EurAnalysis

Mwuahahaha, I have to write this down and stick it on the fridge.

yeah, I agree with you. Eurusd may look for a LOHI in the next wave, starting from here or from 1,25. Volatily is expected. Since 2008 weekly candles have never been like before. Huge candles, extreme ups and downs. EURUSD is bearish but as long as is coupled with equities she will figth to go up any time investors all over the world find equities cheap.

France rating already announced or ?

From my novice view, I think there is a bit more at work than the price influence of equities.

Possible scenario - because the more i see the more beautiful she is - might be wrong and lets see how daily closed first - btw have a nice weekend all

Fitch has reaffirmed France has AAA rating but they are on negative watch.

Lol the wisdom you can pick up on this forum is mind blowing

Retest to 1.3045? A confirmation candle above dark blue line says yes...

Thanks for the explanation PT. I'm sure my weekend study topic (since you guys talk about it so often in here) of the whole Risk ON/OFF and risk assets will help to paint a clearer picture. I think figuring out the basics of the flow of money into different types of assets and how they correlate will be a huge personal asset! Anyways speaking of the weekend, everybody have a good one!

I have been studying Risk On Off in the past couple of days. Getting the hang of it. I have some links to some good material if you want them?

...When are S&P spilling the beans? Tonight?

Yes Tyoon that would be great. Either post em up here or PM them. As for your S&P question, hopefully someone knows...

If you have links to some good material which others may find educational, please feel free to post them here. If I feel they are worthy, I will post them on page 1

ADD: I expect S&P to release their ratings (if any) after NYSE closing bell... not before.

SHARK!!!!! GET OUT OF THE WATER NOW...

All Over the World, People Are Yanking Money Out of Stock Funds

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/im...0803152814.jpg

I just saw that article. Can't blame them. The vast majority of what I have is sitting in cash in the bank. Bank keeps asking if we want to invest it in a mutual fund or whatever. No thanks, I'm just fine with it sitting there in CASH.


Now let's see what S&P does. After the friday close and making a political statement seems about right for them.

I adjusted a few positions in my small IBFX strategy test acount but keeping the majority of my "risk off" positions, including short E$ which is +350 right now, through the weekend. 23 pairs still trading and 2300 pips in profit right now so a risk on surprise won't hurt too much.

Hope that this opens for you












https://mail.google.com/mail/images/generic.gifCashless.wmv
3096K Download

These are what I have been looking into recently. I am going to continue my research with the time I have over the weekend.

Overview of Risk On/Off

Following Example

Risk On, Risk Off and the Gold Trade

Risk On/Off and Global Currency Flows

Overview of Carry Trade

Rollover with Dave

Rollover with Dave 2

Carry Trade with Dave 1

Carry Trade with Dave 2

Carry Trade with Dave 3

Baby Pip's Carry Trade Criteria and Risk

Khan's Carry Trade Basic's (Gotta love Khan!)

Yen Carry Trade

The Carry Trade: Get With It Or Get Run Over By It

Risk On/ Risk Off, Carry Trade, And US Dollar

HSBC Currency Carry Trade

CME Risk On/Off Trades

Extra; Bonds and Quantitative Easing For Dummies

Perfect thanks. I have posted some of them on page 1

Okay I'm off for the weekend. Before I leave I want to share a though with all of you about super glue.

Haha, this is my favourite. Greece debt size.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Xu6cwzMWph.../Greekdebt.jpg

Have a good one PT.

Noyer, the head of France's central bank suggested that the UK was a candidate for a credit rating downgrade. Why? France itself is a candidate may loose its AAA rating after two credit agencies last week indicated they were considering marking down countries in the eurozone.

But Bank of France governor Christian Noyer said they should instead be looking at the UK because of the scale of debt and inflation and the poor levels of growth and bank lending on this side of the Channel.

Noyer told Le Telegramme newspaper that a downgrade for France – which would drive up the interest Paris pays to borrow and make loans in the wider economy more expensive – "doesn't strike me as justified based on economic fundamentals". "Or if it is, they should start by downgrading the UK, which has a bigger deficit, as much debt, more inflation, weaker growth and where bank lending is collapsing,"

This interpretation is coming from the Guardian however you may ask, what the hell is going on? Those credit agencies menaced even USA, now major European countries. When the lybian leader Gadaffi menaced USA and Europe they went dropping bombs on him.

Now what they are going to drop on those rating agencies? LOL.

http://beathespread.com/blog/view/58...-the-euro-zone

This is very interesting aricle about the crisis in the Euro zone. It is about the interactions between the banks and the regulators.

-As the Euro was introduced in 1999. Investors—their devaluation worries banished—viewed the bonds of Mediterranean economies as a close substitute for those of Germany and other solid economies, and were drawn to them by slightly higher yields.

-pension-fund clients preferred investments in the currency their liabilities were denominated in, the euro.

-The European Central Bank lets any bank in the euro area deposit government bonds in return for short-term loans, under so-called repurchase, or "repo," agreements. This was profitable for banks, since bond yields exceeded their interest cost for repo loans, and was initially a spur to buy euro-zone bonds.

Here was the beginning of the story line.


The ECB monetary operations helped make it easy for weaker nations to borrow at rock-bottom rates. And the operations fostered the view that a euro-zone sovereign borrower would never be allowed to fail

Do you see some kind of analogy with what happened in the USA with the Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and the Start of the Credit Crisis?

I just want to take attention to the net short positions on EURUSD of the non commercials on the COT report.

Our friends at zero hedge and above top secret are commenting also this.

However I missed something important it is the "most impressive flight from the Treasuries since the great quant crash of 2007".

Something really important is going on.

So let check again the charts.

1.The first thing to do is to look at the interpretations by zero hedge of the current situation. We have really unusual short position by the non commercials indicated by the COT report.

2. When we had something similar the EUR/USD was 1000 pips lower historically. Why>

3. The French banks are repatriating funds and ther is a proof by the weekly update of the custodial Treasury Holdings which dropped by 21 billions dollars.

That leads to the conclusion that the EUR/USD is overvaluated at least 1000 pips and the pair is going to collapse. A waterfall on the Euro is about to come.


We can have a second opinion

Now if we examine historically the pattern. Yest indeed never in the COT report we had this kind of extreme positions. However historically we can see two basic patterns.

1. The crossing of the positions between the commercials and the large traders: The pair makes a major turn

2. Extremes of the positions between the positions leading again of major turns. The explanation is that everybody who wanted to buy or sell has already done that and that is setting for a room of correction.

OK I am not fortune teller this is what the charts are telling us. If the charts are correct the Euro has to correct NOW.