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Is random really random? 231 replies

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Attachments: Do you believe this market is random?
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Do you believe this market is random?

Lol Ok, 60minuteman, maybe the market is random and we are all lucky and some are just luckier.

I don't listen to one of those economist, most of them are paid to further the status quo nothing else. The world economy is at a point now where it has never been, everything is an experiment in greed and no body knows how it's going to fall. The best they can do is hope it doesn't fall further than the 1930s. Remember the "trickle" down theory that is tearing the world apart now, well guess what, an economist proposed that hog wash.

The truth of the matter is, I don't want to say to much because I don't want to share any of my research on any forum at the moment. But let me ask you a question, how many winning trades in a row would it take to convinced you that the market is not random? 20,030,40? What trading style do you use? why would you even use one anyway, why not just flip a coin. Why does a the market have structure if it's random, like a trend for example, why does the banks sell into buying and buy into selling? Why if it's random.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
Quoting saneblane
Lol Ok, 60minuteman, maybe the market is random and we are all lucky and some are just luckier.
luck would play a part either way, random or not... but your thinking is wrong if you think the only way to make money is by being right, you can make massive profits from a low win rate, this has been proven.

tradewith60
Quoting diceman555
{quote} Again totally agree.concidring the post by dkrock .the unknown variables.thats why i take out insurance .in the case of trading that my stops.you see having high probability of the start point and end point the unkown variables being the drunk got nocked down by a car he gets taken two hundred miles for spinal surgery before he eventually gets home.my insurance covers me (stop).fortunatly more often than not he completes his journey .
and Again Im Agree with you Price Always Have Target (( Home at Drunken Man example )) but Sometimes Something may happen Which we see theme as randomness like accident example but at The End Price Must Reach to its Target And Then Other move.
Always Cycle of Price Must Complete itself Then Start of New Cycle
You Must Love CandleSticks
yes,I believe it's random
I tried most strategy and end up like 50% win

to increase more win I need to add more orders into it when price against me (ex. grid)
enter 1 order not enough for me
5%
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} luck would play a part either way, random or not... but your thinking is wrong if you think the only way to make money is by being right, you can make massive profits from a low win rate, this has been proven.
That's a whole other issue. A person with a higher with rate with a RR of 1:1 would always trump someone with a lower win rate with a RR 1:1. We are not talking about how much you can be right and still make money, I am trying to figure out, how many winning trades in a row would it take you to acknowledge that you simple don't know enough or that you dont have enough information. You have Algos that are winning everyday for years while trading millions of trade a day, in a random market would such a thing be possible?
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
Quoting EliteNatt
yes,I believe it's random I tried most strategy and end up like 50% win to increase more win I need to add more orders into it when price against me
First off all Change The way You locking at Market
Second,i nearly Tried all Systems in The World and Yes They were all 50-50 or i say lesser 40-60 but When i Think differently and i changed the way to lock Market
Everything have changed to me and From now i say to you Indicators or Systems you see in FF or any other place are not all bad but you Must Know which period for Each indicator you should use in current market and You need to know what you want from that indicator !
Change The Way you locking at Market Then you will be Succesfull
You Must Love CandleSticks
Quoting saneblane
{quote} That's a whole other issue. A person with a higher with rate with a RR of 1:1 would always trump someone with a lower win rate with a RR 1:1. We are not talking about how much you can be right and still make money, I am trying to figure out, how many winning trades in a row would it take you to acknowledge that you simple don't know enough or that you dont have enough information. You have Algos that are winning everyday for years while trading millions of trade a day, in a random market would such a thing be possible?
you just play the odds and probabilities in a random market, you use other techniques to make profit instead of thinking you can predict future movements based on the past.
tradewith60
no
Quoting justin7
no
best reply ever in the history of FF
tradewith60
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} best reply ever in the history of FF
: ))
You Must Love CandleSticks
I think it's been said enough over and over... No One know the future. Thousands of system in forex factory tried to "claim" the future but non have ever succeed.

All the wins are just lucky or the lose are just bad luck. You have no real proof explanation on why your order lose or win. It's just LUCK.

That's why many teaching have emphasize on "The money management (risk/reward)" instead of strategy to be "right"

Because MM is what over come bad luck, and profit in good luck. This random topic never have a winner because there still exist people who think they can "draw out the future like (IF you go to school to become a doctor, you will work as a doctor and you will get money). What they don't know the reason why those future come true , you become doctor because it's only YOU!!! not other people interfer with your plan.

The market have million of random emotion people that interfere with YOU and want to take YOUR money.... you are a one man army. You can't HOPE to see all your enemies action especially you don't even face them face to face....

I have said before : everyone know the market is random. but few people don't like to admit it..... If you don't see the future it's random.

You say you know entry/starting point and endpoint... but REALLY?...how do you know.. if you enter ... at 1.3500 and you will exist ... at 1.4000
The Random market may never let you exit at 1.4000..... you can't control the price to move to 1.4000....so you have to trust on faith and luck to happen ...for you to go from 1.3500 to 1.4000..
Quoting victor_ray
I think it's been said enough over and over... No One know the future. Thousands of system in forex factory tried to "claim" the future but non have ever succeed...

What bothers me is...
What Money M and/or Risk M will you use to help you?
Hm...

(You don’t see the future, range, how big orders will came in...)
But how will MM/RM help you?
And those things can also delude you just like random/non-random!
It’s very delicate...

You can answer via p.m.
Thank you!
Quoting Legionary
{quote} What bothers me is... What Money M and/or Risk M will you use to help you? Hm... (You don’t see the future, range, how big orders will came in...) But how will MM/RM help you? And those things can also delude you just like random/non-random! It’s very delicate... You can answer via p.m. Thank you!
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-is...anagement.html
tradewith60
By the way, even with 50/50 chance, the probability of winning 20 trades in a row is 1/1million.

