Crosses, bounces and curve fitted indicators

TODAY'S BLESSINGS

I will need to look back further but from today's market moves it seems that the LT S&R and the Immediate MA(1/3) are more respected than the 3Day MA.
I see this in GBPJPY and EURJPY which seem to be in transition but price was bouncing off the LT S&R.

GAME CHANGE

Yes I hate to do this but I have to and it may appear it's all guess work but it,s a work in development.

Yesterday's results and today's results made me reassess my approach to see what what is working and what is not, what needs to be added and what can be amended.

First I have to accept responsibility for not taking all my signals yesterday that would have recovered my losses and beefed up my equity, ( I lost 43pips yesterday from 4 trades).

Then I have to ask how do I stop falling for the infamous "London Fakey" how?

I ask because I fell for it again and although this time I used an account with micro lots size (0.01).

The answer came in the form of a question "what's on your chart?" and I looked at them closely, .....
1 MA's
2 BB
3 DeMarker
4 Stochastic Slope

The MA's measure trend, BB measures trend too, Demarker measures momentum likewise Stochastic, then it struck me hey wait a minute the BB measures something else apart from the trend in fact something like momentum which is VOLATILITY
That's the missing ingredient volatility, so we just have to curve fit it to show on which side volatility is on BEARS or BULLS?,so I dig in to an old template of mine and bring out the curve fitted BB and see what I get.

On the M15 chart you have 800EMA, 288EMA and 32EMA; then you have the BB set to 32 period and Standard Deviation of 2.0, this Standard Deviation (SD)which makes the upper and lower bands to contract and expand showing volatility lags as you do not get the full picture of where volatility is on until you are on the wrong side of it.

In tweaking it, you reduce SD to the barest minimum which is 0.2 and it aligns with your 32EMA making it redundant.

To take a buy, you simply ask is price above the upper band and the upper band above 288EMA?, which in turn should be above 800EMA. The the reverse for sell.

How does this help prevent being faked out by the market at LO?

You could take a bounce off 288EMA before price crosses and closes below 32EMA and be safe if price eventually crosses and closses below 32EMA, but if it were a fakey price would most likely reverse before crossing 32EMA.
Price could cross 32EMA trapping you before reversing but you would be able to tell for sure that volatility has shifted.

The attached screenshot shows it all

TWEAK TWEAK

I have to beat the fakey at all cost (I speak for my self 70 percent of my losing trades in line with the trend have been due to falling for the fakey.

Now I believe I have a guard against it and even when I'm fooled I have the tool to turn around and recover my loss by just listening to the message of the bands.

SAMPLE

UPDATE TO THE PLAN

Having rendered the 1/3MA ( eg 32EMA in M15) redundant, we shall proceed to modify the plan


BOUNCE OFF'S

1PRICE BOUNCING OFF LT S&R eg200EMA400EMA800EMA2400EMA12000EMA
2PRICE BOUNCING OFF 3Day MA eg72EMA144EMA288EMA864EMA4320EMA
3BB BOUNCING OFF 3DAY MA eg BB bouncing off 288EMA in M15
4BB BOUNCING OFF LT S&R eg BB bouncing off 800EMA in M15
5PRICE BOUNCING OFF TOP BB Band, IN THE DIRECTION OF LT S&R /3Day MA
6PRICE BOUNCING OFF BOTTOM BB Band, IN THE DIRECTION OF LT S&R /3Day MA
7PRICE BOUNCING OF FBRN
8PRICE BOUNCING OF FRN
9PRICE BOUNCING OFF ADR (daily,mid week and monthly)
10PRICE BOUNCING OFF S&R
11PRICE BOUNCING OFF TRENDLINES

CROSSES

1PRICE CROSSING BB ( that is the 1/3MA BB set to SD 0.2, of your preferred Time Frame)
2BB in 1 above Crossing 3Day MA eg BB crossing 288EMA in M15
3BB in 1 above Crossing LT S&R eg BB crossing 800EMA in M15
4STOCH CROSS IN O/B OR O/S
5DeMARKER CROSSING O/B OR O/S


CONFLUENCE OF CRITERIA (ENTRIES)

1WHERE 1, 2, OR MORE BOUNCES TALLY WITH 1 OR 2 CROSSES


EXITS

1YOUR SET TARGETS AS PER R/R RATIO
2BOUNCES IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF YOUR TRADE
3CROSSES IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF YOUR TRADES
4REVERSAL CANDLESTICK/BAR PATTERNS

Attached is the revised excel sheet which may be printed as a guide.

EXAMPLES

I'm sure it will stick now.

More examples tomorrow, next week DIVERGENCE AND THEN MULTIPLE TIME FRAME ANALYSIS

Attached is the revised template.

