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Attachments: Coppock Strategy
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Coppock Strategy

S GBPUSD 2.0043.

That is the only signal for this coming sunday. AMazing how the previous GBP signals have worked out (see the GBPCHF & GBPCAD signals).

Honestly, I dont know what to think of this signal to sell GBPUSD. The USD is so weak and and pair has dropped over 200 pips over the last 3 days, that I dont expect much from it. I will go with .2 lots and keep my TP close. As far as the stop is concerned it shouldn't be 2 far away if the indicator crosses up.

Happy pips
  • Post #62
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:11pm Sep 15, 2007 10:48pm | Edited 11:11pm
Quoting rck66

Venturess, would u mind sharing how u use the mom indictr w/ this strategy to determine retracmts? I went to the Auslanco thread, but it has a "million" post and I dont have the time to go thru each one of them.
Here's the definition in wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Momentum_(technical_analysis)

Here's what Auslanco says:
Quote
Momentum:
I use the momentum indicator to catch the retracements after a big sudden price fall or rise. This indicator is accurate only on trending markets with high volumes. this is a very tricky indicator. I started using this indicator after studying it for almost 1 year on my demo account. Therefore it's not recommended for newbies to catch the retracement using this indicator as this could kill your account since you are going against the trend. You can find more info on how to use the momentum indicator on the other GBP/JPY analysis thread. Once you learn & confident on this indicator, it can be very useful to maximize your profits. For the last week 40% (over 1000 pips) of my profits came from this indicator.
The setting is 10 Close plus I also use the 5SMA indicator(also per Auslanco) to help identify the size of the retrace. I start with the smallest time frame, i.e. 5m chart. The pair is going up but if the momentum indicator is pointing sharply down, one may expect the price to retrace to the 5SMA before resuming its trend for e.g. However, the more reliable TF would be 30m and 1H. The price will often retrace to 30M and 1H. 4H retracements often occur when the trend is very strong to gather more strength to continue on.

The sharpness of the bent and the direction of the indicator pointing is important. Usually 60 degrees or more determines a good momentum and it does not necessarily have to cross the 0 line. You may expect a 1H 5SMA retrace and not a 4H 5SMA retrace because the 1H Chart Momentum is bearish yet the 4H Momentum is still bullish. So for a 4H retrace to 5SMA you are looking for the 4H Momentum to turn bearish.

I hope this explains how I use this indicator. If there's anyone else here who uses it and can add to it, please do so. I'm learning like most FF members
Quoting Venturess from the post above:

The setting is 10 Close plus I also use the 5SMA indicator(also per Auslanco) to help identify the size of the retrace. I start with the smallest time frame, i.e. 5m chart. The pair is going up but if the momentum indicator is pointing sharply down, one may expect the price to retrace to the 5SMA before resuming its trend for e.g. However, the more reliable TF would be 30m and 1H. The price will often retrace to 30M and 1H. 4H retracements often occur when the trend is very strong to gather more strength to continue on.

The sharpness of the bent and the direction of the indicator pointing is important. Usually 60 degrees or more determines a good momentum and it does not necessarily have to cross the 0 line. You may expect a 1H 5SMA retrace and not a 4H 5SMA retrace because the 1H Chart Momentum is bearish yet the 4H Momentum is still bullish. So for a 4H retrace to 5SMA you are looking for the 4H Momentum to turn bearish.

Kind of lost me there Venturess. You mentioned that the price will often retrace to 30M and 1H. Will retrace to what? the 5SMA? And still how does this helps you stay in the trade longer or to determine that the trade will keep going in your favor. If you can post a chart, even in DOC format, it will help.

Thanks
Hi rck66,

Yes it is retrace to 5SMA. I will look for examples and post charts as requested.

I also use VT charts which give me the QQE indicator which also helps in identifying trend changes using 4H and daily TFs.

But for GFT the Coppock is truly a great tool in confirming trend continuation

After blowing 2 accounts, I am extremely cautious and as soon as I see the momentum turn in the opposite direction, I tend to close my positions until I get confirmation of continuation via the bounce off of the 5SMA towards the prevailing trend.

This has served me well so far.
I apologise but just realized that the Microsoft Office suite just expired on my new laptop so cannot post charts as yet as you suggested rck66. Will subscribe later today.

