Let's get to work

Turned out to be a good call - not the trades, which both closed for a grand total of fanny adams, but to do research instead. I've cut right back on researching because I'm pretty stable in strategy now, but I had a corking day. Finally figured out some tricky bits and bobs that'd been whirling around my head for ages.

No matter. Back on it. I'm back long on EU now, to take a leisurely drive to around 1.3045 tomorrow. But I'm expecting a pretty quick turnaround so I won't be hanging around up there. Still bearish overall.
GU could be good for long too, but it pissed me off so much this morning, I'm sticking it in the doghouse for 24 hours.

UY's looking long too - finally, but that if anything is right annoying. Long EU and long UJ equals difficult to move. Long GY is finally taking off now I'm thoroughly out it.

Also, I should really be taking some longer term trades amongst all this. I've been bearish all week on EU, should really front up these trades as well. One to think on.

Tidy. EU made it's way to to 3000, but the 3000 causing a bit of turbulence. If we don't see 3000+ in the next hour, it's broken but for now, holding.

GU rocketed further, now at resistance. I'd definitely lighten up there if I was in, but as said I left it.

UY is waiting patiently. How polite. I'll look at a long entry once EU's done its work, seeing as normal relationships seem to have restored for now.

Other than that, UCAD is the only other mover, tied in with oil rise last night. No obvious entry at the moment.

Whipping around a bit but it checked the 3000 level so still on.

The big drop just was hairy but I'm not convinced. Looks like a good discount to me.

Revised target to 3030. No immediate shorts on reversal though, need to see it rest like a turkey out the oven.

Perfectly roasted.
So now, UY. This is a bit tenuous, but I've gone light long just now for a bit of longer term (mid week at least) to get another leg up to around 79.50. There is no complicated reasoning to this other than 77 is pretty much a no go area because of intervention, and BoJ have predictably signalled they're going to ramp up printing and we've not really seen much solid reaction yet. Timing wise, now is as good as any, we've had the retrace on EU, time to start buying dollars soon.

Not expecting any sudden moves. If you're fixed RR it's only 1:1 but pretty reasonable odds. My position is light to give room to trade out if it's wrong.

Other than that, shorting EU a bit later on from around 60 level looks good. Reacting around 45 currently.

Ooops, missed the drop. Happened at 45 as per y/day but I thought it might hold for a bit longer than that but clearly not. Too late now, that's me done tradewise till Sun eve. expecting 1.2970 to hold

So first week journalling, kind of works. Couple more days till my q ends, then I'll see if it's a goer.

No serious gaps, no serious changes. I'm light long EU / EY still long UY from last week (gone nowhere so far).
It's a bit early to call resumption of EU upward trend but that's what I'm looking out for.

All positions are light in case I'm wildly wrong -don't have enough conviction for stops, plus I'm not monitoring till tomorrow am, so keeping it light gives enough room to trade out if I start Monday with a whimper rather than a bang.

Nothing like a strong start to the morning. And that was nothing like a strong start.

So, just to quote the morning briefings:

•Japan PM Noda - Vows to end deflation within a year - DowJones.
•BoJ Aug 8-9 Policy Board minutes - One member noted possible need to do more to up inflation expectations by influencing FX rates, many concerned economic recovery to be delayed, should not exclude any policy options, willing to take bold measures still.
•The next panic - Europe's crisis to be followed by more devastating one likely beginning in Japan - The Atlantic.
•Japan megabanks in rush to get foreign currencies - Nikkei.
•Japan government-industry consortium to rescue Renesas - Nikkei.

Capital flight and yen strengthening = fake move but before I get wedded to a fundamental position which I rarely do, I need to check my levels...

Text of the minutes are pretty chipper - focuses on Europe, fairly bullish on Japanese recovery. This is the focus.

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche...12/g120809.pdf

OK no go levels are 78 UY (at 78.04 presently), EY, we're at it - closes below the low 100.84 = fail. EU 1.2918 previous low.

Definitive closes below each, and I've got work on my hands. Nothing indicates adding to these levels, otherwise it'd be a great start.

Think it'll be a busy morning...

2 minutes. 78 DNT can break but must see immediate rebound to continue.

Twas right all along on the eur side, but the DNT is keeping yen strong. The sooner it pops the better. Back near black now but my entries were pretty rough.

Gotta wait out the yen till the orders run dry.

Not pretty. Evacuate!

20 pips so far recovered before scaling after spreads, pretty good considering true range over same period was also 20. Still at it - tough in tight ranges mind, like pulling teeth.

Pretty much done now. Booked 0.4% loss, another 0.4% loss floating with potential 0.6% max - so worst case is -1%. Last week was about +5% so it's not going to hurt too much but all the same.
Any time this kind of thing happens the next couple of hours I spend reviewing what happened, what I missed, what could have been done better etc etc. It's like penance for a losing day. Wrap up in about 3 hours

After that excuse for a day, moving swiftly on. I reset all analysis but lo and behold, back to long eu. In total - long eu, eg,uy, ey, au. Short GU.

Doesn't leave a lot to short really, basically dollar sell off if I read this correctly. I'm not going in all those, so before I hit the sack, long EU and short GU light.

EU I'm looking to be the mover to 3034 tomorrow and will scale in as we go up. GU I'm not entirely convinced by - doing a rare setting a tight stop tonight at 6236. That sits it in stop hunt territory, but it's already been hunted, so if crosses, most likely it'll stay there.

Hunted my own stop overnight on GU. Not reinstating that fella. EU is back at base. That's still OK, so long as we don't see LLs from here and should be a chance to add in.

EG if it so much touches a pip past its current low, something is up with the whole analysis, possibly just GU possibly the lot.

UJ yet to materialised (not in it). AU still fine (also not in).

1.2980 revised for eu.

OK looking fine. GU was off, way off but EU holds.

Hovering around the lows at present, scalping in and out but now waiting for the up. 1.2883 is post fomc low - v significant. If it cracks, no heroics or rescues, just GTFU immediately.