Crosses, bounces and curve fitted indicators

another moderate target

BASIC SET-UPS

Got to the office early but the pips train had left the station.

WATCH LIST

A great approach for finding safe opportunities is having a watch list of 5 or more currency pairs, one would merely scan thru the pairs and see which one(s) is/are most likely going to give your normal set-ups so you can trade what you see and not your expectations.

Case in point on Friday while I was betting on an upward move in GBPJPY, GBPUSD was respecting the BB and you know these set-ups are no brainers, no analysis required to make a kill, just see price bouncing off the top or bottom BB and a Stoch cross in in O/B, or O/S.

Specifically there was a DIVERGENCE (HIDDEN) in line with the trend and a bounce-off the bottom BB.

FOLLOWING THE TREND

Following the established trend gives a lot of profit opportunities but the danger is that trends can be up trends or down trends, and you never can be 100% certain when the tide is beginning to turn, and you may loose some pips in the process.

I do make losses sometimes but that is where the SL comes in handy.

Yesterday the tide changed on me twice and I took some losses and had I traded the Asian Session, I would have ridden the new trend.

Remember "EVERYTHING works some of the time, SOMETHINGS work, most of the time but not ALL THINGS work all of the time." (no holy grail in Forex)

I think this system is simple enough to follow.

I LOVE M5 TIME FRAME


I got to the office latter than usual and had to work on some project, so I scalped the M5 chart for some quick pips.

Wish I got there before LO I would have gotten on the train at the first Stoch cross in O/S and then ridden the trend after moving to BE.

the beauty of Curve fitting is you are not restricted to any Time Frame but I find that when a trend is gathering momentum M5 gives several opportunities to add on or re-enter or just scalp like I did.

WHEN IT TRENDS

It's as simple as ABC, just wait for the set ups.

MISSING IN ACTION

I got to the office late today and was greeted with work and more work.

Just saw the moves on some pairs which I missed.

MORE MISSES

EURJPY did not do too well

TEMPLATES

For those who have downloaded the templates to back test and try out this system on demo, please note that the values of the BB bands I have stuck with are

H1 24 PERIOD
M30 48 PERIOD
M15 96 PERIOD
M5 288 PERIOD
M1 864 PERIOD

THE BEST SYSTEM

Sorry but it's not this one it's simple enough though but with every "fantastic" system comes the challenge of the psychological, the FEAR AND GREED

I took a trade today and panicked just 3 pips away from my SL and I killed the trade only for it to turn around and go my way, my rationale was that the entry was valid in M5 but not valid in M15 and late so to shave a few pips from my losses I killed the trade.

Why I like this system is it offers multiple entry opportunities across time frames, the only ingredient lacking is personal discipline AND THAT WE ALL HAVE TO FORGE FOR OUR INDIVIDUAL SELVES.

IS FOREX WORKING FOR YOU?

I HAVE TO ADMIT RIGHT NOW IT'S NOT WORKING FOR ME!

Don't be surprised I have to be honest with you but I finally found out why, and let me tell you why.

I have been trading several systems in the past, proven back-tested systems all with a profitable upward rising equity curve, but I was posting negative results until recently when I found Lovees thread on FF and I was on the right track as it suited my style Trade only with the trend stick with the basic set-up and you wont have any problems, then I was introduced to Crucial point and I had to do the maths myself and came up with a system that was uniquely suited to me all mine.

This system beats all in my opinion but like all systems you have to contend with the inevitable draw-downs especially when the trend reverses against you and sometimes that can be 2 or 3 times before heading in it's chosen direction.

Now here's my problem, I have a day job, the pay's not so great and my account's not large enough for me to trade and pay the bills, so I have to share my time between the job and trading, this makes me unavailable to take some profitable entry signals and I some times take to some of the loosing entries, this combines sometimes to make my account swing from negative to positive then to breakeven then to negative then to positive and marginal again.


The paradox is that when I review the day and week and month I see only proof that I should have been tripling my account every month.
So the missing ingredient in the mix is simple TAKING EVERY SINGLE VALID SIGNAL THE SYSTEM GIVES!

For instance I took 4 trades on Friday 3 were -ve, one BE but had I continued taking my valid signals par pair, I would have recovered all the losses and smiled to the back with triple digit pips profit.

My dear friend there's no such thing as a "part time Day Trader" it just doesn't work you'd end up taking only the loosing signals and miss out on the winning signals and blame the system.

