Let's get to work

OK sterling work yesterday- UCHF was the biggest mover %wise and I managed to double the ATR. Exceeding the ATR unscaled is my benchmark of a superb day. The aim of course is to make everyday like that

Moving on.
UCHF little more to sink to downside stops today but it's already pretty far down so light shorts here, add more on any retraces upside.
EU: respite for longs today, 875 is the pivot. Once it clears there upwards, it's pretty safe to go in hard for the day, but it's temporary.
GU: long
EY: looking good for longer term longs.
AU: looks pretty cooked. Short.

So basically risk on. Admittedly with Spain being cut to junk status news doesn't support. Spain's at 50% youth unemployment, poor feckers -Talking of euro crises, about time Germany did the honourable thing and left the euro but that's another story.

All looking rosy except the au trade which is 10 offside.Something is amiss though. EU/GU/UY have all risen which is a sure fire indication something is up. What though, I couldn't tell you.

Think I'm pretty much leaving this for the day to play out. AU looks like non-runner, but it's being sold off relative to the other pairs, so it's not going to hurt too much, and it might make a quick leg down later on.
I'm all in on multiple pairs so I don't want to scale up more. May trade the bounce at prob 2913 on EU as a guide for all the others. Maybe. Meantime, research...

I took it - gift horse and all that, and left the AU trade to hopefully return back to base. Still expecting another leg up into New York but could do with something of a retrace for that, so looking to get in again in an hour or two. If it goes up without me as it's currently threatening, then I'll erm... make up for it tomorrow.

On reneentry leaving GU and UCHF, think they're pretty much done and will look to get back into eu and ey at around 891 if we see it and get rid of the ozzie.

Solid day all in all (near enough 7%). Cause for celebration except it did make up for a rubbish pretty much zero week last week. Since last post, only got a chance for an extra 9 pips from 913 close, so would have been better off leaving, but that's OK.
AU closed at b/e.
The only mistake was EJ which i closed by accident along with the others at 913. It had a target of 101.50, so about 30 pips mistake. I noticed immediately then didn't reenter - no real logic to it but once money is booked I treat it differently to floating profits, although it's a notional accounting move.

On for tomorrow more of the same I expect. Not sure about the other pairs, but certainly EU, so going long just below current level at 920, pretty much where we left off. Going light as I'm done for the night now and won't be able to monitor till tomorrow am.

Low of 921 eh, very funny. Long obviously.

Other pairs:
AU lightly bearish from 294.
GU bearish, but not convincingly, so long EG.
UCHF looks like a flat pancake, I'll leave it.
UJ slightly bullish - maybe longs from 78.26 recent lows.

Not expecting any big fireworks...

Newswise, strong signals from Japan about potential QE (Reuters):
•Japan Cabinet Office cuts assessment of economy for third straight month.
•Japan EconMin Maehara - Overseas slowdown-market moves weighing on Japanese economy, will work with BoJ to beat deflation, unthinkable not to talk about pain from JPY strength in meetings with US Geithner, Bernanke - Reuters.
•BoJ Policy Board Shirai - Safe haven flows driving JPY up, affecting Japanese exports, central banks must pay heed to global risk appetites, capital flows.

And the euro top is ... I'm reckoning at 3000/3012. I'm out now though.Took a long on EG, bit on EU and a quick one on GU down. All fairly low levels so nothing to get too excited by.

Nothing else looks remotely appetising right now, so the rest looks like a day of research till we hit highs on euro, assuming we haven't already. I'm slightly tempted - but not tempted enough to go long eu at 960 where we are now for a short scalp upwards, but the longer term picture is holding me back.

Just finished with a small chestnut on GU downwards, think the EU time has passed. If there's any danger of 3000 in the next hour or so, I'm having it for a short scalp but holding nothing over the weekend.
Pretty reasonable day overall. My analysis of UCHF was wrong (it fell, not by a great deal but enough) but I've checked it over and I'd make the same call again Monday even though this time it was wrong. Weekend in two hours oh yes...

And we're off. So broad overview tonight, trades on tomorrow this time. Sometimes I do put on small trades Sunday but we're not at any extremes so no rush (mon/fridays are most common days for a top/bottom). I did have a butchers at some of the discussion threads and it's gobsmacking when people ask for stats on things like that given it's 5 minutes in Excel to calculate. Anyways.

Newswise...
- China's the big deal - exports have really jumped. Pushes risk on, AUD particularly beneficial.
- The euro catastrophe trundles on - we're now looking at Nov for Spanish bailouts, revised Greek terms. That still won't do what it takes - which at least Swedes have cottoned on to -Greece to leave in 6 months according to their finance minister. Quite right. High interest rates + high debts + strong currency + austerity and you might as well close down the country. Greece desperately need to revaluate for which there's no mechanism under EU, so unless Germany wants to front the cost of that, Greece or Germany need to cut their losses sharpish and say their goodbyes to the euro.
- Banking and fiscal union by 2014... interesting to see what that really means.

