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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

Quoting John Last
Noyer, the head of France's central bank suggested that the UK was a candidate for a credit rating downgrade. Why? France itself is a candidate may loose its AAA rating after two credit agencies last week indicated they were considering marking down countries in the eurozone.

But Bank of France governor Christian Noyer said they should instead be looking at the UK because of the scale of debt and inflation and the poor levels of growth and bank lending on this side of the Channel.

Noyer told Le Telegramme newspaper that a downgrade for France...
I think if France was more like the UK or US they would be right in saying that. Other than them both being part of Europe. There are very distinct differences and I think Noyer is dead wrong.

 

  1. UK is part of Europe but NOT part of the Eurozone
  2. UK has their own currency
  3. UK has their own central bank
  4. UK has been taking steps to deal with their problem.

  1. France is stuck in the Euro with 17 other countries with 17 different national governments.
  2. 17 different countries stuck with 1 central bank
  3. Eurozone keeps kicking the can down the road
  4. The richer nations don't want to pay for the poorer nations bailout, they expect the US, China, Japan, Russia and the rest of the world to do it.

I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
Quoting PipKiller
I think if France was more like the UK or US they would be right in saying that. Other than them both being part of Europe. There are very distinct differences and I think Noyer is dead wrong.

 

  1. UK is part of Europe but NOT part of the Eurozone
  2. UK has their own currency
  3. UK has their own central bank
  4. UK has been taking steps to deal with their problem.

[list=1][*]France is stuck in the Euro with 17 other countries with 17 different national governments.[*]17 different countries stuck with 1 central bank[*]Eurozone...

I love guys (figuratively) that are uber competent learners.
Quoting AaronWard
I love guys (figuratively) that are uber competent learners.


Ohhh..... Did I get one right master


Add: Speaking of ratings. Moody's cut Belgium 2 notches to Aa3 outlook negative


Hmmmmmmm....... with the markets acting like the village idiot that must be a risk on positive. Time to buy, buy, buy

Inserted Video
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
1.30 is an important point in the EURO, now if price continues to close below it, then i believe we are still going down, so far price is trading above it and on monday a gap up, and failure to fall below this price will still give me incentive to continue to profit from long positions
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
Quoting the redlion
1.30 is an important point in the EURO, now if price continues to close below it, then i believe we are still going down, so far price is trading above it and on monday a gap up, and failure to fall below this price will still give me incentive to continue to profit from long positions
i wish euro will down below 1.3006 =) together we wait for monday gap TQ
Adam has been one of the best to explain the markets using a combination of fundamentals and technicals with his analysis.

I subscribe to his services however he also posts free material and he just came out with a great piece on December 16, 2011.

http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1324055365.php

This is a great overview of the markets, commodities and the US Dollar Index.

Enjoy your weekend and continue to learn and understand the business that you are in trading forex. Even if you have not yet reached the level of success that you want understanding what causes the markets to move gives you an edge on most other traders and you stay current with things happening out there in our world. I return to Montreal on Monday from Toronto and I am looking forward to sleeping in my own bed.

I went to see Margin Call yesterday and I found it to be intense and the 2 hours went quick. It is a hard cold movie which reflects the reality of the financial world.

Snippet:

The bottom line is commodities have been crushed by the surging US dollar. This sharp dollar rally, amplified by unsustainable Europe fears, is the sole reason this latest commodities correction has been so long and deep. But this doesn’t change the underlying fundamentals for the raw materials or the currency, which remain bullish and bearish respectively. Thus a sharp reversal is inevitable.

Just like after the stock panic, speculators and investors smart enough and brave enough to buy commodities and commodities stocks when few others dare are likely to earn fortunes. Once the dollar starts sliding again, which will be exacerbated by rallying stock markets, commodities ought to be off to the races given how extremely oversold they’ve been. Opportunities of this magnitude are quite rare.
Quoting knoholygrail
Adam has been one of the best to explain the markets using a combination of fundamentals and technicals with his analysis.

