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Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

  • #81
  • Aug 7, 2017 3:57am Aug 7, 2017 3:57am
Quoting BBalazs
Honestly, you just made the matter more confusing for me. I tend to be skeptical towards these vague explanations. If you make money with your approach however, just keep doing it I guess.
No prob...let's just leave it there...this isn't the time or place to go into detail, that would require a separate thread for that purpose.
  • #82
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:00am Aug 7, 2017 4:00am
Quoting Landline
{quote} I was asked to explain, which I've done briefly. The fact that you take a negative view is down to you. I'm not out on a mission to educate, but simply responded to a question asked of me, and as such have offered my view. By all means, you stick to your sqigley ma's and oscillators, makes no difference to me, but some of the others may realise what I've said makes more sense and to investigate for themselves further.
During the years I have been following ff, I have seen hundreds of traders, usually fairly inexperienced ones, claim that this or that doesn't work, it is useless, etc etc. If you were to trawl through my many posts, you would find that never once have I ever saide that this or that doesn't work, because I know very well that what works for me may well not work for someone else and vise versa. To maintain, as you have just done, that oscillators and moving averages are useless as indicators, you are displaying the same immaturity and arrogance that so many have done before you. I would suggest that you put your views and opinions across, which may have great merit, as being only your own, and that that which you have tried or not tried, succeeded or failed with, as precisely that. To dismiss something out of hand because it has not worked for you, in both foolish and pretentious. Enough said on my part.
  • #83
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:10am Aug 7, 2017 4:10am
Quoting cat
{quote} During the years I have been following ff, I have seen hundreds of traders, usually fairly inexperienced ones, claim that this or that doesn't work, it is useless, etc etc. If you were to trawl through my many posts, you would find that never once have I ever saide that this or that doesn't work, because I know very well that what works for me may well not work for someone else and vise versa. To maintain, as you have just done, that oscillators and moving averages are useless as indicators, you are displaying the same immaturity and arrogance...
It's your thread.....keep a lid on it man, you seem to be getting chippy all of a sudden, which is probably a reflection of your character.

Let it go and chill
  • #84
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:15am Aug 7, 2017 4:15am
Quoting Landline
{quote} It's your thread.....keep a lid on it man, you seem to be getting chippy all of a sudden, which is probably a reflection of your character. Let it go and chill
Not at all, just calling you out for making unhelpful over generalizations. Opinions are one thing, and I welcome them on this thread, but only if they are your opinions, and not offered as a statement of fact, as you have done.
  • #85
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:16am Aug 7, 2017 4:16am
Quoting Landline
{quote} It's your thread.....keep a lid on it man, you seem to be getting chippy all of a sudden, which is probably a reflection of your character. Let it go and chill

Lol why should that be ? because probably you disregard his way of trading as total nonsense , and now you attack "his character".

Wonder why he is "chippy".
  • #86
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:28am Aug 7, 2017 4:28am
First potential level of support here at 260 which is the 15m rising 100sma. Notice I say ' potential'...nothing categorical....

Probably more of a pullback than a place to go long, for me at least.
  • #87
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:37am Aug 7, 2017 4:37am
Both made valid points, there is no need to discuss it any further.

Lets focus on DAX

I say it will come down to support 10200 +/- today or at best tomorrow.. unfinished business at that level

Cheers
  • #88
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:45am Aug 7, 2017 4:45am
sconcha,

rethink your outlook for today:

The US-Futures are in positive territory - new ATH`s are possible, the EURUSD is lower.

Why shall the DAX go to 12200 ?

Sixer
  • #89
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:53am Aug 7, 2017 4:53am
Quoting sconcha
Both made valid points, there is no need to discuss it any further. Lets focus on DAX I say it will come down to support 10200 +/- today or at best tomorrow.. unfinished business at that level Cheers
I think you meant 12200....and I agree a retrace is looking likely at this point, but I would doubt quite so far personally, and I'd rather wait a few hours to climb on the long boat when conditions to do so improve, a little later on I suspect
  • #90
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:54am Aug 7, 2017 4:54am
Quoting Sixer
sconcha, rethink your outlook for today: The US-Futures are in positive territory - new ATH`s are possible, the EURUSD is lower. Why shall the DAX go to 12200 ? Sixer
I am not saying, today, nobody knows what the market will do or behave.
I work with probabilities, and that is all i rely on.
There is a very good probabilty that DAX will meet the 12200 level and even a bigger one on the 12220 level (give or take a few points its not exact science )
The probability is there, i just don't know when. I trade probabilities

Cheers!
  • #91
  • Aug 7, 2017 5:23am Aug 7, 2017 5:23am
Just chipping in on the previous exchange if I may, I think with the Dax, it is always dangerous to say it'll do this or it'll do that. Look at the 1st August, so last Monday, it was an amazingly bullish day, breaking through all the potential resistance levels on the H1 tf, eventually stopping at 12,300. The next day, back it came, all the way to its 61.8%, falling further on Wednesday to the strong 12,100 level we had since the 28th July. So best not to rule anyting in or out with the Dax, as once it gets momentum behind it, it can fall or rally further than most people expect it to, as we are seeing right now.
  • #92
  • Aug 7, 2017 5:33am Aug 7, 2017 5:33am
uptrend to resume to 444

