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Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

  • #61
  • Aug 3, 2017 7:47am Aug 3, 2017 7:47am
I said earlier that patience was required today, so don't worry, this thing will lift in the US session..if you look at the 5m tf, you can easily see that it's putting in higher lows. The 5m 200ema/sma has been the R all morning, but it should break soon.
  • #62
  • Aug 3, 2017 9:18am Aug 3, 2017 9:18am
Basically guys, it's just pissy old pa today. This is because there are just so many levels of resistance to get through, so it's had a real struggle keeping enough money on the table for it to push higher, and once it got as far north as the 15m 200ema, a lot of money was cashed in and back it came. The Dow is not helping things either, as that is straddling about with no clear direction either. Dax may yet break down and break through 12,100, or it may just fizzle out in expectation of tomorrow's NFP. Difficult day though, especially knowing where to take profits. Right now, it has found support on the 61.8% plus S1.

That'll be my last post today. Catch you tomorrow.
  • #63
  • Aug 3, 2017 10:24am Aug 3, 2017 10:24am
Ye PA just sideways today
  • #64
  • Aug 3, 2017 11:49am Aug 3, 2017 11:49am
my outlook to and post NFP

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practising coitus interruptus
  • #65
  • Aug 4, 2017 12:57am Aug 4, 2017 12:57am
Still have supports at 12144, 12100 and 12072. Upside resistance of 12170, 12184, 12200, 12250, 12300 max.

Probably down first, then up. Could be bullish later, as it looks like Inverted H&S on 4H, if right shoulder holds above 12100.
  • #66
  • Aug 4, 2017 1:57am Aug 4, 2017 1:57am
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practising coitus interruptus
  • #67
  • Aug 4, 2017 2:15am Aug 4, 2017 2:15am
short from 40, 1M engulfer at ema200, put stop to be now.
  • #68
  • Aug 4, 2017 2:23am Aug 4, 2017 2:23am
out be
  • #69
  • Aug 4, 2017 3:19am Aug 4, 2017 3:19am
We might not get much movement until the NFP release.
Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #70
  • Aug 4, 2017 7:35am Aug 4, 2017 7:35am
Quoting PariCovek
Still have supports at 12144, 12100 and 12072. Upside resistance of 12170, 12184, 12200, 12250, 12300 max. Probably down first, then up. Could be bullish later, as it looks like Inverted H&S on 4H, if right shoulder holds above 12100.
Looks like we got the bullish move. Nice
  • #71
  • Aug 4, 2017 1:43pm Aug 4, 2017 1:43pm
Quoting avibe
{image}
12600

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practising coitus interruptus
  • #72
  • Aug 7, 2017 1:38am Aug 7, 2017 1:38am
Good morning !

After Friday's rally, what have we in store today I wonder.

Beginning with the Daily tf, I did say last week that I thought the Dax would head up towards the 100sma @ 520, so as of now it is part way there. The trend line comes through @ 446 as it stands right now, so the trend line could be a strong level of R if it gets there.

On Friday, price found R on the 100sma which I have at 312 currently, so it is still providing R. If it breaks to the upside, then the line level of R would I think be the H4 200ema @ 392, and then the 200sma @ 437. Will it continue to do so or send price back down? Not sure yet. I won't put S levels on yet, but today's fibs are 38.2% which sits just above today's CP. The 50% sits just below the 15m 200ema @ 226, and the 61.8% is at 202, right on top of the 15m 200sma

My pivot levels today are -

CP 245
S1 166
S2 047
S3 11,968

R1 365
R2 444
R3 564

Good luck. I'll post any updates as I see them.
  • #73
  • Aug 7, 2017 2:06am Aug 7, 2017 2:06am
R1 level looks like it could provide quite strong resistance first thing if the price gets there.

