Let's get to work

And while I'm about, looking at this past today, the 890 level is almost certainly not going to hold. I'm short from the 2980 target anywhere up to 3050. Target 610. This'll be light with stops to boot as I'm near the end of my year.

Because I can't rescue (no time, against trend), I've lightened up to 50% of full steam.

And I'm out at 946. I know it's not hit 980 but a) it looked like it was struggling, and b) I need to wrap up for the quarter. Since then, it's rocketed on a bit more, the little feckers.

Shorts I'm going to set a pending for around 3000 level, with a large stop and an easy position then back in a week.

Admittedly writing a journal like this has an audience of mainly 1, but I'll continue for a bit in next q, helps me think.

Just found this thread, and drop in to say a hello. For a long time, I thought you're a swing/position trader, seems I am wrong, hehe.

Keep up good work, good trading!

Hello zkf, a reader eh, you're rare around these parts. A bit like good swing positions - they've always been a bit of a sideline, moreso recently because we're ranging so much. See saw of euro bad news // opportunistic QE keeps everything pretty level pegged. Euro gets a stay of execution in return for lowering US debt but this is really unstable. When it cracks, I'll be looking for some good pyramidding but till then...

I go away for a week and leave it at 946, and right now it's at 946. That's timing for you. Getting back into the swing of it today may take a while. The only pending didn't hit, we were mostly ranging all week but the yen is selling off as suspected.
Nothing concrete yet, have a very light short AU and light EU on account of the level but that's it. Time to catch up on news.

OK, so looking through the usual suspects for a bit of background to the past week that I missed...

AUD: Rate cut, should keep it pinned down for a while. 0162 is the level to breach downside.
China: in relation of course. This China-Japan islands business smacks of diversion. Not sure if Jintao has the Kirchner gene or not, but there are a number of pointers to China taking a bit of a tumble - which is relative considering their growth, but even so, adds to AUD weakness potential. Need a break and retrace for entry

Eur: Same old holding pattern. But Spain just sold all of its bonos with yields falling across the board. Figures lie, but hmm... Still no call for rate cuts which would give it some downside welly

US: This is what's interesting. Bernanke will carry on with QE until unemployment falls. Meaning likely stability in EU for a while yet. It looks pretty clear now - EU weakness is mopped up by QE, and will do so until either consensus is euro will survive (it rockets), or all hope has drained away (worldwide crash). Still ages away from the latter, former still possible.

Yen & GBP. Both awaiting QE news, 1hr30 for GBP tomorrow for yen. They've both been given the green light by US QE but both currencies are weaker so there's less room. Both notes should set the tone for coming weeks. More QE and they'll fall.

Yesterday - useless. Oz rises befuddled me, closed eu at b/e. UJ o/night signalled no real intervention until oct 30th potentially. AU seen v bad econ data but rising with NFPs later on today.

EU and friends all reverting back to base in advance of NFPs which gives us a steer. Already been in and out a little this am but for the day... GU: pivots 175, EU bearish, AU slightly bullish, but reverting to mean, so ideal is long below current. UCHF: shorts on retrace. UY slightly bearish, not at good levels for anything right now.

Looking closely for good post NFP levels too

Sat on the sidelines, flipped analysis on EU, bearish from 67- 150 area. long to there thru nfp in 5

US unemployment down... but they're including babysitters in the figures. Says something when the nations economic recovery depends on swedish au pairs.
I'm short and short again at the stops just for today.

Seems the thought of swedish au pairs is cheering everyone up. See where the cut takes us, reckon we might be on for long to 150

Should be seeing 150 come monday. However it's Friday and I'm short, trading out.

And out for small beers, bounced at 67 which irony of ironies was my first plan. Going to attack this better Sunday night...

So Friday finished exactly where I anticipated (2nd time around) at 320, leaving me up for the day and up for the quarter 2 days in. Not a blazing start (0.25%) but a start at least.

Looking ahead for tomorrow looking bullish so gone eu and au light long on both while I sleep before I nail it tomorrow.

Did some interesting research too over the weekend which needs a bit more confirmation but if I'm right should speed things right up. In the news, funny I mentioned the Kirchner effect last week, seems the Argies have twigged on to her game:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...g-economy.html

Meanwhile, I don't think I can ever recall a situation in recent years where war's been so close. China-Japan is a long way off but bubbling, N and S Korea is very close and Israel and co is virtually assured at this rate. Elections in US mid Dec, so some point soon afterwards is the time to watch and see.

Hi triphop,

What's the meaning of "depends on swedish au pairs", SEK/AUD?

Ha ha, no, google swedish au pairs. Switch to images. Don't spend all day gawping, there's work to do

Funny day today, with the Japanese celebrating Taiiku no hi and the Yanks celebrating Columbus. Half the market's disappeared, leaving Aussies and London to do all the work.

Euro sunk overnight (I'm 40 off side). That's still within my parameters so I add on here. However, any firm closes below current lows and I'm reassessing. Oz hasn't moved, light add there. I'd go in harder, but because euro is a touch too heavy, not going for the kill just yet.

Now a bit of a wait and see till London.

Pretty far off today. With a bit of wrangling out with some collateral damage, off to assess what and how. Grrr

Day off today doing some digging and investigation. All very interesting, and I don't usually let it take up a whole trading day but it was way too good to pass up . Now crazy late, need to analyse tomorrow, so broad statuses...

GU: Bearish at slightly better levels.
UCHF. SNB chairman talking this am in Japan should do the job. Short at the highs, a stop hunt would be apt. May jump in if I don't get picked up o/night.
EG, Bullish, which will prob keep GU sat at the lows rather than penetrating them. Meaning, bullish EU. Need to have a look at this tomorrow, looks bearish chartwise. EY, UJ, AU to consider tomorrow.

Lazy on the stop hunts chaps. Concentrating purely on UCHF for shorts. Looks limited upside on eu at present, gu not looking attractive so going for the better probabilities.

About time they sat on it for ages. Waiting on a bounce then reentry, short again.