Let's get to work

There's a small problem of a lot of long orders with me at the moment which is going to need some shaking. I'm larger than usual long at the moment, healthily onside, but I'm reserving a lot of firepower for testing of this am's lows. I don't think it'll happen, but this is a belt and braces approach.

OK, sitting around it's entry point at present.
Adding on comes once it's decisively cleared 96.90. Then it's a goer. However, if too many jump in, they'll take the entire ride downwards instead, so I'm defensive on anything below 96.20, and looking to bail if it hangs around below 95.53

Harsh. Trading out with an aim to get down to half current size, looks like a big part of the move may be post-cut either that or I'm utterly wrong. Current position is around 40 offside so not exactly beauty at the moment. Going to a difficult day.

So turned out to be a corker of a day in the end. I was far higher than usual in my position size also far looser than usual in my exits because of my confidence. It got sweaty down at 95.53 because it dropped for a stop hunt 50 below but I was using capital then to trade out. It raised pretty fast so kept all rescue in, took 140 unscaled, with a hell of lot more scaled. I've cut down to a single position now, which is 111 onside, aiming as originally for 99.90.

In hindsight, risk was too high even with the confidence (based on a ton of stuff way too detailed to go into here), so really what was a glorious 10% day should have been more like 5%. Not all wins should be celebrated, not all losses commiserated. More a bit later when I figure out what's next up.

That was fast. I'm out the UY for a very healthy return, not because it cant go higher but because after analysing it, there's going to be some big swings and we're right in the middle. I'm long or short from the outside edges, so protected and took profit for now, back tomorrow am.

Gone light long in AU but with big room to swing down to 9335. It looks like a big range tomorrow on all pairs, which is great but unless you can be more precise (which I can't at the moment), it doesn't count for much.

GU, AU and UY ones for me to watch tomorrow.

Switched AU for a short UCHF instead, looks about the same

Identical in fact. out for +35. UY would have done nicely in the end, should have trailed below rather than stop outright but I was getting conflicting signals.

UCHF wasn't really long term / big target as per new month so sifting through what I'm looking for in the next few days, it's
- big move on AU short. Not ready to short it yet.
- looking for shorts GU probably around 1.5555 to aim for a couple of days.
- big moves on UY. A good retrace will see me long, 99.50s will look for shorts. We're in the unpredictable middle lands at the moment.

Opened up a very small position ahead of 55 at 26 on GU that's 18 onside, but I'd rather see price get back up to 55 before I pile in. Looking for PA around 99.50 for justifying a short on UY, it's not a dead cert downwards.
AU I want to short but higher than current - 88 would be tasty.

So it's all hold for now. Pretty quiet day, but in spite of reasonable profits, can't help noticing the best trade would have been if I'd left the lot and gone for a pint instead.

GU shorts in play now. If it hangs around above 6000 for any decent length of time, I'm out.

Alright, so GU is fine shorting for now.

Selling EY and UY at better levels makes sense too but nothing on the immediate horizon. Everything else is out.

AU looks good for a long right now, but not sure how long for, I'll be more comfortable shorting than on the way back down.

So it's hold out for GU and keep an eye on yen-based pairs for now. GU is sinking really fast which makes me nervous, will be a rocky ride down, gunning for 1.5475.

UY is pretty much cooked on the downside now. I'd like in at a test beneath the low but not sure if it'll make it. I would if I was around to see it through scale in from here, pretty hard adding in. But I'm not so pending only and see if it gets hit later tonight.

OK, it *is* a bit hairy up here at 1.5615, I closed up half on the way up and it's negative obviously, but I'm still bearish here at 615. Going to trade out a bit because it's strong rise but only a bit.

And above here? I'm trading out. Hard.

Alright, I'm back to a low base again on GU, bit fecking whippy. Not quite what I was expecting, so I'll trade it to zero at a point higher than here, probably tomorrow, unless it falls of its own accord.

On the flip side, did manage to get a decent entry on UY at 96.70. I'll add more if 96.50 if seen.
That's all for the day early finish.

Having a few tech difficulties to compound a tricky start to the morning so briefly, right now, I'm averaged in about here long UY in all, extracating a small short on GU remaining from yesterday... more once back to base.

The 96.80 on UY is signficant, if it doesn't break it, day's looking short rather than long. TBC.

I escaped out of UY for peanuts, mostly out of GU just winding my way out. Keeping at eye on UCHF, going to follow momentum once it's out of it's current 20 pip or so range.

Positions have not been great past 24 hours but the beauty is in how you deal with them. It's been ages since I traded out of positions - because I was doing a trial run for a potential client, I had to work really strictly the past month with very rigid positions, but now that's done for now, I'm noticing way more market behaviour trading in and out than I ever used to. As ever, so long as you've figured out your risk/rescue capital plans before hand...

I'd play tighter if I was on more accurate levels, but as it is, we're at all time high vols on UY as an eg and I'm happy to drop down some in size in order to play looser.

Took just over 100 from UCHF, got out just now. It could still go down to 15 but taking the safe profit. I'd only not taken the short UY because I had to go out to the dentists and that would have been a belter from 96.80, which as I said was pretty much top for the day. Ah well, the economies are melting without me. Looks like end of all easy money, at least that's whats priced in.

Onwards.

This seems like madness calling an EU top at this stage especially when 450 (so in actual fact thrusts up to 480) are entirely feasible. But that's what it says... so keeping it low, shorting from here (370), looking to scale into full to 450, probably 3 steps.
Nothing going on AU. GU probably long from here, given EU though makes it worthless. Short EG were I to tie my trades together (which I won't) @ 8534.
Long UCHF from 15 if we see it.
Long UY the big one - from the stops below the low at 93.76

Scratch all that, UCHF long scaling in either direction, mostly likely long from here, hard.

I'm long, cautiously UCHF. I've locked to b/e a small position short on EU but no longer interested. Can't understand fundamentally why UCHF needs to rise so hard, so I'm putting a pivot in the sand at .9170. Let's see. Needless to say, no recoveries whatever happens and keeping disaster stops on

Herein lies the trap. UCHF is going up I believe. UY may yet see a shade lower, when it does, it'll force UCHF lower too shaking confidence of UCHF long.
I'm convicted about vols, not about direction.

So the only thing for it is quick moves to b/e if it crosses entry point and re-entry. Usually it's an account burner, but today it's warranted.
Because of that, I'm not piling in the position until I feel we've cleared the entry point. It's 11 onside could be wiped out in a second.