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practising coitus interruptus
  • #93
  • Aug 7, 2017 5:33am Aug 7, 2017 5:33am
One more point I'd like to add, and this is just my opinion, the way I trade. I tend not to look anywhere but the Dax when I am trading it, especially in the European session. So do I look to see what US Futures are doing? No, I do not, I just trade the technical patterns I see on the Dax. If I start wondering what other pairs or indecis are doing, I will have the sort of interference a purely technical trader such as myself does not want or need.
  • #94
  • Aug 7, 2017 5:36am Aug 7, 2017 5:36am
Quoting cat
One more point I'd like to add, and this is just my opinion, the way I trade. I tend not to look anywhere but the Dax when I am trading it, especially in the European session. So do I look to see what US Futures are doing? No, I do not, I just trade the technical patterns I see on the Dax. If I start wondering what other pairs or indecis are doing, I will have the sort of interference a purely technical trader such as myself does not want or need.

could not agree more. Other than DAX is just noise...
we only need the price really
  • #95
  • Aug 7, 2017 5:46am Aug 7, 2017 5:46am
Quoting sconcha
{quote} could not agree more. Other than DAX is just noise... we only need the price really
You're half right at least lol...add time to the mix near an identifiable level and you'll be right more often than not...IN MY OPINION of course hahaha
  • #96
  • Aug 7, 2017 8:04am Aug 7, 2017 8:04am
Seems to have found suport for now on the 50% fib retrace, just above the 30m 20ema, one of the support levels I gave in my first post today.

Just getting away from technicals for a second.

We all know that in trading there are many ways to skin a cat. So I have my own approach to trading, which encompasses what I see, how I see it, what I'm looking for, the indicators I use etc . In this I am unique, because no one else out there sees the market exactly as I do, and that applies to all of us. We all have out favourite indicators and method, or if not, we are still searching for them, which probably applies to the majority of people viewing any thread on forex factory. When however, we do find the right blend of whatever it is we find, and start making money consistently, it will almost always come as a result of our own endeavors over time, seeing what works and what doesn't. When we do finally find the formula that fits our personality, preferences and time constraints, it is best to bear in mind that what we have devised is unique to us and us alone. If it works, it works for us, but may not be at all suitable or even understandable for the next person.

This is why I dislike the one size fits all approach taken by some posters on ff, the ' moving averages are a waste of time ' type post. I do see a lot of this, elsewhere, but am hoping to get away from it on this thread. If I am ever guilty of it, I would expect to be taken up on it by anybody out there. There are many indicators I have never used, in fact most I never use, as I know only moving averages, fibonacci, trend lines, pivot points, slow stochastic, Bollinger bands, and of course pa, especially candlestick formation at critical areas, and the rest I don't comment on as I know nothing about them. I use the above not because I consider them the apogee of indicators, but because my own education has led me to believe that for my own particular style of trading, they are the most effective.

Basically, everything works in the right hands.
  • #97
  • Aug 8, 2017 1:33am Aug 8, 2017 1:33am
Morning Daxers.

Looking at my charts right now, it's quite difficult to see which way this baby is going to go this morning, as it's still stuck exactly where it was yesrerday morning, on the 30m 200ema. Pressure does look down though, but this doesn't mean we won't get a London pop up, in fact I have no way of telling which way London will take it, not that I ever know really, but usually they take it counter momentum and then change direction fast.

I've got potential R levels on the 5m 200ema which is above the price, always a sign of bearishness, and this I have at 247 currently, with the 200sma at 244. Above that, the 15m 100sma is bearing down at 257, and I have a higher R level around 285 currently.

On the downside, my first level is the 50% fib anchored from the low of the 3rd August, and I have MA potential support on that as well. Below that I have S1 @ 198, and again some potential MA support there as well, and below that S2 @ 154, again with potential MA support. These will be my main levels of support today. Fibs on the downside are 61.8% @ 190, and 76.4% @ 155, and that one is right on top of S2, so that should be a strong potential level of support if the price gets there.

Have to wait and see what London does with it though.

My Pivots today are:

CP 268
R1 312
R2 382
R3 426

S1 198
S2 154
S3 084

Good luck!
  • #98
  • Aug 8, 2017 1:43am Aug 8, 2017 1:43am
Good Morning!

Still high probability the DAX will touch that red line somewhere in the near future (today?)

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Lets See!!
  • #99
  • Aug 8, 2017 1:55am Aug 8, 2017 1:55am
One thing to mention that I should have mentioned above, and that's the H3 ( quite a useful tf I find ) 100sma, which has curled underneath @ 220, and could well be an important support level. We'll know soon enough.
  • #100
  • Aug 8, 2017 2:41am Aug 8, 2017 2:41am
I've put the fibs on the upside now, and 38.2% sits on today's CP, so that could be strong R if it gets there . Above that I've got 50% at 281, 61.8% at 294, and 76.4% which is up on R1 at 312

Basically though it's mess y because there is strong S&R close to the price on both sides. With the 5m 200ema now broken though, the short term momentum has switched to the upside, but how far?
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