WEEK 2 REVIEW

I made a review of the week and the summary is the greater realization that as a trend trader trading with the trend, you have to be wary of trend change in this our volatile markets.

Trends can move up down or sideways and you may incur loss during sideways moves or trend transition times where your valid set-ups may not just hold as the opposing side to your trades may take over the market and you run the risk of loss.

The best way to trade is to take all your valid set-ups and protect your self with a stop loss and move to BREAKEVEN as soon as the opportunity presents itself.
That's right the first rule in trading is CAPITAL PROTECTION, trade to trade again another day.

Another issue that was raised by my review was do you sit down and wait for only your trend moves or do you devise a way to counter trend safely?

I'm working on finding a solution to that.

Meanwhile check out how the week played out in GBPUSD

MORE GBPUSD

MORE WEEK 2 REVIEW

MORE DOLLAR

MORE REVIEWS

1 thing that will help is to zoom out and view the charts then you can have a panoramic view and see the ares of CROSSES AND BOUNCES

I'm off to get a life. lol

I'd be working on solving the Counter Trend (CT) puzzle.

Cya

CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT

Following my promise to myself and all on this thread, I tried to find a way to safely counter trend and found some success in it but it was not going to be a simple solution like I desired.
It turned out to be a moving average crossover system and i needed something much more simpler.

I tweaked the system further and I found the solution in the form of expanding the curve of the curve fitted MA's. See the table i derived stopped at 1/3MA and I remembered someone recording success on the 15 minutes charts with 60 period BB.

Not to let anything pass, I pulled up an naked chart and dropped a 60period BB on it and it was quite impressive it was like EUREKA! BUT looking at the table there was no way 60MA could stand as curve fitted so I had to see how or was I to throw out my curve fitted motto?
BASICLong term S&R3 day MA 1/8 MA1/4 MA1/3MA
H 124 200 72 3 6 8
M3048 400 144 6 12 16
M1596 800 288 12 24 32
M5288 2400 864 36 72 96
M1144012000 4320180 360 480

In the end it hit me "lengthen the curve man" and so I did and add 1/1.5 since we it figured we had 1/8 divided by 2 resulted in 1/4 so why not divide 1/3 by 2?

1/1.5MA
HI 16
M30 32
M15 64
M5 192
M1 960

I attached a 64priod BB on the chart and I saw clearly the bounce off's and realized I needed not look any further and I also saw an amazingly simple way to counter trend, from 64period BB just wait for a cross in the opposite direction of the trend and a pull back before another crossing or better still an open and close above or below the BB as the case may be.

ENTER THE 64 PERIOD BB


I had thought that the lower the value of the MA the chances of entering trades but I see now that the 64 period give earlier opportunities for entry than the 32 and the bounce-off's are unmisseable.

Trading becomes easier when you simply wait for price to retrace to the 64 BB or trade the Stoch crosses in line with the trend in O/B or O/S the real bonus is you can with practice know how to trade counter trades.

recent examples

eurnzd

AND MORE

EURJPY

My opinion that they can be used to provide easily quantifiable info that you can analyze. This is important to know if you have a profitable method. This is helpful when it comes to putting wins and losses in perspective. This is lovely because your ego isn't attached to the outcome of any single trade, and you can have confidence in a winner or a loser, equally.

MORE TO COME

I'd be posting more and more of the 64 Period BB screenshots but I will say this I try to trade everyday as much as my day job can allow so I don't trade so many currencies I trade EURJPY and EURUSD but last week i included several other pairs to be able to post live results and thet got me into the GBPUSD and my desire to counter trade which led to this discovery thus I will be posting more thoughts on counter trending latter.

Welcome Rolland you didn't tell us your opinion on Indicators, we newbies would like a healthy discuss on that I'm sure you'd like to contribute pls don't be shy, let us learn, correct us and prop us on the proper paths.

[b]TODAY'S RESULTS [/B

I set out to talk about Multiple time frame analysis today so i took one of the Low volume safe currency pairs to use as a practical example,

My approach to this subject of Multiple time frame analysis is simple.as a London and Europe open trader I take my H4 chart for my preferred , see where it is pointing to, and and look for opportunities in that direction in M15 or M30 simple.

For example AUDUSD had a Stoch cross upward in O/S on the H4 chart close to LO so I opened my M15 chart and I saw a good long opportunity,

Now what I check for is this
which direction is 200EMA;
which direction is 30period BB;
is there a cross of the Stoch up or down?

This spells out the direction to follow.

MULTIPLE TIME FRAME ANALYSIS


You will notice how clearly the trend is defined in the higher time frames.

look out for Stoch cross up or down and the direction of the bands, and on the lower time frame look for the same pattern, that is flowing with the tide and not against it.

This is the opportunity presented by AUDUSD