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Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

  • #41
  • Aug 3, 2017 2:49am Aug 3, 2017 2:49am
Momentum is still down...all the big MAs on all the time frames from 20 seconds up are above the price, so bear that in mind, but those support levels are still there, my favourite being 12,085 to S2 at 12,074
  • #42
  • Aug 3, 2017 2:50am Aug 3, 2017 2:50am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Keeping it as a 15SL... If it breaks new lows, I'm out. But hoping it forms an Inverted H&S for now, and breaks bullish.
Out for -15. Will re-assess later, it actually looked like a bad trade once 160 failed and broke below 140. Will re-assess later.
  • #43
  • Aug 3, 2017 2:56am Aug 3, 2017 2:56am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Out for -15. Will re-assess later, it actually looked like a bad trade once 160 failed and broke below 140. Will re-assess later.
If you look at the 1m tf, when you see bearish candles like that beneath the 200ema, with down momentum, you don't want to be long. Trading with momentum is always best, unless there's clear confirmed support. Always best to move SL to BE in a situation like that
  • #44
  • Aug 3, 2017 3:10am Aug 3, 2017 3:10am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Out for -15. Will re-assess later, it actually looked like a bad trade once 160 failed and broke below 140. Will re-assess later.
Have tried a Long again at 12105. SL very tight at -10.
  • #45
  • Aug 3, 2017 3:11am Aug 3, 2017 3:11am
Price is definitely scared shitless of that 12,100 level isn't it?
  • #46
  • Aug 3, 2017 3:13am Aug 3, 2017 3:13am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Have tried a Long again at 12105. SL very tight at -10.
SL B/E, partial exit at 133.
  • #47
  • Aug 3, 2017 3:17am Aug 3, 2017 3:17am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} SL B/E, partial exit at 133.
Another partial exit at 140... Next targets are 160, then 177.
  • #48
  • Aug 3, 2017 3:20am Aug 3, 2017 3:20am
That's the bottom for me today. Fibs on the way up are:

38.2% - 165
50% - 186
61.8% - 207 ( on top of CP )
76.4% - 232 ( just below the H1 200ema )
  • #49
  • Aug 3, 2017 3:22am Aug 3, 2017 3:22am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Another partial exit at 140... Next targets are 160, then 177.
I wonder, why do you take partial exits? Isn't that hurts your bottom line? It just seems a little counterintuitive to me. You are esentially taking a full sized loss while reducing position size when you are right. Don't take it as an attack, I am just curious
Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #50
  • Aug 3, 2017 3:28am Aug 3, 2017 3:28am
Anyone long, there are several pretty strong R levels above today. The first is the 38.2% fib, which is on that medium trend line I mentioned abobe. Above that, the 50% has the 15 m 200ema just above at 194. So with this amount of R, it'll struggle, but if you're patient, it might get to the CP this morning. There should be short opps as well, but just bear in mind the 12,100 support, which is proving to be a very strong level, so far!! As it sits now on my charts, I do have support shaping up on the 20 sec and 1m time frames, which may sound like a joke to some people, but this is what I watch. Again, when trading against momentum like this, always move to BE quickly. I always do when I've got 20 pips in the bag.
  • #51
  • Edited 3:44am Aug 3, 2017 3:33am | Edited 3:44am
Quoting BBalazs
{quote} I wonder, why do you take partial exits? Isn't that hurts your bottom line? It just seems a little counterintuitive to me. You are esentially taking a full sized loss while reducing position size when you are right. Don't take it as an attack, I am just curious
Don't normally do this, just trialling a few things today, but as this still looks downtrend to me on higher TFs, I am a bit cautious of not taking some profit with these counter-trend trades. 15m and 5m is suggesting down to me now, might close these positions.
  • #52
  • Aug 3, 2017 4:27am Aug 3, 2017 4:27am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Don't normally do this, just trialling a few things today, but as this still looks downtrend to me on higher TFs, I am a bit cautious of not taking some profit with these counter-trend trades. 15m and 5m is suggesting down to me now, might close these positions.
Partial exit at 1H 200sma, and 5m 200sma, around 171.
Last bundle aiming for 12200, and SL at B/E.
  • #53
  • Aug 3, 2017 5:01am Aug 3, 2017 5:01am
Just getting away from the Dax, take a look at the Weekly Dow chart. The Dow has hit 22,000, and pundits are now saying 23,000, 24,000, or even higher. They may well be right, but remember, this is a pure speculative asset bubble, and in no way a reflection of the US economy, which remains incredibly weak. As technicians and traders, we need to be looking for signs of a potential top, and for me , the best one currently shows up on the weekly chart.

