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Crosses, bounces and curve fitted indicators

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  • Post #81
  • Quote
  • Jan 17, 2013 4:09am Jan 17, 2013 4:09am
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
BACK TO THE BASICS


Good day traders, hope you are profiting from the Forex windfall?

I believe everyday should be a payday (except when the trend changes on you but you can take a hit or cut your loss shot and ride the new trend).

I have been having fun with this "curve fitted" concept and even with the misses and SL's and BE's it's been a joy ride.
The beauty of curve fitted MA's is that you can trade any pair on any time frame and all the time frames would align, and it makes multiple time frame analysis so much easier.
Personally this "multi-time frame" and multiple choice MA's has led to an ever increasing quest to achieve the cutting edge.

I from time to time go over my charts to try and tweak and fine tune my approach and you can attest to this in the recent changes.
I have had time to really consider why and how I trade and I see there's been that desire to derive and apply the best "curve fitted" MA and guess what there just is not any.

The thing with MA's is that price will at one or multiple times bounce off or cross any MA you plot on a chart.

When I started I stuck with the Basic MA's then in my attempt to find the best fit came the divisions, the 1/8, 1/4, 1/3 1/2 even now the 1/1.5
They all have their merits and demerits but I have come to conclude that it's all dancing round a pole.

The basic premise of this approach is define the trend with one or more curve fitted MA's and trade the bounce-off's of the levels in line with the trend and supported by crosses.
Occasionally, some bounces and crosses will be against the trend and you may trade that with caution -maybe lower lot size, smaller target, early BE and so on.


I have resolved to stick with the BASIC MA's on whatever time frame I choose to trade and wait for the bounces.

BASIC MA Long term S&R 3 day MA
H1 24 200 72
M3048 400 144
M1596 800 288
M5288 2400 864
M11440 12000 4320

Henceforth my charts will only carry these combinations and that is what I'd be using in all future posts.

I believe I will have more peace of mind and consistency with my trades this way.

If you are familiar with this approach, just take a new cart of your preferred pair and time frame and attach just the basic MA, the 3day and LT S&R and go over as far as you can to see the crosses and bounces, you may find times of range and counter trends but ultimately, the trend wins.

Check these out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Name: [GBPJPY,M30]_2013-01-17_08-56-15LEVELS.png
Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: [GBPJPY,M30]_2013-01-17_08-44-07-BASICS.png
Size: 117 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #82
  • Quote
  • Jan 17, 2013 4:11am Jan 17, 2013 4:11am
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
TRY M15
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-17_09-02-19LEVELS.png
Size: 83 KB
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Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-17_08-52-20-BASICS.png
Size: 121 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #83
  • Quote
  • Jan 17, 2013 5:48am Jan 17, 2013 5:48am
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
DIVERGENCE PLAY

I would have been in a GBPJPY trade but for the fact that I was focused on M30 and the Stochs was reading O/B while the M15 allowed entry at LO

I use the DeMarker to capture DIVERGENCE which is the LEADING INDICATOR and additionally the Stochastic Slope which also captures DIVERGENCE.

The Demarker is set to Close so when comparing it with price you connect the close of the price bars or candlesticks, I choose to use the High/Low settings for the Stochastic so I can have the opportunity of comparing both the High, Low and Close of prices.
With this you have DIVERGENCE covered because when DeMarker is not sure Stochs won't miss it.

RSI and MACD come behind DeMarker and Stochastic when capturing DIVERGENCE.

See what I missed,as I've learnt not to join a trade after missing the signal I have to wait for another set up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-17_10-24-22DIVERGENCE.png
Size: 103 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #84
  • Quote
  • Jan 17, 2013 7:56am Jan 17, 2013 7:56am
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
TODAY'S MOVES

Did anybody catch this? I can only blame my Stochs. I was expecting it in M30, to go back to O/S before crossing so I can ride the continuation of the trend after the range but it just stayed in O/B and crossed from there again.

So the dilemma to choose between M15 and M30 continues
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Name: [GBPJPY,M30]_2013-01-17_12-40-42-BLAME_IT_ON_THE_STOCHS.png
Size: 108 KB
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Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-17_12-18-17-DAYS_MOVES.png
Size: 102 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #85
  • Quote
  • Jan 17, 2013 9:39am Jan 17, 2013 9:39am
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
DIVERGENCE BREWING

Let's hope thin is sustaine d don't know how much power the Bulls have left
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-17_14-34-47-DIRVERGENCE_BREWING.png
Size: 89 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #86
  • Quote
  • Jan 17, 2013 12:44pm Jan 17, 2013 12:44pm
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
DISHED THE DIVERGENCE

I pray for days like this and better where I'd be MORE COURAGEOUS
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-17_17-31-56-FEAR.png
Size: 106 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #87
  • Quote
  • Jan 17, 2013 1:19pm Jan 17, 2013 1:19pm
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts

TRADING THE BANDS


I believe following the trend gives so many opportunities and we just need to go over the charts time and again to see and recognise these opportunities, we can trade the other bounce-off's but the bands give more confident entries.

