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Is random really random? 231 replies

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Do you believe this market is random?

Quoting Gwan
if price want to go from 1 to 5, it will pass 2,3,4, before it can reach 5 this rule it self will limit whatever randomness we will find.
exctly what im saying. Everything must follow the rules and laws it exist in. So there are parameters to the randomness that have a beginning and end, therefore making it not random since its actually a slave to the rules of the situation it exist in.
The Meek Shall Inherit The Earth...
Hell no!
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
Price reacts to certain areas for a reason.
Banks and hedge funds buy and sell currencies, these entities provide order flow which moves price. Looking at round numbers, longer term charts, like the daily and weekly. You can see areas that are respected and patterns that repeat themselves over and over. So, movements can be predicted fairly accurately with good technical skills and knowledge. There is dynamics to price movements and you can generally rely on the knowledge of these dynamics along with good
discipline to have a good idea where price is headed.
I like to look at clean charts with no indicators, it lets me see clearer. What I am trying to say is price fluctuates because of order flow, if you can identify
pivot points, strong areas, and momentum of buying and selling. You can begin to have an idea of likely direction. There is no certainties, but probabilities.
  • Post #46
  • Quote
  • Edited 2:41pm Nov 6, 2013 12:57pm | Edited 2:41pm
This is a very difficult question to answer convincingly but I will have a go.

The market is not random and you can find plenty of evidence to support this, a quick google search provides copious amounts of material debunking myths like the EMH and other academic theories trying to quantify the unquantifiable. However, the basis for this conclusion is understandable due to the frustrating reality which is the market is very difficult to predict. Without making it out to be more than it is and describing the market as some form of deity, put simply, it's just lots of different people doing lots of different types of transactions collectively, that's it. It's very hard to anticipate these transactions because they are so varied in size, quantity and reason... and for these reasons and through a process of exasperation, people conclude it's something more than this.
Quoting Porkpie
Essentially, the market is a mirror of human behaviour which at times is seemingly random and chaotic. However, once you put humans under particular types of stress, then the behaviour becomes more predictable. To illustrate this, a fire alarm goes off in the cinema, what are most people likely to do? With the market, a news item is positive for for the $, the market spikes showing $ strength what are people most likely to do? Or the market makes a yearly high, what are most people likely to do? Couple this with the socio-economic engineering by...
I like this explanation. I agree, if you know what to look for, where and when to look it becomes less random.
Quoting diceman555
I would like to have a poll on this topic but not sure how to do that. DO YOU BELIEVE THIS MARKET IS RANDOM , ????
Ben Graham: "in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine"

Obviously the market in the long-term will reflect fundamentals, but in the short-term it is rather random.
Randomness doesnt exist in universe.
even the outcome of Dice and coin toss is not random.

As far as the cause and effect law of universe holds true , nothing is random.
Quoting Custos
{quote} Ben Graham: "in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine" Obviously the market in the long-term will reflect fundamentals, but in the short-term it is rather random.
I completely disagree...
its like foundation or building blocks are completely random...but when u combine those random building blocks you create pattern out of it.

You cant create order out of chaos.
Quoting ronaleo10
Randomness doesnt exist in universe. even the outcome of Dice and coin toss is not random. As far as the cause and effect law of universe holds true , nothing is random.
you should read some steven hawking books, my friend. The universe has three main features, that helped define its shape: randomness, gravity and imperfection.
With these inputs, computer models show you how galaxies developed out of randomly distributed matter and energy. It always strikes me how some people can make so many unqualified statements without a bit of research. But I guess that's how we grow up, right?
Quoting Custos
{quote} you should read some steven hawking books, my friend. The universe has three main features, that helped define its shape: randomness, gravity and imperfection. With these inputs, computer models show you how galaxies developed out of randomly distributed matter and energy. It always strikes me how some people can make so many unqualified statements without a bit of research. But I guess that's how we grow up, right?


Well it will take a very long debate and time to prove my point ....and i am not interested in that...
You can believe what you want .

I would like to post thought provoking quote by french mathematician , on whose principal the chaos theory was formed by Edward norton lorenz.

If we knew exactly the laws of nature and the situation of the universe at the initial moment, we could predict exactly the situation of the same universe at a succeeding moment.
Henri Poincare
Quoting Custos
{quote} you should read some steven hawking books, my friend. The universe has three main features, that helped define its shape: randomness, gravity and imperfection. With these inputs, computer models show you how galaxies developed out of randomly distributed matter and energy. It always strikes me how some people can make so many unqualified statements without a bit of research. But I guess that's how we grow up, right?
research into what? into the mind of stupid people? if 1 million scientists say something that doesn't make it right. that is called common sence and it is derived from errors of judgement which have been made in the past. you can't predict the trajectory of some sub-particle? so what? newtonian physics can predict a lot of shit. people can predict a lot of shit also. custos when you go ahead and push your statistics agenda and philosophy please don't call it science. it's philosophy and in some cases is religion. i'm out.
Quoting ronaleo10
{quote} If we knew exactly the laws of nature and the situation of the universe at the initial moment, we could predict exactly the situation of the same universe at a succeeding moment.[/url] Henri Poincare
And Einstein came along to upset that apple cart...
Quoting diceman555
I would like to have a poll on this topic

Why don't you add a poll then?
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} research into what? into the mind of stupid people?
well, if you think stephen hawking's work is stupid then you are beyond help
Quoting deltatrade
if 1 million scientists say something that doesn't make it right.
it makes it right until one can disprove them. That's what science is about.
Quoting deltatrade
custos when you go ahead and push your statistics agenda and philosophy please don't call it science.
I am not sure where I pushed my statistics agenda and I called science what a leading theoretical physicist says, not my humble attempts.
Quoting numbnuts
In the short term I believe price is close enough to random that any predictability is short lived. If price really moves in patterns, or waves, those patterns will be quickly cashed in on and smashed by big money traders until randomness returns. Short term order flow is driven not so much by forex speculators but also by foreign trade, importers/exporters settling accounts and purchasing supplies, financial institutions and investors trading $$$ for stocks, bonds etc. Most players in the currency market can't even spell forex. If some japanese...

Agreed.
Quoting Custos
{quote} well, if you think stephen hawking's work is stupid then you are beyond help {quote}
did hawking discover something extraorinary?no. he's a puppet in a wheel chair. i'd go with einstein on the nature of the deterministic universe. he did not even had a tv and he predicted something fantastic. and also the role of imagination in making new discoveries in science.
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} did hawking discover something extraorinary?no. he's a puppet in a wheel chair. i'd go with einstein on the nature of the deterministic universe. he did not even had a tv and he predicted something fantastic. and also the role of imagination in making new discoveries in science.
Considering Stephen Hawking and Einstein's incredible high IQs, I doubt any of us here is in a position to fully judge their lifework.

I can say one thing though. All the electronic stuff we take for granted today would not exist without quantum mechanics, which goes directly against Einstein's core belief on a universe ruled by deterministic laws. This discussion being via internet would not be possible were Einstein right and Bohr wrong.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
Quoting vox dei
{quote} All the electronic stuff we take for granted today would not exist without quantum mechanics, which goes directly against Einstein's core belief on a universe ruled by deterministic laws.
the internet and electronics stuff work . if the universe was truly random it would not be so. also it would be wiser to respect results and not iq. you can surely expect an iq to perform but what if a lower intelect is more efficient you have to respect that.
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