I subscribe to his services however he also posts free material and he just came out with a great piece on December 16, 2011.

http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1324055365.php

This is a great overview of the markets, commodities and the US Dollar Index.

Enjoy your weekend and continue to learn and understand the business that you are in trading forex. Even if you have not yet reached the level of success that...
besides gold which commodities are oversold? They are overbought in my oppinion, been a bubble for a few years.
Quoting knoholygrail
Adam has been one of the best to explain the markets using a combination of fundamentals and technicals with his analysis.

I subscribe to his services however he also posts free material and he just came out with a great piece on December 16, 2011.

http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1324055365.php

This is a great overview of the markets, commodities and the US Dollar Index.

Enjoy your weekend and continue to learn and understand the business that you are in trading forex. Even if you have not yet reached the level of success that...
I dont fully agree with that article

I do agree that the USD is fundamentally beairsh over the long term but he taks about the sharp reversal when European fears fade...... that is one big IF.... things are worse than ever in Europe, it is insolvent at its core and no one knows how deep the rabbit hole goes... at the same time the US data is still rapidly decoupling from Europe and has much more room to the upside.

Recent data reported that speculation on a bearish Euro is at an all time high. The last time is was here when the greek crisis initially broke the EU was trading at 1.2... the ONLY reason it is at 1.3 now is due to massive repatriation of USD's to Euros by insolvent french banks.... yet the market continues to lean on its short positions and sooner than late the Banks will break causing a violent move down sub 1.2's... frankly it is inevitable.... the ONLY thing that can stop it is MORE reflationary measures(Ie QE.. IE BAZOOKA).... the Fed has voiced they are vehemently opposed to bailing out Europe and see no reason to do any of this as long as US data improves...

Can this change? Yes of course... will it? Most likely.... but NOT yet.... especially during an election year.... No politician wants to witness soaring food and fuel prices during their bid for a re-election... especially obama.... QE3 would be impossible to justify for at least another year... if not longer...

just my .02
Quoting knoholygrail

I went to see Margin Call yesterday and I found it to be intense and the 2 hours went quick. It is a hard cold movie which reflects the reality of the financial world.

Snippet:
I saw Margin Call too a few weeks ago. Also found it intense, but Wall Street 2 had a bit more consistency for me.

There are at least two lines, though, that Margin Call engraved into my mind:

1. Jeremy Irons (the big chief of the financial firm): I can tell you that it wasn't brains that has gotten me here.

2. Jeremy Irons again: it's just money. It's made up. Pieces of paper with faces on them.

All in all, like you said, a great insight for the financial world.
Quoting michaelnew
I saw Margin Call too a few weeks ago. Also found it intense, but Wall Street 2 had a bit more consistency for me.

There are at least two lines, though, that Margin Call engraved into my mind:

1. Jeremy Irons (the big chief of the financial firm): I can tell you that it wasn't brains that has gotten me here.

2. Jeremy Irons again: it's just money. It's made up. Pieces of paper with faces on them.

All in all, like you said, a great insight for the financial world.
If those are the best quotes, doesn't sound like a very appealing movie to me, sounds like an episode of sesame street on drugs.
Quoting John Last
Noyer, the head of France's central bank suggested that the UK was a candidate for a credit rating downgrade. Why? France itself is a candidate may loose its AAA rating after two credit agencies last week indicated they were considering marking down countries in the eurozone.

But Bank of France governor Christian Noyer said they should instead be looking at the UK because of the scale of debt and inflation and the poor levels of growth and bank lending on this side of the Channel.

