Do you believe this market is random?

I would like to have a poll on this topic but not sure how to do that.

DO YOU BELIEVE THIS MARKET IS RANDOM , ????

say as you see,

disagree,fight,insult ,every opinion is welcome.

i believe price randomly travels to structured points

I don't believe its totally random, price moves for a reason. Banks and funds buying and selling currencies at certain price levels, causes price movements and patterns that repeat themselves over time as a result of the order flow.

Though over-all its a business of probabilities and confluence, to be able to determine areas of confluence where price likely will react to.

I suppose. I definitely believe that trying to predict where price will go and when it will get there is silliness.

so do you believe that these patterns are repeating and the order flow is static ? when is the market random ?

so would you say that it is not random ,the problem being we are not informed enough to determine an outcome ?

I'm certainly not even close to being qualified to really speak on the matter, but in my experience, there is just no proven method of predicting where price will go and when it will get there. Much like psychic ability, I haven't seen any real proof that it really exists. So I guess in that sense, it is random, or at the least, MOSTLY unpredictable.

Just like lizard, i have no qualifications or back ground that shows i have any idea what im talking about but I dont think anything is random Because even when if something happens randomly it still abides by the laws of (physics or whatever you want to call it) of the situation its happening in. i dont know if i worded that correctly but if things were truly random we could be seeing oragnes, bikes, cars and candles on our charts.... when really we can only see candles that may appear to move randomly but really abide to the rules of the chart they are plotted on.

another example if things were truly random, two humans mate and have a dog or some other mammal.

The currency market is highly predictable and follows an order that is found in nature and other major disciplines. By knowing this order you can predict a currencies price just as certain as you can predict what time the sun is coming up and going down. You can be 100% certain that the currency market will repeat itself in a systematic and predictable way every time it opens, during all four of the major markets. Market prices reveal structural design that in turn reflects a basic harmony found in nature. A good system will be based upon fixed laws, order and a method that is repeatable and predictable. Every discipline has an order. Learn the rules of a good system, gain the wisdom and then you become a master trader. It takes years to become a master no matter what your doing and, of course, there is a price that has to be paid. And that is the token of time. Martin Fisher said, "Knowledge is the process of gathering the facts, and wisdom lies in theri simplification." Wisdom is knowing what to do next and the true function of wisdom is order. Thinking that the market is in chaos or random leads only to confusion and loss of hard earned capital.

Fine, let's go with that. I can predict with fair certainty that the sun will rise at 6am* tomorrow morning.
Can you say with fair certainty where EUR/USD (or any currency pair) will be @ 6am tomorrow morning ?
*depending on your time zone

And if I can be 100% certain that the currency market will repeat itself you should be able to tell
me precisely where (any) currency pair will be tomorrow @ 6am, just as surely as the sun rises. Right ?

BTW....... (and just for the sake of argument, because that's how differences are resolved)
You think that price is both random AND structured ? Or perhaps you could elaborate further.

Knowing what time the sun will rise is a little different from knowing where the price of EUR/USD will be at 06:00. A currency price is a little more involved, but similar to the sun, in that we know when the price action will begin just as we can predict with 100% accuracy where the sun will rise and even if the sun can't be seen, like the EUR/USD, we can be certain it is there. My point being that by following the rules trading becomes more profitable because you begin to see the same patterns emerging over and over. I once read an article about some of the influences that seem to interfere with the laws of trading -

For any currency trade we may undertake, we must articulate clear rules for fulfilling the goals we set out for ourselves. Should we neglect these rules, sooner or later we will fail to achieve what we set out to do. The truth of these statements ought to be self-evident. Yet time and again, we find ourselves confounded by our emotional whims, discarding our well-considered blueprints to recklessly pursue that which we desire.

In no other activity is this tendency more evident than the financial markets, fueled as they are by human greed. Yet, markets only thrive on greed. Without it, they would cease to exist. The irony, of course, is that there must be logical rules in place such that one can profit from the greed-fueled movements of the market. In trading, greed and reason are made to cohabit, strange bedfellows in the pursuit of material wealth. This irony becomes perverse when we consider that this pursuit is motivated by the desire to free oneself from the material scarcity that gives rise to greed in the first place. More often than not, however, we trade simply because we desire to retrieve our precious freedom from the devil that we call "work."

We can beat the devil. But we cannot do it in a haphazard way. We must have a logical trading plan in place, and the resolve to subordinate our greed to reason. This can only be accomplished by obeying clearly defined trading rules."

Your logic is so unfathomable that I can't (don't want) to argue.

I'm sorry; I totally don't understand that statement though. We know with 100% accuracy when the price
action will begin ?? Does that tell us where price will go ?? And what does this have to do with randomness ??

(these are just things to ponder 'cuz I was just bored for a minute)

All the best

lol wut

no......when you run out of buyers than the sellers are in control. Otherwise your chart would be a scatter plot - that's random - like a roulette wheel. Your question is to what end can it be predicted based on the past. Again - when you run out of buyers than the sellers are in control . that is why trend strength and hoping your on for the ride until people run out of buying or selling power is paramount in trading or any type of buying or selling. That is why I feel its too hard - for me at least - to trade a lower time frame...you can't see the wave coming of buyers of the higher time frame until your as s is run over.

yes, its random in the surface. But for the top 5% its not, they could see its cycles, pattern and trends..for the very obvious reason the FX market keeps growing and now its more or less $ 6T market, its a huge market...a really a land flowing of milk and honey...to the deserving FX Traders.....work smartly....and hard to see the glimpse of the promise land.

The market isn´t random but "chaotic" - isn´t that the status quo among retailers these days?

its very hard to put into words this understanding.but i believe the market has built in structure as does everything in our world.the random way in which this happens is our perspective of time.

london opening so will reply you later slim

In the short term I believe price is close enough to random that any predictability is short lived.
If price really moves in patterns, or waves, those patterns will be quickly cashed in on and smashed by big money traders until randomness returns.

Short term order flow is driven not so much by forex speculators but also by foreign trade, importers/exporters settling accounts and purchasing supplies, financial institutions and investors trading $$$ for stocks, bonds etc. Most players in the currency market can't even spell forex. If some japanese purchasing manager decides to flatten the account with an australian supplier he is unlikely to take notice of any technical levels to do this, he is more likely to do it right after his morning shit. Whether that cash flow in AUD/JPY occurs in this 15m candle or the next depends on whether he opted for the steak or the vindaloo last night.

In the medium to long term it is different, here the value of each nations currency is intrinsically linked to various economic factors which can often be foreseen and forecasted with some accuracy. If you doubt this just look at a long term (5+ years) chart of any currency and try to link the price action you see to macroeconomic events which occurred in that period. This should take you about 30 seconds. Then ask yourself if there is any way those macroeconomic events, or an immediate continuation of those events, could have been predicted. The answer should be obvious.