To succeed in this game You have to make that commitment to TAKE EVERY SIGNAL and over 20 or 30 trades you will be in net super profit.

CASE IN POINT

Today's EURUSD chart, 6 optimal entries, 3 sub-optimal entries.

Had I taken the entry before the LO I'd have targeted the RN (+80 pips) and moved to BE at 20 pips.

The entry I took was a sub-optimal entry as the Stoch cross was below O/B so I targeted 10 pips and left the office for an outside engagement.

Imagine my taking all the available optimal signals, I would have made my weeks target in one day.

So please make a commitment to TAKE EVERY SIGNAL THE SYSTEM PRODUCES

2 ABOVE OR BELOW?

You might have noticed I sometimes take entries after the Stoch cross but that is when they have crossed the upper or lower BB and i can trade in that direction.

Then most entries after that are based on the Stoch cross.

In the attached screenshot the close below the lower BB coincided with a Stoch cross in the opposite direction in which case we'd expect the Stoch to oscillate and cross in O/B before a profitable entry while the close above the BB was so close to a Stoch cross in the same direction which indicates a buy and all the other crosses in O/S were profitable.

All that's needed is just to wait and pull the trigger when the signals show up

To further illustrate this, today's moves in GBPUSD, GBPJPY and EURJPY all butress the above points.

The secret to success in Fx trading is just to take every valid signal your system produces.

Today I could only take 2 trades,the first one was negative while the 2nd one was positive but I only recovered my loss and added a little.

Had I second guessed the second signal and not taken it I'd have ended in negative and be blaming my luck or the system or my broker.
Moreover there were 3 other signals which would have provided me my weekly target today alone sadly I had to attend to my day job.

So please recognise the signals and take every one of them and you'd end up in piputopia.

UPGRADING MY GAME

Having analysed most of my loosing trades I have come to further filter my set-ups and come up with different grades for them. Finally all I have to do is wait for my GRADE A trades to show up and take them without thinking.

GRADE A

Where price closes above Top BB and 24LWMA is already white take a buy (without thinking)
Where price closes below bottom BB and 24LWMA is already red take a sell (without thinking)

GRADE B

Where price closes below bottom BB but 24LWMA still white but DeMarker Price line has crossed the TSL down,take a sell (with caution)

Where price closes above top BB but 24LWMA still red but DeMarker Price line has crossed the TSL up,take a buy (with caution)

In some cases price may not have crossed the BB yet but DeMarker would have crossed the TSL, these require extra caution.

GRADE C

COUNTER TREND PULLBACK/RETRACEMENT

This is when price reverses and closes below or above the immediate trend (72MA in M5, 24MA in M15 and 12MA in M30), then turns or retraces itself to the previous direction only to turn again in the direction of the reversal.

If you will take a counter trend wait for the retracement or pull back before the second reversal then you can pull the trigger with moderate targets.




Already all the Aussie pairs have given at least 30 pips this morning ie AUDUSD, EURAUD, & AUDJPY.
Then also NZDUSD and EURUSD (M5), have also yielded 30 pips.

All I need is a minimum of 30 pips per day, 150 pips per week.

MORE GRADING

Here are more examples.

TREND PROGRESSION

Grade B and Grade C trades become Grade A trades with time you just have to wait it out that's all.

UPDATED TEMPLATES

I believe quite sincerely that Forex is so predictable now I can go over my 8 pair portfolio and see which is most likely to give me a GRADE A set-up and just waiit for it.

The only time a trade may become unfavorable is when you buy into resistance or sell into support, or when volume /momentum dries up on your trade and the trend direction changes.

I'd post the updated templates if anyone is interested cos it seems I've been talking to myself like this is a private journal.

SOME FEEDBACK PLEASE

SOME CLARIFICATIONS

A trading buddy of mine accused me of shifting grounds too often but in my defense I'd like to state that I'm not searching for that illusive "Holy Grail" I just want to increase my odds of winning in my trading decisions.

I think I finally am on the right track here, previously I'd have to take every Stoch cross in the direction of the BB i.e take a sell where price is closing below BB and Stoch crosses in O/B.

What I've done now is to filter my trade decisions and the alignment of the immediate trend and the BB tells me to take action, all I have to do is wait for my Grade A setups and they will surely come and I can get my daily target if not weekly target.

So please do the required work go over the charts and see the alignment and judge the results to see if the GRADING/FILTERING is strategic or not.