Dangerous area to trade in right now anyway, with potential strong R above, and plenty of big MAs running up beneath on the smaller tf, ie - 5 m and 15 m
  • #74
  • Aug 7, 2017 2:34am Aug 7, 2017 2:34am
Time And Price overrides all the squigley ma and oscillator lines, and from which direction can be determined. Any ma on a chart will inevitably be correct at some point obviously. This means that both time and price are actually the key, otherwise more commonly known generically as price action, which in fact is one and the same.
  • #75
  • Aug 7, 2017 2:55am Aug 7, 2017 2:55am
Quoting Landline
Time And Price overrides all the squigley ma and oscillator lines, and from which direction can be determined. Any ma on a chart will inevitably be correct at some point obviously. This means that both time and price are actually the key, otherwise more commonly known generically as price action, which in fact is one and the same.
I heard the expression PA being thrown around time and time again, yet I fail to understand the real meaning of it. It seems a little bit mistified to me, something that is the be and end all of trading, something that is the key to the kingdom of untold riches. Frankly, I have yet to see a "pure" PA trader (whatever it means) who is consistently profitable. Most people on FF dismiss indicators, you can see at least a dozen commenters on any thread that uses any kind of indicator claiming that all you need is "price" to be profitable.

Maybe you could shed some light on PA for me? Also, why do you think time plays a vital role in trading?

Please don't take this comment as an attack, I am merely curious about your take on the subject.
Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #76
  • Aug 7, 2017 2:58am Aug 7, 2017 2:58am
Quoting Landline
Time And Price overrides all the squigley ma and oscillator lines, and from which direction can be determined. Any ma on a chart will inevitably be correct at some point obviously. This means that both time and price are actually the key, otherwise more commonly known generically as price action, which in fact is one and the same.
By which I take it you do not use MAs. It depends very much which ones one uses, and which ones a trader has learnt to trust. So your observation is a gross generalization.

You also need to clarify exactly what you mean by Time and Price being the key. What exactly do you mean by this?
  • #77
  • Aug 7, 2017 3:20am Aug 7, 2017 3:20am
Ma and oscillator lines are generated by both time and price....not the other way round.

Therefore it is illogical to pay any attention to anything other than TAP.

Time is the x axis...y is the price axis. 2 separate elements. Now, when those 2 elements interact at a known s or r level for example, then trading interest should be heightened. This usually, so far as my trading is concerned, is cyclical, and in my case 4 "time periods" minimum need to have elapsed before a trade can be considered.

That's the brief explanation. I still maintain that ma's and oscillators are total nonsense btw, and are merely second hand indicators of what you're already seeing via the TAP
  • #78
  • Aug 7, 2017 3:37am Aug 7, 2017 3:37am
Quoting Landline
Ma and oscillator lines are generated by both time and price....not the other way round. Therefore it is illogical to pay any attention to anything other than TAP. Time is the x axis...y is the price axis. 2 separate elements. Now, when those 2 elements interact at a known s or r level for example, then trading interest should be heightened. This usually, so far as my trading is concerned, is cyclical, and in my case 4 "time periods" minimum need to have elapsed before a trade can be considered. That's the brief explanation. I still maintain that...
"Time is the x axis...y is the price axis. 2 separate elements." - Nonsense...what do you actually mean by this?

" Now, when those 2 elements interact at a known s or r level for example" - How do you define a known S or R level?

" and in my case 4 "time periods" minimum need to have elapsed" - What time periods..minute, hour, day? Again, without a more detailed explanation, this is just gobbledy gook.

" I still maintain that ma's and oscillators are total nonsense btw..." - If you have not learnt how to use them, then this is obviously the view that you have. For those traders who have, then the opposite is true.
  • #79
  • Aug 7, 2017 3:46am Aug 7, 2017 3:46am
Quoting cat
{quote} "Time is the x axis...y is the price axis. 2 separate elements." - Nonsense...what do you actually mean by this? " Now, when those 2 elements interact at a known s or r level for example" - How do you define a known S or R level? " and in my case 4 "time periods" minimum need to have elapsed" - What time periods..minute, hour, day? Again, without a more detailed explanation, this is just gobbledy gook. " I still maintain that ma's and oscillators are total nonsense btw..." - If you have not learnt how to use them, then this is obviously...
I was asked to explain, which I've done briefly. The fact that you take a negative view is down to you.

I'm not out on a mission to educate, but simply responded to a question asked of me, and as such have offered my view.

By all means, you stick to your sqigley ma's and oscillators, makes no difference to me, but some of the others may realise what I've said makes more sense and to investigate for themselves further.
  • #80
  • Aug 7, 2017 3:51am Aug 7, 2017 3:51am
Honestly, you just made the matter more confusing for me. I tend to be skeptical towards these vague explanations. If you make money with your approach however, just keep doing it I guess.

Edit: Because TFs are made of ticks within a pre-defined time period, I don't see the relevance of time in trading.
Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
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