In the meantime, please check this post here for an example courtesy of shahroodi:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=27622
The GBPUSD signal from last night worked out better than I expected. So far it has given almost 100 pips. NOt bad.
Thank you for that signal. I closed for 85 pips! How far do you see it going down...or do you think it will range for a bit until tomorrow's FED rate announcement?

Quoting rck66
The GBPUSD signal from last night worked out better than I expected. So far it has given almost 100 pips. NOt bad.
Venturess, I think the market will trade range until the announcement tomorrow, if you haven't gotten out place a stop to lock in some profits.
My take is that if the bank lowers the interest rate, the USD will tank some more. What is your take?
I agree although it depends on the amount of cut. If 25 basis points, then the market has already priced this in.

If there is a rate cut, stocks should fly but again depending on the rate before sanity prevails again.

Have already gotten out of this trade with a profit and will remain on the sidelines until after rate announcement.

Will be a very interesting day tomorrow.

Quoting rck66
Venturess, I think the market will trade range until the announcement tomorrow, if you haven't gotten out place a stop to lock in some profits.
My take is that if the bank lowers the interest rate, the USD will tank some more. What is your take?
the signal that i saw yesterday was the short gbpjpy 230.07 with also a 100 pip move, at this point is difficult to decide to close the trade or let it run, any comments?
No signals tonight, but there may be a few coming up in the next couple of days.
A recap of last week: (You will see the signals and next to it the maximum positive movement)

Todays signals (9/10/07)
B Aud Chf 9839 (Highest high 1.0038) Total Pips: +199
B Audjpy 9425 (Highest high 97.53) Total Pips: +328
B Chf Jpy 9615 (Highest high 97.32) TP: +117
B Eur Aud 1.6861 (i Will Not Take This Trade) Never triggered
S Eurchf 1.6326 (nor This One) Never triggered
B Eurgbp 6819 (Highest high: 6966) TP: +147
B Eurjpy 157.48 (Highest high 160.46) TP: +298
S Gbpchf 2.4030 (i Am In This Trade, The Triggered Was Yesterday)
Lowest low: 2.3620 TP: +410
B Gbpjpy 2.3167 (Highest high: 234.77) TP: +310
B Nzdusd 7001 (Highest High: 7185) TP: +184
Today (9/11/07) signals
Todays signals are:

S AUDNZD @1770 (Lowest low: 1.1684) TP: +86
B CADJPY 109.95 (Highest high: 112.53) TP:+258
B GBPCHF 2.4204 Never triggered
S GBPNZD 2.8710 (Lowest low: 2.7968) TP: +742
B NZDCHF 8425 (Highest High: 8522) TP: +97
B NZD JPY 8096 (Highest high: 8293) TP: +197

Today (9/12/07) signals B AUDNZD 1.1897 (I will not take the signal, but if you do dont expect to run that much; at least that is my feeling) Never triggered
S GBPCAD 2.1010 (Lowest low: 2.0452) TP: +558
S GBPJPY 230.91 (I wouldn't give much to this one either as Japan is facing a political crisis). (Lowest low: 2.2874) TP:+217


Tonight's signals (9/13/07)There is only 1 signal:

S GBPJPY @ 2.3091. This signal is from yesterday and it hasn't been triggered and the indicator hasn't crossed up. So still valid, even though I would place a close stop, perhaps using another strategy or S/R and a target not 2 far away. See result above


So total positive pips from last week signals: 4,148. I had to add it twice cuz i couldn't beleive it.

Even if we capture half of that move that would have been over 2000 pips in ONE WEEK.

Definitely looking forward to the next signals.
Quoting blanca
the signal that i saw yesterday was the short gbpjpy 230.07 with also a 100 pip move, at this point is difficult to decide to close the trade or let it run, any comments?

Blanca, if you are on the trade, and you have a stop loss in place I would recommend to bring it to b/e at least. you have a positive run already of over 100 pips so dont get greedy. Or use a trailing stop with a trail of 50-70 pips. I beleive the pair might go lower, but then again I have been wrong many times before.