Noyer told Le Telegramme newspaper that a downgrade for France...
hey brother... love your post but I dont know if anyone remembers June 2010 when the EU was trading under 1.20

1. Strict German Austerity measures were passed and the market got happy( today the austerity measures all over Europe are laughable at best and there is no way the countries involved will adhere to them)
2. Rehn announced the first rund of bank stress tests... this was before everyone learned stress tests are retarded.. and of course they ALL passed goriously... so the market began to rally
3. Only greeces bond yeilds were goin nuts... now everyones is
4. The ecofin kept spewing rumors about the bailout fund( sound familiar? except then the market wasnt savvy to the EZ politicians bullshit)
5. Bond sales of the other PIIGS were doing well.... adding to the recovery.... umm, now? not so much//
6. By July sentiment was vastly improving... now it is ONLY worsening...
7. Belgium got their rotation at the EU presidency and optimism soared... today Moodys downgraded belgium by 2 notches
8. NFP's in the US declined for the first time in 2010 in July... todays US data is steadily improving...


this is just off the top of my head cuz i remember when sentiment shifted back then... the US was dipping into shit and Europe was showing signs of hope and recovery


today the tides are massively turned....
So will we get a rally because the charts say so and we are at an extreme end of the market?? I really doubt it... I think Xmas is cancelled kids

One of jesse livermores rules way back in the day was go long when stocks reach a new high. sell short when they reach a new low. Last time the COT showed the EU bearishness at an all time record it blew through it and the EU crashed another 1500 pips before turning around.... I for one dont have a problem selling new lows and buying new highs... if the COT says everyone is shorting this piece of shit and Im one of em... fuck it.. its for good reason...

fact of the matter is the COT doesnt show how massively short USD's the rest of the world is. The COTP numbers may appear to show a large short position in the Euro, but in reality in the cash FX market the world is SHORT the dollar en masse(Trillions). The last three years of ZIRP have encouraged Banks, especially in Europe to leverage the carry trade in
Sovereign Debt. The problem is the dollars that have been borrowed and leveraged need to be paid back. The underlying security / sovereign debt has collapsed so the collateral behind the loan has created massive losses in dollars. we recently saw the Fed cut the swap rate on dollars from 1% to .5%. This hardly helps the problem, for when one borrows dollars (through other foreign banks) and they are leveraged and repoed into trades that are significantly under water, it does not matter what the borrow rate is for swaps. The major financial players (can you say MFGlobal?) have been doing this trade due to all the QE measures by the FED for over three years. Now there is a Black Hole in the collateral, and everyone owes dollars (in the 10s of Trillions). The ECB even attempted to allow other collateral to be pledged hoping that would stem the selling, but once everyone is totally under-water in their leveraged trades there is no way out. So when one observes the COTP number, remember this is just for the futures and does not reflect the actual amount of dollars the world is short.


IE... keep shorting this piece of crap to 0... the writing is on the wall and the Euro is doomed.... are we gonna have tradable pullbacks? Yes of course.. And Ill def trade any feeble attempts to stem the slide of this thing... But when its time to short Im all in every time...
Quoting Wulfgar
IE... keep shorting this piece of crap to 0... the writing is on the wall and the Euro is doomed.... are we gonna have tradable pullbacks? Yes of course.. And Ill def trade any feeble attempts to stem the slide of this thing... But when its time to short Im all in every time...
I'm right there with you bro... and I'm sure most people in the know are right there with both of us.
I am waiting for an upward correction to 1.32 and then I'll be levering up on the sell button.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
I'm right there with you bro... and I'm sure most people in the know are right there with both of us.
I am waiting for an upward correction to 1.32 and then I'll be levering up on the sell button.
I hear ya man.. I got a pending plopped right there at 3219...

Im also buying the hell out of the UCHF right now ... thanks SNB for giving us such a friendly pullback...
Quoting Wulfgar
this is just off the top of my head...
Good post, Wulfgar. I wanna say that your prediction will pan out...IF the Fed wants it to. But I could be wrong, leaning on a risk/dollar weakness correlation that could be undergoing a paradigm shift. If we go full on into a correlation reversal then it may be possible to have strong usd - weak oil and still not crash the stock markets. Weakened euro is now de rigeur for the EZ same as weak usd has been for the USA. But still uberstrong usd wreaks havoc on the exporters - maybe. My suspicion is that the decision has already been made amongst the CB's and the tipping point is already behind us, but hey I also believe in UFO's, Bigfoot, and the power of crystals.

