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Circular Trendlines

  • #1,601
  • Feb 29, 2012 10:57am Feb 29, 2012 10:57am
Quoting egkid
Hello brother
Sorry for late reply forgive me was very busy and as u can see PA mess with traders view not easy
Any way
I agree with u and depends on my time we got 10 trading days to reach the top "end of this month 29 FEB"

my top not agree with urs any how looking forward to see weekly close above 31 that will make me feel safe for my long.
E/U
My long closed with++
And have sell @3460
Today 29 Feb, let's watch
  • #1,602
  • Edited 12:00pm Feb 29, 2012 11:40am | Edited 12:00pm
Here is the circle analysis on RSI
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 208 KB
  • #1,603
  • Feb 29, 2012 2:41pm Feb 29, 2012 2:41pm
The Full Moon line in yellow was broken, as well as the blue line, and those 2 levels wont hold longer, nor would they be visited soon. According to the H1 chart, next major support would be the vicinity of the 2 horizontal lines. Around 3200
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_MoonCycle_H1.jpg Size: 120 KB
  • #1,604
  • Edited 3:05pm Mar 1, 2012 10:26am | Edited 3:05pm
So far the downward move target is around 3160-3200.
So short for now.
Lets see how the EUR will react to the blue median line.

There are 7 important fibonacci overlap zones between 3160-3200 area.

Strong Buy sentiment at that area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 147 KB
  • #1,605
  • Mar 2, 2012 8:23am Mar 2, 2012 8:23am
Usually a spear like thrust toward a important zone, is not a good sign to put orders against the trend in that area. For now the thrust downwards is putting a word of caution on a buy at 3150-3160 zone. If you are on a sell from yesterday, then the way things are progressing right now, could break 3150 zone. If such a situation happens then the shifted dotted black circle could be a primary target, but we will have to see.
Overall situation is very good for sellers and its better to put all buys on hold until some form of a consolidation happense at 3150 zone.

Quoting Kambooj
So far the downward move target is around 3160-3200.
So short for now.
Lets see how the EUR will react to the blue median line.

There are 7 important fibonacci overlap zones between 3160-3200 area.

Strong Buy sentiment at that area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H2.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #1,606
  • Mar 2, 2012 8:29am Mar 2, 2012 8:29am
Quoting Kambooj
Usually a spear like thrust toward a important zone, is not a good sign to put orders against the trend in that area. For now the thrust downwards is putting a word of caution on a buy at 3150-3160 zone. If you are on a sell from yesterday, then the way things are progressing right now, could break 3150 zone. If such a situation happens then the shifted dotted black circle could be a primary target, but we will have to see.
Overall situation is very good for sellers and its better to put all buys on hold until some form of a consolidation happense...
Kambooj,

Many thanks, yesterday, you really made my day...first I hesitated at going SHORT at 1.3335...but after analyzing your circles...I got convinced EUR/USD was destined for a drop so I went SHORT...good rewards...however I just off at 1.3210....waiting to SHORT again around 1.3250-1.3275 zone..if only we get there today...congrats..keep it up!
There is always a price for promises you don't keep!
  • #1,607
  • Mar 2, 2012 8:36am Mar 2, 2012 8:36am
RSI price action went as expected on a previous post.

Current situation is not safe for a buy even though RSI is at 20 on hourly

Here is the reason:

Quoting Kambooj
Here is the circle analysis on RSI
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 173 KB
  • #1,608
  • Mar 2, 2012 8:39am Mar 2, 2012 8:39am
You are welcomed
Quoting DragonFire
Kambooj,

Many thanks, yesterday, you really made my day...first I hesitated at going SHORT at 1.3335...but after analyzing your circles...I got convinced EUR/USD was destined for a drop so I went SHORT...good rewards...however I just off at 1.3210....waiting to SHORT again around 1.3250-1.3275 zone..if only we get there today...congrats..keep it up!
  • #1,609
  • Mar 2, 2012 8:50am Mar 2, 2012 8:50am
3210 should be fine.
Because of the following analysis:

Quoting DragonFire
Kambooj,

Many thanks, yesterday, you really made my day...first I hesitated at going SHORT at 1.3335...but after analyzing your circles...I got convinced EUR/USD was destined for a drop so I went SHORT...good rewards...however I just off at 1.3210....waiting to SHORT again around 1.3250-1.3275 zone..if only we get there today...congrats..keep it up!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 122 KB
  • #1,610
  • Mar 2, 2012 11:26am Mar 2, 2012 11:26am
Quoting Kambooj
3210 should be fine.
Because of the following analysis:
Sideways@32, No 3150 Yet
Wish u happy weekend bro
C U Monday
  • #1,611
  • Mar 2, 2012 11:53am Mar 2, 2012 11:53am
high probability soybeans short if anyone trades it... thats the inital setup... black arrows are venus sign ingresses
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Soybeans_short.png Size: 35 KB

with circles look like this
wonder if u got anything on soybeans kambooj?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Soybeans_Weekly.png Size: 22 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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would appreciate it
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,612
  • Mar 5, 2012 7:18am Mar 5, 2012 7:18am
As expected before the region of 3160 did get hit

The reaction upwards has been a mediocare reaction upwards

Given the fact that 7 fibonacci levels has overlapped in that region a stronger reaction upwards to at least 3250 is expected. This has not happened which basically means that the thrust downwards is strong. If you are long from 3160 region, then its better to close the trade and stand aside. Since motion is adhering to the inside region of the shown circle at a spot that has less stability than the pole of the circle, chances are that intention of price action is to break the circle and drop further down.