This MACD diversion is nowhere near confirmed, and the price can still rise quite a lot higher and the diversion will still be in place, but as long as this diversion exists, there is the potential for a Dow reversal, and this for me is a massive potential diversion patter. Keep an eye on it!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow div.png Size: 44 KB
  • #54
  • Aug 3, 2017 6:00am Aug 3, 2017 6:00am
Quoting cat
Just getting away from the Dax, take a look at the Weekly Dow chart. The Dow has hit 22,000, and pundits are now saying 23,000, 24,000, or even higher. They may well be right, but remember, this is a pure speculative asset bubble, and in no way a reflection of the US economy, which remains incredibly weak. As technicians and traders, we need to be looking for signs of a potential top, and for me , the best one currently shows up on the weekly chart. This MACD diversion is nowhere near confirmed, and the price can still rise quite a lot higher...
What makes you believe it is a potential top, I mean after all, any upward trend has a potential top, so what makes this one any different to any other potential top in your opinion?
  • #55
  • Aug 3, 2017 6:12am Aug 3, 2017 6:12am
Quoting Landline
{quote} What makes you believe it is a potential top, I mean after all, any upward trend has a potential top, so what makes this one any different to any other potential top in your opinion?
I didn't say it was a potential top, as you highlighted, I said we need to be looking out for signs of one. This developing diversion pattern is one of those, and as I said, it can and probably will go higher. MACD has only just crossed into positive, so for a typical, strong diversion pattern to work, Dow needs to rise higher now, taking MACD with it. Then, if it stalls and begins to come down, with a lower high on MACD, a MACD cross back into negative, or even a hint of one, would be a potentially very bearish signal.

I'm looking ahead, which as traders we always have to do.
  • #56
  • Aug 3, 2017 6:29am Aug 3, 2017 6:29am
Quoting cat
{quote} I didn't say it was a potential top, as you highlighted, I said we need to be looking out for signs of one. This developing diversion pattern is one of those, and as I said, it can and probably will go higher. MACD has only just crossed into positive, so for a typical, strong diversion pattern to work, Dow needs to rise higher now, taking MACD with it. Then, if it stalls and begins to come down, with a lower high on MACD, a MACD cross back into negative, or even a hint of one, would be a potentially very bearish signal. I'm looking ahead,...
OK...you explained your opinion...tks
  • #57
  • Aug 3, 2017 6:44am Aug 3, 2017 6:44am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Partial exit at 1H 200sma, and 5m 200sma, around 171. Last bundle aiming for 12200, and SL at B/E.
The rest closed at 140. PA giving me mixed signals, closing shop for now.
  • #58
  • Aug 3, 2017 7:12am Aug 3, 2017 7:12am
In keeping with the looking ahead philosophy, I am looking for any signs now of DAX weakness, based mainly on my Time and Price (TAP) principles of tradeable levels. Both my weekly and daily charts are now reasonably aligned in that respect, and I'll be looking for entry signals via H4. I'm targeting two tp levels ultimately...12365 and 12500. Correct stops and of course patience are key. I'll update if anything interesting happens.
  • #59
  • Edited 7:45am Aug 3, 2017 7:32am | Edited 7:45am
How I saw things this morning on the Dax from the London open. Sorry it's a bit of a strain on the eyes, and I won't be posting many charts, so bear with me.

This is the 1m time frame, so unless you also trade off of small time frames, then it's not too relevant. I actually enter trades on the 20 second, but use the 1m for trade confirmation, and the 20 sec for timing the trade. This chart pretty much captures my thinking in general, which is why I'm posting it, as there is the short, away from the 200ema with overall momentum behind it, which is why it fell so fast, and then the counter momentum trade once support on 12,100 had been confirmed. The first long entry opportunity was the riskiest by far, the second one less risky, and the third less risky again. Basically though, the first upward green arrow required the smallest stop loss.

ps, as it's a bit of a jumble, text bottom right says " 100 sma gets beneath to lift price ".

One thing I forgot to mention, and it's one of my favourite candles, is the ' death throe ' candles, and those who know me will have seen me draw attention to them before. these are sudden, big, aggressive candles into a level of suport or resistance, and when I see them, it is often a pretty good indication that a top or bottom has been reached. Look at that final strong negative candle into 1,200 support, which remember, we already knew was a very strong level of support. When that one close , I exited my position immediately, and began looking for a long opp, and all those lower stalks that you see as support held, then the break above the 20sma ( blue/red ) was a signal to go long, and by the way, counter trades like this, it's best not to enter on the first break and hold of the 20sma, but wherever you enter, the SL has to be well clear of the support level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dac im open.png Size: 76 KB
  • #60
  • Aug 3, 2017 7:38am Aug 3, 2017 7:38am
It hit a perfect rejection at 180 at its peak, on the 30m 200sma.
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