One thing I can tell you that I beleive is probable: IF tomorrow stock market dives, either because there is no rate cut or the statement is not what they were expecting, the JPY and the CHF could be the beneficiaries of such move as it has been in the last few weeks. Then again, correlations can change w/out warning. That is why I dont use them much.
hi there,

it's look sound interesting, i would really like to test it.

regard

ak

Quoting rck66
I will post my signals given from the coppock strategy that I have developed.
If enough people are interested I can post the strategy as well as the code for the indicator (in CTL Language), for people who use GFT or maybe someone can program it in another language. Anyways here are the signals:

ACTION PAIR ENTRY PRICE TARGET
SELL NZDCAD .7189 .7106
SELL NZDJPY 78.39 77.53
BUY USDCAD 1.0580 106.52
SELL USDCHF 1.2010 1.1953
SELL CADJPY 108.81 108.39
SELL NZDCHF .8211 .8159
SELL NZDUSD .6823 .6744
SELL USDJPY 114.69 114.04
SELL CADCHF 1.1400 1.1332

TARGETS are areas where you can get out of all of your positions or part of it. I am not posting stops as everyone's risk tolerance is different, but you shouldn't have to give it more than 100-150 pips.
This is a swing trading system.
After backtesting for about 3-4 years the data on my GFT charts I can see that this systems works around 80% of the time, sometimes more on most pairs.
I will post results.
akFX1
Quoting anand01
hi there,

it's look sound interesting, i would really like to test it.

regard

ak

feel free to ask any question if u dont understand anand01
hi,

rck66,

how do you filter this btw the blue lines

or

what is the basic exit rule?

thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.jpg Size: 138 KB
Somehow 1 signal slipped by

S EURCHF 1.6429
Quoting watchout4me
hi,

rck66,

how do you filter this btw the blue lines

or

what is the basic exit rule?

thanks
Let me talk about my exit rules, and keep in mind that this is for me as all of you who follow a learning process. I came across this indicator researching another website and from all the indicators that I was able to download, there were a few that I could understand and was worthwhile backtesting.

It took me over a month to do all the backtesting and enter it on the comp. I have attached the spreadsheet for EURUSD on a previous post. That was my test and that is the test I have done on another 27 or so pairs.

So as far as my exit is concerned, I go by the averages. In the case of the EURUSD when the signal was triggered you should have entered around 10 pips or so below the low of the bar that triggered the signal (remember that the signal to sell is triggered when the indicator crosses & closes below the zero line and viceversa for buys). So ur entry should have been around 1.3789. Four days later the pair hit a low of 1.3608 for about 180 pips profit.

Honestly, since nobody knows what is going to happen in the next minute, if u had taken the short trade @ 1.3789, four days later u r sitting with 180 pips profit, would u have left it go all the way up to 1.3838? Did anybody knew it was going to collapse below 1.3400? I didn't. So my solution to the problem is to enter all lots at once and then scale out your exits. Unless you have a mega account size, I hope you are trading mini lots. So you could have entered, let's say .5 lots and exit at different intervals, say after 30 pips profit .1 lot, then after 50-60 another .1 lot, you get the idea.

All I have is avgs of what has been the maximum favorable or positive movment up or down. In this case was about 430 pips in 3 weeks, but the time previous to that was only 114 pips like in another 3 weeks timeframe.

So, while u want to catch a 400 pips movement in your favor, it is understandable that the majority of the moves will not go that far. If after getting out @ intervals you decide to leave 1 or a couple of mini lots and trail it, then is up to you.

The way I did my research is in the case of buy (sell is reversed): When did the indicator crossed above 0? that bar is the signal bar, I went long 10 pips + the spread above the high of that bar and I measured the highest point walking forward before the indicator crossed down and gave me a sell signal and that signal was triggered.

Hope this answers the question.
The reason why I give at least 10 pips from the high or the low of the signal bar can be seen from the signal given yesterday to S EURCHF.

It went 9 pips under the low of yesterday, before it had a huge reversal today. The signal will most likely be cancelled as the indicator has crossed back to positive territory and will finish today in positive territory.
Twosignals tonight:
B CADCHF 1.1692
B USDJPY 116.52 YES BELEIVE IT OR NOT, EVEN THOUGH I PROB WOULDN'T GIVE IT MUCH BUT I HAVE BEEN WRONG BEFORE.
Why noy a long signal on the EUR/CHF ?
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