Much as I like to post current examples so it's not as though I'm cherry picking I would like to show a few examples that would aid recognition of this set-up.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-17_11-43-20-TRADING_THE_BANDS.png
Size: 107 KB
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Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-17_11-40-12-THE_BANDS_HAVE_IT.png
Size: 101 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #88
  • Quote
  • Jan 17, 2013 1:32pm Jan 17, 2013 1:32pm
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts

MORE EXAMPLES


Extremely simple to follow
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-17_11-34-10-GO_WITH_THE_BANDS.png
Size: 94 KB
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Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-17_11-36-01NO_COMMENT.png
Size: 93 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #89
  • Quote
  • Jan 17, 2013 1:49pm Jan 17, 2013 1:49pm
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
THE BANDS EXCITE ME

Can you see the way the bands align with the bounce off the PIVOTS?

From today I''d be documenting the Pivot bounce-off's let's see if it's consistent before including it as part of our set-ups
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-17_18-40-00-IN_HARMONY_WITH_PIVOTS.png
Size: 96 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #90
  • Quote
  • Jan 17, 2013 2:01pm Jan 17, 2013 2:01pm
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
NO COMPLEXITIES

All you need to master are the bounces, and the crosses, then DIVERGENCE and MULTIPLE TIME FRAME ANALYSIS.

Once you can see and recognise the bounces and crosses in the lower time frames you can do so too in the higher time frames for safer entries, then later divergence comes easy.
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #91
  • Quote
  • Jan 18, 2013 2:11am Jan 18, 2013 2:11am
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSIS

Did Super Mario not say "Do not short The EURO"?

Lets see if he's on point
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: [EURJPY,Monthly]_2013-01-18_06-57-05.png
Size: 107 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: [EURJPY,Weekly]_2013-01-18_06-59-50.png
Size: 108 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #92
  • Quote
  • Jan 18, 2013 2:18am Jan 18, 2013 2:18am
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
MULTIPLE TIME FRAME ANALYSIS

I'm thinking he is, let's see some more.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Name: [EURJPY,Daily]_2013-01-18_07-02-14.png
Size: 99 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: [EURJPY,H4]_2013-01-18_07-04-13.png
Size: 112 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #93
  • Quote
  • Jan 18, 2013 2:40am Jan 18, 2013 2:40am
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
AND ACTION

Sometimes you only get just one chance to catch the pips train
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: [EURJPY,M5]_2013-01-18_07-28-00LO.png
Size: 107 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #94
  • Quote
  • Jan 18, 2013 2:43am Jan 18, 2013 2:43am
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
ASIAN SESSION


Then the pips train comes again if you wait patiently for it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: [EURJPY,M5]_2013-01-18_07-11-25.png
Size: 108 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #95
  • Quote
  • Jan 18, 2013 2:52am Jan 18, 2013 2:52am
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
RIGHT NOW

I think M15 says to wait
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: [EURJPY,M15]_2013-01-18_07-48-35-CAUTION.png
Size: 97 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #96
  • Quote
  • Jan 18, 2013 4:54am Jan 18, 2013 4:54am
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
WAITING GAME

There was a BRN bounce and a 100 pips drop.

Another BRN 143.000 has acted as support so let's wait
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-18_09-45-53-WAITING.png
Size: 104 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #97
  • Quote
  • Jan 18, 2013 5:18pm Jan 18, 2013 5:18pm
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
TODAY'S RESULTS

Maybe I should blame it on the Trade Manager.

I was looking to buy GBPJPY as all the higher time frames were pointing up although they were indicating a rest today but the 143.000 level was seeming like support so I took a long position after a Stoch cross in O/S.

I had to leave my office, so I enabled my trade manager with option for B/E @ 30 pips, had I been by my computer, I normally move to B/E at about 15 to 20 pips.

I should have remained consistent as that trade got to positive 20 pips before turning back, blame it on the Trade Manager EA? NO
I should have set the B/E @ 20 pips.

There was a pullback and an opportunity to short, I'd have taken that too had I been in the office.

More opportunities to come.

I'm having connectivity problems I will post the screenshot tomorrow.

Enjoy your weekend all!
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #98
  • Quote
  • Jan 20, 2013 6:15pm Jan 20, 2013 6:15pm
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
HERE IT IS

It's called don't bet, trade what you see happening.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-18_21-06-36-TRADE_MANAGER.png
Size: 79 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #99
  • Quote
  • Jan 21, 2013 9:03am Jan 21, 2013 9:03am
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
OPPORTUNITIES ABOUND

Very simple set-ups, occurring every now and then.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Name: [GBPJPY,M15]_2013-01-21_13-34-37-ASIAN_AND_LO_MOVE.png
Size: 99 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: [EURJPY,M15]_2013-01-21_13-43-17-LO_MOVE.png
Size: 89 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
  • Post #100
  • Quote
  • Jan 22, 2013 2:57am Jan 22, 2013 2:57am
  •  Intrepidpips
  • Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Mos P from Cape to Cairo | 2,575 Posts
QUICK EUROPE OPEN ACTION

Moderate targets are allowed in this game.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: [EURJPY,M15]_2013-01-22_07-51-00-QUICK_EUROPE_OPEN.png
Size: 103 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
 
 
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