reason for the sideways movement just before the break out. There is very often such sideways movement before a breakout. With the Dax, there are often very few second chances, because when the Dax moves, it moves.
For those who missed it, I did post earlier that I thought the Dax looking like it was about to break north. I don't post my trades, and don't want this thread to become too interactive, but I hope some may find this chart useful. If not, then no harm done.
ps - I do use other moving averages from those posted here, but I always leave them off my chart. If I include them, I am always questioned about them. Basically, they give me extra conformation that a trade may be on. What I will say is they consist of a 50, 100 and 200, though I'll keep the type to myself. On this 1m chart, the 200, which is the most powerful for trade terms, was beneath the price. That is the key, because then you know that there is powerful support there. What I would say however, is that anyone who is interested in using MAs in this way, then just do what I did and go through them all and see if you can come up with something that seems to work. A warning though, because I use them as part of a multi-time frame strategy, and moving averages used in this way can often confuse. It took me a very long time before I was able to use them and understand them so that the time frames I have open complement each other rather than conflict with one another. As always with trading, it's finding the right combination, and the only way you can find it is through lots and lots of trial and error.
I want to post this chart because it shows a very typical reversal pattern.
At 20pm London time, when the price pushes down hard to make a new low, there's no way of knowing at this point whether it'll keep on going, or put in a bottom, because as we know, the price very often puts in a really powerful final move before it turns.
What I was looking for, was how the price would react with the 100sma, which was the first big MA above it. First, the price dips away from it from the little orange arrow on the centre left of screen, which was a rollover opportunity, it falls away hard, but then stops, putting in consecutive positive candles, and importantly setting up diversion with MACD, not just on this tf, but on the 3m and 5m as well.
Once the price breaks and holds above the 20sma ( red/blue), it travels sideways putting in a series of lower and upper stalks right beneath the 100sma. Nine times out of ten, this is a strong signal that the price is about to break through it, so look out for this sideways movement in a situation like this. You can either enter on one of these, with a SL on this tf of 15 to 20 pips, or you can wait until the 100sma has been broken. To aid you in this, a trend line is often possible, so get it in if you can. It should be drawn, as you see here, from the first high after the price bottoms, to a mid point high if you can see one. In this case, I think the price ( which always has eyes ) knew it was there, and this is another reason for the sideways movement just before the break out. There is very often such sideways movement before a breakout. With the Dax, there are often very few second chances, because when the Dax moves, it moves.
For those who missed it, I did post earlier that I thought the Dax looking like it was about to break north. I don't post my trades, and don't want this thread to become too interactive, but I hope some may find this chart useful. If not, then no harm done.
ps - I do use other moving averages from those posted here, but I always leave them off my chart. If I include them, I am always questioned about them. Basically, they give me extra conformation that a trade may be on. What I will say is they consist of a 50, 100 and 200, though I'll keep the type to myself. On this 1m chart, the 200, which is the most powerful for trade terms, was beneath the price. That is the key, because then you know that there is powerful support there. What I would say however, is that anyone who is interested in using MAs in this way, then just do what I did and go through them all and see if you can come up with something that seems to work. A warning though, because I use them as part of a multi-time frame strategy, and moving averages used in this way can often confuse. It took me a very long time before I was able to use them and understand them so that the time frames I have open complement each other rather than conflict with one another. As always with trading, it's finding the right combination, and the only way you can find it is through lots and lots of trial and error.
- #111
- Aug 8, 2017 12:26pm Aug 8, 2017 12:26pm
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Trader | 5,442 Posts
I was speaking to a friend about the Dow earlier today, saying I thought that it was building for a fall. We were discussing when this might be. Personally, I used to trade the Dow in the NY session, but I stopped a while ago because it became too difficult to trade - reversing suddenly with no warning to the upside just when it looks as if it is about to sell off, just like today. I still think it's building a top, not necessarily a terminal top, but a decent correction. It's just a matter of timing it. If anyone is interested in catching a potential big Dow trade, I'll post anything of interest here.
Does anyone else have any thoughts on what US equities are up to? Personally, the way they keep ramping higher lead me strongly to believe there is quite a lot of manipulation going on...the powers that be just don't want US equiites to come down as that will expose the real weakness of the US economy, and the only way Trump can keep talking it up is if the stock market keep on pushing higher. It's also bloody hilarious that while he was running for President equities were a bubble pumped up artificially with all this fake money, but now he's President, he's claiming the credit for it. What as ass he is, though believe me, I was no Hillary fan!
Does anyone else have any thoughts on what US equities are up to? Personally, the way they keep ramping higher lead me strongly to believe there is quite a lot of manipulation going on...the powers that be just don't want US equiites to come down as that will expose the real weakness of the US economy, and the only way Trump can keep talking it up is if the stock market keep on pushing higher. It's also bloody hilarious that while he was running for President equities were a bubble pumped up artificially with all this fake money, but now he's President, he's claiming the credit for it. What as ass he is, though believe me, I was no Hillary fan!
- #116
- Aug 9, 2017 1:57am Aug 9, 2017 1:57am
- | Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Zaedno pravi sila. Cosmos e za nas. | 1,932 Posts
- #117
- Aug 9, 2017 2:05am Aug 9, 2017 2:05am
- | Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Zaedno pravi sila. Cosmos e za nas. | 1,932 Posts