Chartswise...
AU is currently bearish. In spite of news, I'm not touching that at the moment. Expecting it to be pinned down to 250 for the night, if it wants to rise it has to show it, not second guessing off back of news.
EU bearish, but these levels aren't enticing. Higher up overnight would be nice. See tomorrow am.

GU/UCHF/UY no strong feelings. Best see tomorrow's frankie for more.

Flat overnight, see tomorrow...

Slow morning. AU not showing risk on strength as I thought, expecting mild risk on from eu today and small rises from UY, so I'm long EY looking to scale in on pullbacks. Scalping day for me wherever I can get it.
Will spend some time looking at longer horizons today too.

EJ was the mover of the day. Analysis pretty much dead on - we're pretty much where we started this time Friday for EU. AU never breached 250 - is now but it looks temporary. However, in spite of that my execution was poor today. While I did have conviction that EJ was the mover, I was sure it'd return to base later on. Took some off on a scalp, never came back to meet me.

Such is trading.

I've looked at longer TFs for AU and EU, and nothing appealing there either. Still to wrap up later, hopefully something good in the pipeline. Today's the kind of day when I really wish that brokers offered some decent option trading. Not seen one single flexible offering across the whole marketplace, and binaries are priced for those falling off the turnip trucks.

Talking of which, noticed that Bernanke saying over the weekend that developing countries should let their currency appreciate in light of US QE. The chutzpah of that guy is unreal. It's like screwing their wives and asking them to say thank you.

Finish off in an hour or two.

Long EA (long eu, short au) for tomorrow so far and that's about your lot. Light on both, heavier in tomorrow.

AU was wrong. It's made me think that overnighters are more hassle than they're worth unless they look very high probability. These ones didn't, and it shows. Closed down an EA for minor profit, but AU is 35 offside. I'd usually simply close that by now (it's still light), but looking wider, eu looks to have topped out, I suspect now AU too. GU bullish but careful.

Going to have to be pretty quick this am. I think most of the problem is dominance of the dollar, so even if aud looks weak, it's the minor part of the equation. So when it looks eu long as it did last night, dollar's likely to be weakening a lot, meaning ones which should sink - au - are not likely to.

Theory for later, profits for now.

Switched EU too. If you're following along and scratching your head, no surprise. I've chopped and changed multiple times - currently only long EU and light long uchf for a longer-term trade, scaling in as it falls.

The general trajectory is upwards, but I'm certain there are ways of extracting more out of these calls, especially if they were heavily weighted to EU (which impacts success of all the others). Got a lot on today but it's really important I address that soon. If you're not constantly improving, you're falling behind.

OK. Healthy day's work but I was out this pm, and oh my. The UCHF turned out to be the trade of the dustbins - had I been around I'd have been out at .9284 at 3:15ish, But as it is, it's say there plumbing new lows and I'm fully in averaged at 74, so I'm 40 offside.

The area has SNB support which is why I'm still in, but it's not showing, so overnight I'm placing a stop 15 below current lows. It's like a magnet for a sweep but it looks like SNB are protecting EURCHF side at the expense of the dollar side. They only ever publicly declared eur support, so it's in keeping. However past experience suggested they would step in dollar too. Only now is it coming off its lows.

EU should top out around here, lightly short o/night.
Rest tomorrow am.

Topping out the eu most certainly isn't, closed it out for peanuts with a bit of judicious saving and rescue, with uchf holding on for dear life.

No overnights this time, fresh tomorrow am instead.

I put the UCHF out its misery for a full 35 pips loss because of the danger of eu longs, at 1.3086 - which is where I'm starting to go long again on eu. Other pairs later.

Yesterday went off fine with scalps around eurusd.

Today looking quiet, I'll only trade off the breaks except for light long on ey. This next week's going to be heavy on study, light on trades ... so it's all going to go quiet here for a bit. But it's looking good...

So, I've had an entire week of research - kind of unusual for me, I'm a bit goggle eyed. I usually I do it between trades but if it's complex, then from time to time I need zero distractions.
Anyway, it's been productive but I'm not quite finished... Tuesday I think. It means I then have 30% less days to make my numbers for the month but it's a balancing act. There was a thread a while back that made me laugh asking what do people do in between trades...

Finally, back to the grind stone. I took yesterday too because NYSE was shut, but it's back on today, as am I.
No real surprises in the week - UJ increasing govt purchasing, surprise surprise, bit of beautiful double speak from Lowe at RBA - surprised that the ozzie hasn't fallen but it's not fundamentally overvalued.... blah blah intervention is a big decision. Ie, we'll take the pair down, but we'll give you a chance to do it first.

Anyway, today I'm in and out of EU all day, short currently from the highs till NY and then we'll see. Playing short only for now.