So, considering that there are so many traders trading and trades being taken everyday, perhaps it is no surprise that there are a few millionaires? It is like the old saying, in every casino, on every given day there will be one or two who win 20 hands in a row at blackjack... but then there is those who lose 20 hands in a row as well...

And I am not saying that the market is equiprobability. It probably still is random (because you can't predict the exact future outcome with certainty no matter how much information you have) but with better skills you might be able to tell the underlying probability distribution and tilt the odds to your favour.
Build good relationships with others.
Quoting saneblane
Lol Ok, 60minuteman, maybe the market is random and we are all lucky and some are just luckier. I don't listen to one of those economist, most of them are paid to further the status quo nothing else. The world economy is at a point now where it has never been, everything is an experiment in greed and no body knows how it's going to fall. The best they can do is hope it doesn't fall further than the 1930s. Remember the "trickle" down theory that is tearing the world apart now, well guess what, an economist proposed that hog wash. The truth of the...
and quoting the number of 'winners' doesn't mean anything.

If I set my stop loss at 1000 pips and take profit at 1 pip I can make 999 profitable trades for every 1 loser even in an equiprobability scenario.

*i don't believe it's equiprobability but this is just to illustrate a point.

and randomness doesn't mean there cannot be a trend (a deterministic component) or a structure (formed by chance or a matter of perspective really)... these things form even in equiprobability random walks.

To convince me that it is not random, you will have to correctly predict the colour (and ideally the size) of the next bar for a randomly selected bar for say 50 bars on 50 different days -> if you can do that you'll convince me it's not random, but even then it's still a tentative thing; once you fail to do it for a few times the theory falls apart. If you get > 35 of them right, then you probably have a good grasp of the underlying distribution for the randomness, but it is still random (if not why wouldn't you get 100% right?). You could argue that hey, it is deterministic just that I am not knowledgable enough to know the mechanism; but that is a more far-fetched conclusion that implies skills of predicting the future given past data with 100% certainty, so the onus is on you to prove your hypothesis and disprove the null hypothesis of randomness. Then again if anyone can do that he/she would probably have won the nobel prize by now or be the richest person in the world.
Build good relationships with others.
Quoting Legionary
{quote} What bothers me is... What Money M and/or Risk M will you use to help you? Hm... (You don’t see the future, range, how big orders will came in...) But how will MM/RM help you? And those things can also delude you just like random/non-random! It’s very delicate... You can answer via p.m. Thank you!
The only way to beat random forever is to "have unlimited money" AND have zero stoploss AND you just wait forever until your losing price go back to profit.

Now SADLY the newbie usually don't unlimited money because majority is poor. So due to lack of money you have to play small leverage. Sorry that's the way it has to be.

A great quote from Warren Buffett you should take into consideration:

“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.” This is a great criterion in choosing a company to buy. Only buy stock in a company that will thrive, grow, and excel in the foreseeable future regardless of stock price. I only know one kind of company that fits that description, and that is the great kind. - end quote

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Warren buffet is an investor he's not a trader he make billions $. While retail stock trader cant make billion$ like him because they lose money while buffet hold and wait for profit.

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But because I am so nice I'll give you a push...: Just make sure you have enough capital to hold a 25,000 pip drop. You will make money in forex "safely"

So what does that mean : Your balance need to at 50,000$ and playing at 2$ per pip max. Yes I know, sound hopeless to get rich fast.

So this is where EVERYONE is different. You have a a life you go to work you "SAVE MONEY". Now instead of putting saving money in your bank. You put it FOREX account. And play Medium risk bet... ALL YOU CAN DO IS HOPE GOD IS WITH YOU and give high % win rate... randomly.

If you lose you just go back to working a your job like "normal people".

And this is why so many people try to find ways to get rich fast in forex because no one really want to win slowly.... Result a minority become rich and the majority blow their balance...

You know what they say: "Sometime You are great but it's not better than Lucky"
Meaning: Some people are very skillful but their time to shine is NOT yet so they get bad luck.
While there are those who try little effort but LUCKY hit the right "stuff" So result they get rich...

So I am sorry if you feel discourage but life is UNFAIR like that.

May god bless those who try to get rich quick....



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Side Note for the pro only (NOT for noob): I know you guy already make tons of money playing nice "medium risk".
This market is not always random, and we can never know how price will move next.
Quoting diceman555
I would like to have a poll on this topic but not sure how to do that. DO YOU BELIEVE THIS MARKET IS RANDOM , ????
Have You ever had the perfect trade set-up, the perfect time and the perfect indicator reading and the market still went against You? What most traders don't understand is that forex is a random game of chance where You are constantly seeking an edge.
A department store cannot predict the number of people that come to it this day, and still do business quite well.
A golfer will never be able to tell for sure if this time his shot will go in the hole, yet still win a tournament.
A chess player will never be able to tell for sure if this game will be won at its start, but still be able to declare mate in 15.
A slugger will never be sure that this one will go out of the park,(until he hits it).

Each of them can improve the results they get through a study of the art.

There is randomness and unpredictability in every single thing we do, and yet we still manage.

So what's your point?

1 out of 4 people in the forex are able to make good money at it. The other three are trying to figure out how. I believe the number of people who make good money at it will grow. I believe some of the ones trying to figure it out will succeed.
Quoting blesssing23
{quote} Have You ever had the perfect trade set-up, the perfect time and the perfect indicator reading and the market still went against You? What most traders don't understand is that forex is a random game of chance where You are constantly seeking an edge.

Yea but that doesn't have anything to do with randomness. The market doesn't care about your setups, it doesn't care about any of that. Technical analysis can give a picture but not the whole picture. But that doesn't mean the market is random.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
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