This drop can happen from the current position of the EUR and go to the next fibonacci level in the following post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post5435120

This level corresponds roughly to the region of 3050-3080 level. If price action does that, then most probably the 3160 region will become a strong resistance, rather than support. So a better trade setup would be a buy around 3050-3080 level.

The current position of price action and its undecided nature can introduce another possibility around 3210-3240 region and that is a movement upwards or sideways that in somehow will end at EITHER OF the 2 red circles shown, and then drop downwards. In both scenarios its a bit risky to go on a buy, because if the drop happens to 3080 level, its a big loss
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #1,613
  • Mar 5, 2012 7:31am Mar 5, 2012 7:31am
HERE are sell and buy spots when motion gets close to important RSI levels
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #1,614
  • Mar 5, 2012 7:40am Mar 5, 2012 7:40am
I had to adjust some of the arrows from the previous moon chart on H1:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...10#post5431810

due to the fact that the times that I put the arrows were not exact on some of the ones in previous weeks.

Here is the moon chart on H1.

We can see support along Line #1 and Resistance around Line #2, which could point to rangebound action happening for a while until the time of the Full Moon, which is March 8.

This also goes hand in hand with our RSI circle analysis too, and will probably be looking for a major move to happen on either March 7, 8 or 9.

Have to recheck everything around that area. For now sell at 3220-3250 and buy at 3160-3170 until 2 more days pass.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #1,615
  • Mar 5, 2012 7:50am Mar 5, 2012 7:50am
Quoting Kambooj
I had to adjust some of the arrows from the previous moon chart on H1:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...10#post5431810

due to the fact that the times that I put the arrows were not exact on some of the ones in previous weeks.

Here is the moon chart on H1.

We can see support along Line #1 and Resistance around Line #2, which could point to rangebound action happening for a while until the time of the Full Moon, which is March 8.

This also goes hand in hand with our RSI circle analysis too, and will probably...
Kambooj,

thanks for the good work..research has shown that those work on their passion for free normally do a decent and diligent job than those who work for money and your is not an exception..

do you at times fathom into your graph issues of Greece debt talks?
There is always a price for promises you don't keep!
  • #1,616
  • Mar 5, 2012 9:03am Mar 5, 2012 9:03am
Thanks, still a student, not an expert.

In answering your question I really dont know how to put the crisis of greek into my daily trading on the M5 chart or the hourly one.

I tried once to try to put fundamentals with technicals and I screwed up.

I think fundamentals affect the weekly chart more than the intraday charts such as M5 of H1. I had a situation few weeks ago, trying to figure out direction by checking the news about greece after the bailout, and trying to see that after the news whether we are going up or down.

I failed on my personal trades trying to put the 2 together, and I figured it probably has a better effect on the weekly chart. Because on the weekly chart going 200-300 pips against what you expect is normal.

I have a friend who has majored in political science and business and from time to time I ask him what he thinks overall about the situation in Europe, and he says that overall its gonna get worst and it will affect the situation with the EUR/USD to go down.

More what I think it happens in intraday trading, is that you have all the owners of the banks speaking to each other, and deciding where they want the EUR to end up by 3 months/6 months/1 year.

So even after the news comes out, the pair does not go in the direction that it should:

ie if its bad news its gotta go down
if its good news its gonna go up

is more complicated than it meets the eye.

I believe that at certain nodes in the market, there is a group of traders/entities, or whatever you want to call it, that they dont make the big move until their plan of how to make the move is set between them.

So for example when the talks with Greece was going on and the bail out package was given to them, one would expect that 3600 should have been reached, but I have noticed on numerous times that its like a game that these folks play.

They first see how everyone else is thinking about what has happened then they strategize whats the best way to fake everybody and get to where they want, then moves are made to clear all stoplosses and then the real move starts to happen.

If you think about it, its pretty logical.

What would you do if you had 500 Million dollar at your disposal and you wanted to make money?
Wouldnt you pay few people to figure out for you where are all the stoplosses placed?
Wouldnt you use market psychology to confuse people for a while before you get to your destination?

So they do the same thing.

How can the economy of a region gets worst day by day, and yet their currency continues to show imporovement within that period. It doesnt make sense, but it makes sense if certain key banks and players in the market have the money to trade this pair and make it go where they want it to go before everything plunges.




Quoting DragonFire
Kambooj,

thanks for the good work..research has shown that those work on their passion for free normally do a decent and diligent job than those who work for money and your is not an exception..

do you at times fathom into your graph issues of Greece debt talks?
  • #1,617
  • Mar 5, 2012 9:09am Mar 5, 2012 9:09am
Quoting Kambooj
Thanks, still a student, not an expert.

In answering your question I really dont know how to put the crisis of greek into my daily trading on the M5 chart or the hourly one.

I tried once to try to put fundamentals with technicals and I screwed up.

I think fundamentals affect the weekly chart more than the intraday charts such as M5 of H1. I had a situation few weeks ago, trying to figure out direction by checking the news about greece after the bailout, and trying to see that after the news whether we are going up or down.

I failed on...
Kambooj,

Thanks a lot.
There is always a price for promises you don't keep!
  • #1,618
  • Mar 5, 2012 9:17am Mar 5, 2012 9:17am
Here we go...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Daily_RSI.jpg Size: 169 KB
  • #1,619
  • Mar 5, 2012 9:24am Mar 5, 2012 9:24am
Lets see how the blue circle will be able to hold on to the motion coming downwards. Be aware that if 3150-3160 is solidly broken, then thats not a good sign for going long. We need consolidation to be able to go long at that level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M30.jpg Size: 110 KB
  • #1,620
  • Mar 5, 2012 9:32am Mar 5, 2012 9:32am
Here is one additional Note on the Hourly Fib Levels
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 145 KB
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