I tell ya I just don't have the foresight gained from long experience to make the call, and when I see a vast majority make it so easily the contrarian in me throws up red flags.

But no biggie, I always fall back on scalping. A scalper just needs to be alert and rockhard disciplined, he doesn't need to sweat the big picture.

Good luck bud.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
I'm in no man's land. I see a correction further up but I have also seen a perfect to-the-pip retracement, 23.6/38.2. Yesterday formed a nested h/s which signals a reversal for me.
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Quoting Wulfgar
I dont fully agree with that article

I do agree that the USD is fundamentally beairsh over the long term but he taks about the sharp reversal when European fears fade...... that is one big IF.... things are worse than ever in Europe, it is insolvent at its core and no one knows how deep the rabbit hole goes... at the same time the US data is still rapidly decoupling from Europe and has much more room to the upside.

Recent data reported that speculation on a bearish Euro is at an all time high. The last time is was here when the greek crisis...
It is not politically acceptable today in the USA to bail out Europe regardless of the reason. It is also not acceptable to bail out the banks again.

This is the new game being played by the FED now. They are still doing QE yet in a different form so they do not have to acknowledge it. We only found out recently thanks to Bloomberg that they put out over a Trillion dollars after the Lehman debacle in 2008.

They stopped short term a major meltdown recently in Europe and in a year or two we should again find out what they did.

We are in the end game now as there are many large banks in trouble and that includes the US ones as well. They keep pointing out that there is substantial liquidity out there however what they do not talk about is the insolvency of the system specifically the banks who when forced to write off their losses will be bankrupt.

It does remind me of Margin Call since John the Head of the firm had no choice but to deal with it as heads also rolled including Demi Moore.

The FED to date keeps their heads and only deals with it in order to delay the final act if possible until after the election.

I am looking forward to the Willie report hopefully this Sunday to get his take on recent events.

A brief comment on Gold since there are still some people perhaps many people that think Gold is in a bubble.

My call made a few days ago is for Gold to be at $2500 US or higher by December 31, 2012.

There is nowhere for Gold to go but Up and that is mainly because of the FED and other Central Banks of the World debasing the currencies that they control.

Gold sold off because of short term problems caused by the MF Global meltdown and the missing funds. It is far too complicated to explain or even understand fully at this time. Gold is no persons debt.

As I have said in the past I take my lead from Jim Sinclair of WWW.JSMINESET.COM who constantly has been correct on his views on Gold.

I hope this clarifies some of the issues. I do not agree with Adam on all things as he perspective is more from the stock and commodity side.

They have a big effect on forex. In fact Jim Willie has commented on some of Adam's views and they disagree. I eventually make up my own mind once I have all or most of the facts.

Enjoy your weekend and Xmas and other holidays or around the corner.
knoholygrail, I would like to get your opinion on tradebots. Every year the increasing volume of trades are carried out by bots that read PA and react much faster than any trader. This can be great because it increased liquidity and makes price 'tidier'.

Right now, the EUR is obviously hammered but still we see price reacting to the technicals. Do you think this is the actions of the bots that take up around 60-70% of the volume?

Hope your well.
well to me its as bullish as PT would like to 3200.

1x1 angle held on h4 square it would to the least IMO reach 3175.

whatever comes from there is a possible retrace to 1x1 again then to the magic sweet spot 3200.

h4 outlook on the square



h4 outlook with circles and ellipses




ADD: there is no major supply on the h4 until the 3175. price should sweep up to it well i believe.




for the 'bullshit' analysis: we got waning cresenct tommorow.
the venus saturn opposition might be lagging we have around 3 positive trines, sextiles and what not.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
daily still looks relentlessly bullish.

the fact taht we are in daily demand zone untouched is a bull call to me especially wiht time lining up with price

other chart posted before is still very valid

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got a mirror forecast and my old cycle chart posted before now is after

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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
The Euro Is quite Hurt now...
Chart attached
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
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